While Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping was in Washington last week, U.S. President Barack Obama and the leader-in-waiting had much to talk about. Top diplomats on both sides had prepared a wish list for the meeting, but issues like Iran, Syria and North Korea will likely remain irresolvable for the foreseeable future – at least until after the 18th Party Congress, when Xi will be anointed the next leader of the People’s Republic. The meeting, however, wasn’t simply much ado about nothing. At the very least, Xi’s visit may have provided a preface for the next chapter in the Sino-U.S. relationship, replete with mutual expectations.
One issue that was certainly on Xi’s mind is Taiwan. With Taiwan’s elections wrapped up and the incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou in office for another four-year term, Xi had an opportunity to persuade Washington to stop prolonging the “inevitable” and allow the “Chinese people” across the Taiwan Strait to resolve their political differences. So why was there scant mention of Taiwan between Xi and Obama? One reason could be because Xi felt that time is on Beijing’s side.
In light of the thaw in relations between Taipei and Beijing over the past four years, Washington’s inclination could conceivably be to keep doing more of the same. To be sure, U.S. policy toward Taiwan over the past four years could be characterized as a form of “strategic ambiguity” (a policy which has been in the U.S. playbook for the past two decades), an approach that has been useful to the extent that it has helped to minimize the probability of conflict across the Taiwan Strait and afforded the United States flexibility to deal with a host of other volatile issues throughout the world. Yet the outcome that may be “inevitable” on the current trajectory is that conflict will ensue as long as Taiwan’s sovereignty remains at risk.
At the core of the issue is the interpretation of the “status quo” in Washington. While there appears to be an emerging societal consensus about the status quo in Taiwan, there needs to be a more accurate corresponding representation of it in Washington. Refusal to address the widening sovereignty gap in the Taiwan Strait is a potential source of instability. Creeping abandonment of U.S. support for Taiwan's de-facto sovereignty, defined in terms of the Republic of China (Taiwan), has the potential to create growing resentment on both sides of the political spectrum in Taiwan – and thus greater uncertainty in the Taiwan Strait.
The solution for enduring peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait should be the active promotion of trust, equality, and dignity in a manner consistent with the U.S. policy and values. Gradual adjustments in U.S. policy to reflect a more accurate representation of the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait would offset Beijing’s attempts to marginalize Taiwan. In other words, ambiguity may have finally outlived its utility.
The military balance in the Taiwan Strait isn’t what it was in 1995-1996. And the Taiwanese electorate isn’t the same as it was more than a decade ago. Moreover, Xi is no Hu. The Obama administration (or the next administration for that matter) should learn from the lessons of past U.S. administrations and adopt a policy based on increasing clarity about the objective reality in the Taiwan Strait.
Russell Hsiao is a senior research fellow at the Project 2049 Institute.








Chris
I’m not exactly familiar with Taiwan-China relations during the 1995-1996; can you recommend any literature to get up to speed? Something a bit more intellectual than Wikipedia preferably.
taiwandc
The book Strait Talk by Prof. Nancy Tucker has a couple of good chapters (pp. 213-230).
If you want something online, go to the Taiwan Communique page http://www.taiwandc.org/twcom/ and take a look at issues no. 64 through 73, which cover those two years. You’ll get a pretty good feel for the major issues in US-Taiwan-China relations
Major Lowen Gil Marquez, Phil Army
Taiwan has its own sovereignty and there freedom is built-in already in every citizen of its Taiwan Country.
megakids
Taiwan does not have its own sovereignty. Its status quo is given, and has always been “given” by a fine balance point between the US and China, and that point is being tilted towards China’s favor in the last 10 years and increasingly so.
Liang1a
Status quo for Taiwanese is perfectly obvious. It means keeping things the way they are which is
1. Taiwan retaining its self-administration;
2. Taiwan does not try to be independent;
3. Increasing trade and other interactions between the two parts of China.
As far as I know this is also the understanding of the mainland. What the mainland wants is a more formal treaty or agreement between the two that spells out the time frame for reunification. The offer is 50 years of “self-administrative status” and then reunification modeled on Hong Kong.
My personal feeling is that Taiwan should establish a treaty for indefinite self-administration with the guarantee of non-independence. Reunification is contingent on the mainland becoming democratic. If the entire Chinese people voted to reunite Taiwan in a national referendum then there is legal, moral, and national justification for reunification.
Aogin
@Liang1a I hope your idea will come into fruition. That is an ideal arrangement for Taiwan, if ever it plans to reunify with the Mainland.
Liang1a
Below are some figures for Taiwan people’s public opinions on reunfication and status quo at the link indicated:
http://www.kmt.org.tw/english/page.aspx?type=article&mnum=114&anum=10442
If you go to the above link you will see an opinion poll of Taiwan people on the question of independence.
Public attitude toward Taiwan’s future
Declare independence immediately 12%
Declare independence later 13%
Maintain status quo forever 53%
Unification with the Mainland later 9%
Unification with the Mainland immediately 2%
So only 25% want independence with 11% wanting reunification. The vast majority or 53% want status quo forever. Some 11% apparently have no opinions.
The_Observer
That 11% is probably thinking of emmigrating and to the USA in particular.
Richard
I see this as a long term problem for China although it is doubeless long term.
The Taiwanese started with old KMT president Chiang who vowed to destroy the mainland Communists and return to power.After President Lee Teng Hui,Taiwan is now a full fledged democracy with two political parties with 50% support each on both sides.
China has been forced by the circumstances because of presence and support of DPP in Taiwan to support President Ma and not to pusue strongly its reunification agenda with Taiwan.
But the longer this drags on,the more difficult it is for Taiwan to return to the fold of motherland.
The future will depend on economic and political development of both territories,it must be such that the Taiwanese people are willing to consider joining back to China.
Passerby
The author said: “…The solution for enduring peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait should be the active promotion of trust, equality, and dignity in a manner consistent with the U.S. policy and values…”
My question is: why U.S. policy and especially why US values while the US is a foreign party to an internal dispute between two factions of the same country. Instead, the solution for enduring peace must be consistent with the will of both the people of Taiwan and the people of PRC; and none of them wants Taiwan independence.
If you read it carefully, the main thrust of this article is that the author is advocating more US arms sales to Taiwan.
Liang1a
Passerby wrote:
February 24, 2012 at 12:00 am
The author said: “…The solution for enduring peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait should be the active promotion of trust, equality, and dignity in a manner consistent with the U.S. policy and values…”
My question is: why U.S. policy and especially why US values while the US is a foreign party to an internal dispute between two factions of the same country. Instead, the solution for enduring peace must be consistent with the will of both the people of Taiwan and the people of PRC; and none of them wants Taiwan independence.
If you read it carefully, the main thrust of this article is that the author is advocating more US arms sales to Taiwan.
========================
You’re right again, Passerby. It is objectionable and detestable that the US is intruding itself into the internal affairs of China. Why should the Chinese pay any attention to the values of the US, especially to the policy of the US? What is the policy of the US anyway? Obviously the US policy is to weaken China as a nation and not necessarily to promote the weldare of the Taiwan people. This is why the Chinese people other than the comprador traitors don’t like the US. It keeps trying to meddle and manipulate Chinese internal affairs to the detriment and harm of the Chinese people.
guest
“…active promotion of trust, equality, and dignity in a manner consistent with the U.S. policy and values”
How does anyone still say that with a straight face?
@Liang1a
US policy is actually to make their leaders rich at the expense of their people. It is exactly the same policy as your chicom masters except chicoms murder their own citizens while Americans murder other people’s citizens.
Grasshopper
Taiwan will maintain its status quo for another 100-200 years, at least.