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As with any bilateral relationship, China and North Korea have good reasons to cooperate, but also potential sources of conflict. Conventional wisdom suggests that although China has many issues with North Korea, it still has greater incentives to ensure the survival of the regime. But to get a better understanding of the situation, perhaps it would be better to turn that logic on its head: despite there being an array of reasons for China to support North Korea, what potential problems are there that could deepen the political gap between the two countries?
The potential sources of conflict can be explored on two levels. At the purely bilateral level, China has experienced numerous problems along its border with North Korea. Economic relations, often taken as evidence of China’s vigorous support of North Korea, are also a growing source of friction due to the significant trade imbalance between the two countries. At the international level, meanwhile, North Korea’s increasingly bold military provocations, and its continuing nuclear programme, have adversely affected China’s own reputation. In addition, US alliances with South Korea and Japan have been strengthened as a result of the Kim Jong-il regime’s provocations. China is no doubt extremely frustrated with such developments.
Of course, the border issues between China and North Korea are at times no less messy than those with the 14 other countries that abut China. Still, there are two reasons why the North Korean border sometimes proves particularly tricky.
The first reason is illegal activity involving North Korean government agents. Among other illicit activities, Office 39 of the Korean Workers’ Party is believed to be involved in illegal weapons trading through foreign trading companies, gold smuggling, drug trafficking, and the distribution of so-called super dollars – nearly perfect forgeries of US banknotes. Second, these illegal activities are closely intertwined with one another. For example, massive human trafficking is linked with illegal border crossings by North Korean defectors. The smuggling of contraband, meanwhile, has caused serious corruption problems as it involves officials who are in charge of border management on both sides. In addition, drug trafficking from North Korea is closely connected with China’s criminal organizations not only along the border, but across the entire country.
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