Pakistan appears terrified of an unfriendly government (or at least a pro-India one) assuming power in Afghanistan in 2014, when the United States and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) are expected to hand over most security responsibilities to Afghan forces.
In an effort to establish a pro-Pakistani regime in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, is believed by many to be facilitating attacks on U.S. military outposts in Afghanistan, including assisting in the coordinated attack on the U.S. embassy and NATO headquarters in Kabul in September. Some believe the ISI also played a pivotal role in the assassination of former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani.
None of these actions suggest a friendly disposition toward Afghanistan or the United States. Instead, the Pakistani government’s actions appear to be a play for influence, based around a misguided security policy.
Many U.S. commentators argue that Pakistan is engaging in such counter-productive actions (while also receiving large amounts of U.S. economic and military aid) because it wants to prevent India from gaining a foothold in Afghanistan. But it’s unclear how undermining the Kabul government and the nascent Afghan military really helps it secure strategic depth against India.
Pakistan appears to hope that ISAF and the United States will fail in Afghanistan, and that the current democratic Afghan government (electoral irregularities notwithstanding) collapses. Failure of the current or a post-Karzai government would eventually enable Pakistan to bring the Taliban back to power in the hope that this new government would abandon Karzai’s policy of building friendly relations with its immediate neighbors such as India, and instead rely on Pakistan.
But if India were to be removed from the equation, would Pakistan morph into a cooperative player? Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is reported to have personally delivered a threat to then-President Pervez Musharraf that the United States would bomb Pakistan “back to the Stone Age” if it didn’t cooperate on the global war on terror. Even then, though, Musharraf apparently deliberated over whether he could survive a potential U.S attack. This moment has set the tone ever since – Islamabad having to be coerced into co-operating.
Yet the irony in all this is that India’s much-hyped presence in Afghanistan amounts mostly to moderate economic assistance, construction projects, educational training and providing vital medical aid in remote areas.
Kabul and New Delhi have, admittedly, inked an agreement under which India will provide some training to the Afghan military. However, the broader agreement was focused far more on developing economic ties rather than military ones.
India and the United States share the common objective of a stable, democratic, and functional government to prevent a return of the Taliban. To help guarantee this, India doesn’t want Afghanistan to collapse into the instability that cast such a shadow over the region in the 1990s.
Unfortunately, India remains a bogeyman for Pakistan’s political-military-intelligence complex. Until policy makers in Pakistan radically alter their mindset and reject terror as a foreign policy tool, their country can never be truly secure – with or without Indian influence in Afghanistan.
Srini Sitaraman is Associate Professor of Political Science Department of Political Science at Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts.
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Grant
Pakistan is correct in seeing India as a strategic threat, after all it is. Just the same as Pakistan is a strategic threat to India. However I think Pakistan is making the potentially fatal mistake of thinking that hard power can substitute for a strong state. If Pakistan wants greater influence in Afghanistan and a better position politically it needs a stable nation with an efficient civil service, real taxes on corporations and enforcement of taxes on the rich*, a military and intelligence agency under the control of civilians and rule of law. States that can’t manage that tend not to do as well as states that can, and Pakistan certainly won’t be able to maintain influence in Afghanistan outside of money and weapons to preferred groups. Additionally the chances for real peace with India are not probable unless they can keep the military and militant groups from ruining things, something which is far more likely with a strong state.
*Who are fairly well known for not even bothering to pretend to pay them.
Yang zi
Indian views China’s relationship with Pakistan the same way, so india shouldn’t blame Pakistan for been paranoid. It is nice to see Pakistan and India is trying to path things up.
The world is filled with paranoid, the poster Leonard R is a prime example. Imanging how many paranoids are there in India, Pak and China
Rajeev
@Yang Zi, it is funny that you say this “Indian views China’s relationship with Pakistan the same way, so india shouldn’t blame Pakistan for been paranoid.” Let us see how China would react when India will create NATO-like block with Japan, Vietnam and Australia and the US, which seems to boiling up considering the aggressive overtures by Chinese. Let me know the Chinese reaction of apparent containment,yes the exact thing Chinese is doing by providing nuclear weapons to a terrorist state.
Also, good going with the relationship as the friendly overtures from Pakistan will haunt in Xianjing province by providing more than enough canon fodder. Pakistan, which was allied with the US, from independence till late 90’s did not take even a moment bite US. back – yes, bite the hand that feeds it, will spare China. I can’t be more happy for you! Let the great Chinese friendship prosper and just like how they send American F-16 to your country for reverse engineering, they would sell out China for yet another deal. (haha)
The author here only suggested the paranoia prevalent in Pakistan where people in that country are fed as dose of conspiracy theories while completely dismaying the things that go in their own background by their own secret allies aka (Taliban, TTP). Somehow, even that is India’s, Israel’s, U.S.’s and Europe’s fault.
Yang zi
NATO like alliance? Be my guest, do it.
Rajah
You’re one of the Yang Zi.
Jawadff
Just moderate economic assistance ? More like 2 billion dollars a year and pushing the afghan govt to turn a blind eye to india intelligence supporting terrorist in Pakistan
Such hypocrites the us spends so much time and effort to stop other countries becoming friendly with Iran . Iran is a small country has no serious military no bOrder with America and no history of attacking foriegn countries
Yet the us expects Pakistan to turn a blind eye abOut the India. Threat India is a much larger country the worlds largest arms Importer and deployed nuclear missiles on the indo oak border in 2001.
Pakistan does not want the us to loose it is just against the pro India. Northern alliance a group India supported in the afghan civil war
Pakistan has no us style massive media controlling massive lobbying military industrial complex
Pakistan like all countries faces threats and takes action to safe guard them. A Indian controlled Afghanistan would mean more attacks on Pakistan from kunarr province in Afghanistan already 80 soldiers have died
The Indian threat is real, whilst the us faces no real threat is still has 1000 overseas bases Pakistan has a right to promote its interest
Osama Ashfaq
This article is a very very distorted view of a very complex scenario in Afghanistan.
Just to put the things in perspective, it is in Pakistan’s interest that Afghanistan should be a stable and friendly country to every one in the region because when Afghanistan is unstable, Pakistan is the first country that is directly impacted, followed by Perhaps Iran.
Secondly, i am amazed at how the Indian political pundits have now become the self imposed saviors of the Afghans. Every where i turn i hear the Billions India is pouring into Afghanistan. Good work but gentlemen where were you when Pakistan had to accommodate Millions and Millions of refugees from Afghanistan. We accommodated them in our cities, in our businesses, in our educational institutes. and by the way, we did this all with out the millions of so called Dollars from the USA. The mighty US of A abandoned Pakistan and Afghanistan, when it achieved its goals. So called Friend.
Professor Burhanuddin Rabbani was a friend to Pakistan and this chap, who is the so called President of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, took refuge in Pakistan when the soviets came. Rabbani’s death is a blow to Afghanistan and an irreparable loss and with him Pakistan also lost a friend and chance to finally settle issues in Afghanistan through dialog. Blaming it on ISI is the height of irresponsibility and i hope sane heads in India and the USA realize that such rhetoric shall lead us no where. I find it very amusing that as the deadline for withdrawal from Afghanistan is coming closer, the tempo of the blame games is also rising. Some how, Pakistan is now to blame for every thing although Pakistan is the country which apprehended the highest numbers of AL-QAEDA fighters in the world. Just google for this info.
Lastly, USA and India are playing with fire in Afghanistan. Both USA and India are setting the stage for a future civil war in Afghanistan by supporting the Northern Alliance dominated Afghan National Army and central government at the expense of Pashtuns (who are the majority). What the western and some eastern commentators do not understand is that whom they call Taliban are actually Pashtun tribes fighting to oust the US forces from their lands. They have been at this for centuries. These Pashtun tribes are on both sides of the border and have strong historic and famliy links with population in Pakistan. Some of these Pashtun tribes are now also fighting Pakistan Army because we stupidly and blindly followed the US directives and entered regular army units into their areas and made enemies out of our own people. What the US and India has to realize that supporting one group in Afghanistan against another has never worked in this region and the Pashtuns would never accept the dominance of another group of Afghans. The only way forward is to engage with every one equally. But if the US and Indians are naive enough to continue supporting certain ethnicities over another, then i guess Pakistan just can’t stay idle. The Ball is now in the US and Indian court. My advice to the Indians, disconnect from the US policies in Afghanistan and work with the regional powers to formalize a political settlement in Afghanistan. My advice to the US, get out of Afghanistan before it is too late.
Harish C Menon
“but gentlemen where were you when Pakistan had to accommodate Millions and Millions of refugees from Afghanistan. We accommodated them in our cities”
–Oh kindly spare us the melodrama on your large-hearted “accommodation”. Pakistan had to accommodate them — along with the al-Qaeda operatives — because Pakistan, along with the US, created the situation in the first place so that it could whack India. Or so it though till Pakistan ended with a black eye given by the Taliban.
Right from the days of breeding mujahideen mentality, thanks to Gen. Zia’s filthy Islamic funadmentalism, to the blatant airlifting of senior al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders at the start of the US attacks on Afghanistan — Pakistan has been hand in glove with the terrorists of Afghanistan. Is it any wonder then that the Pak army was found with its pants down when bin Laden was parceled to the next world amid his chillum and houries — bang in the centre of ISI’s palm in Abbottabad? And then you offer homilies to accommodation? Sheesh!
Harish C Menon
“Blaming it on ISI is the height of irresponsibility”
–Exactly! Like it is irresponsible to say that bin Laden could not have found a haven in Abbottabad without the Pak Army’s help. Like it is irresponsible to say that ISI has always been in cahoots with terrorists. Like it is irresponsible to say that the Pak army has basically been a double-game player.
“Some how, Pakistan is now to blame for every thing although Pakistan is the country which apprehended the highest numbers of AL-QAEDA fighters in the world.”
–Yeah right! Pakistan always ended up catching the al Qaeda No2 2/3 — and note that it is always No 2/3 and not No 1 — just before the arrival of a US delegate or a senior Pak official’s visit to the US or a major international conference. Baradar was caught when he sought to skirt his handlers in the ISI… and ultimately al Qaeda No 1 was caught being made love to by the Pak army!
sdf
i think a professor who is indian and biased should not be feeding his opinions to the world. Rather just show facts from both sides. one sided facts are half truths and distort the whole image. we all need to just learn more of the global picture from all sides and increase tolerance and work harder to work together not against each other. Let something good be in history from our generation instead of hate and intolerance.
Bharateeya
Well said. Too many biased people here because they’ve been exposed to biased, manipulative articles.