What Robert Gates Leaves Behind

Australia

During the course of his five years as defence secretary, Robert Gates has worked hard to reinvigorate the US military’s antipodean relations. Most significantly, he reassured Australians that the US military would remain engaged in Asia. Incoming Defence Secretary Leon Panetta will therefore inherit a strengthened defence relationship in which Australians, for the first time in decades, seem prepared to accept an enhanced US military presence on Australian soil.

During Gates’ first year in office a change of government in Australia led to a withdrawal of Australian combat troops from Iraq and a re-examination of Australian support for the US global war on terror. Australia proved willing to increase its troop contribution in Afghanistan, though demurred from accepting command of Uruzgan Province after a Dutch withdrawal in 2009. This increased tension between the US military and Australian Defence Force, yet Gates was sensible enough not to embarrass the Australian government by pressing the point publicly.

Also in 2009, Australia released a defence white paper that called for significant spending on maritime and air capabilities suitable for high-end conflict. The white paper illustrated the widening gap between the thinking of US and Australian defence planners. Gates and US planners seemed distracted by Afghanistan and focused on future conflicts involving hybrid threats from non-state actors. Australia’s defence planners were instead concerned about a rising China, increased strategic uncertainty between major powers in Asia, and growing pessimism about the fiscal foundations of US security guarantees.

Though his president twice cancelled visits to Australia, Gates made several – the most significant to Melbourne last year for the annual AUSMIN talks between Australian and US foreign and defence ministers. The talks included a significant public diplomacy effort by the United States, with town hall style meetings and extended media engagements. The message was clear – America was engaged in Asia. That message was backed up by the announcement of a bilateral track on the US Global Force Posture Review, as well as joint security cooperation in the global commons of space, cyber, and maritime.

This month the annual Lowy Institute poll recorded that a majority (55 percent) of Australians would welcome an enhanced US force posture in Australia. It’s a surprising result, and due in part to the work of Gates. As Australia reviews its own military force posture with an eye on the increasing security complexities of the Indo-Pacific Peninsula, it looks likely that US and Australian military forces will become increasingly entwined in Asia.

James Brown is the Military Associate at the Lowy Institute for International Policy