This month, I’ll be speaking with Zhu Feng, an internationally renowned expert on North Korea and nuclear disarmament. Zhu is the deputy director of Peking University’s Center for International and Strategic Studies and one of China’s leading scholars of international relations. He’s a frequent guest on Chinese TV and enjoys high-level policy access as an advisor to China’s leaders.
North Korea is a major diplomatic headache for Chinese leaders, and China is central to understanding the behaviour of the reclusive state. As tensions have risen again on the Korean Peninsula over the sinking of a South Korean ship and an exchange of fire between the two countries, all eyes have been on China. As the source of 60 percent of the North’s foreign trade and the country’s only major ally, China is the only country that appears to have much influence. However, China has consistently refused to censure North Korea’s leaders, keeping the country’s food and oil lifelines open despite hopes that it would use them to discipline its neighbour.
The relationship between the two Republics was ‘forged in blood’ during the Korean War, which is remembered in China as a victory against the United States. In the 1950s, the two sides shared a common ideology, as well as manifold common enemies. But since reform and opening, they have had less and less in common, with analysts noting frequent rows, although they are still formally bound by a mutual defence treaty. Zhu is a critic of China’s North Korean policy, describing the alliance as ‘morbid comradeship.’ In an editorial published in English last year, he warned: ‘If North Korea fails to restrain itself, and China’s approach remains tantamount to coddling a dangerous, nuclear-armed state, strategic rivalry across East Asia might revive around a Washington-Tokyo-Seoul axis vis-à-vis a China-North Korea coalition.’
China’s relationship with North Korea has grown costly, both in direct foreign aid and diplomatically. It strains ties with the United States as well as China’s northeast Asian neighbours, and fears of North Korea could drive Japan to seek a nuclear armoury, triggering a regional arms race. But China has been unable to extricate itself, fearing an influx of refugees if the totalitarian regime collapses. Reunification of the Korean peninsula could also bring US troops stationed in South Korea up to the Chinese border.
We look forward to seeing your questions! Please send them to blogeditor@lowyinstitute.org.
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John Chan
North Korea is the real headache for USA and its lackeys Japan and SKorea. They failed to engage NK in constructive dialog, and they became obsessed with NK to the degree of hysteria because NK’s independent mindedness, they blame anything in sight for the failure they dealt with NK.
Cam
North Korea is proven to be the real headache for CCP too. Kim and his stubborn fighting peopledon’t trust the red China. NKorea is not easily bullied by China for sure. Apprently, Kim is not a yes man unlike China wishes. If the chinese keeps bullying, this time the nuclear test won’t test near China border as it did last time.
Grant
Constructive dialog. With a nation that has, in the very recent past, kidnapped Americas, sunken South Korean ships, bombed South Korean territory, sent agents to murder South Koreans originally from North Korea and shot South Korean civilians on North Korean territory. And this isn’t even just jitters from upcoming changes in power. Ever since the Korean War North Korea has engaged in terrorism, assassinations and attempted assassinations, kidnappings and hijackings. They are in no way interested in meaningful discussion, rather North Korea occasionally offers talks it has no intention of showing any honesty in and hides behind China.
What you claim to call ‘independent mindedness’ (ironically ignoring the total lack of the ability to show any such thing in North Korea) I call a brinkmanship state with no interest in anything other than the North Korean first family and the North Korean military. If anything, North Korea is the single most likely nation in the entire world to start another major war.
John Chan
Even Cam admitted the independent mindedness of NK, Cam said NK is a real headache for China, and NK does not listen to China at all. In fact NK does not listen to anybody and does not let anybody bully it, if it is not independent mindedness, then what is it?
It makes people wonder why does the Westpac keep on blaming China for NK’s bad behaviour since China has no leverage on NK, is it a another plot to undermine China’s integrity and smear China baselessly?
jared
China can indeed bear much of the blame as it applies practically no diplomatic pressure against North Korea.
It could enforce UN resolutions.
It could stop repatriating defectors.
It could threaten to hold back aid.
It could stop investment.
China is the great North Korean enabler. North Korea doesn’t listen to the demands of the Chinese because China puts no teeth behind it’s requests; tacitly condoning the sinking of the Cheonan, the shelling of Yeonpyong, the constant threats, kidnapping and demanding of ransoms, and so on.
Grant
China’s the only major supporter North Korea has and one of the few things keeping the state from collapsing. This isn’t even a case such as where the U.S has trouble criticizing Israel because of the Holocaust and the Jewish minority in America. The Chinese leaders don’t have to worry about national elections and yet they still insist on backing a nation that has constantly forced China into bad positions. If China’s so scared that cutting off economic aid would send millions of refugees into China then why don’t they just delay diplomatic meetings and order state news to be more critical of North Korea?
Cam
Everyone knows why China keeps propping the Kim dynasty regime, even she doesn’t always Kim’s behaviors. Te answer is China doesn’t want a united Korean nation under Skorea command on its border. It is the best to keep Koreas divided and Nkore as a buffer state and furthermore, to exploit the Nkorea’s resources.
a_canadian_observer
Birds of the same feathers flock together.
John Chan
From Cam, Grant and a_Canadian_observer’s comments, we can conclude that the Westpac does not have consistency, they change their argument on the wind, as long as it can bash China baselessly, they even would present arguments contradicting themselves. One minute they said China could not make NK do anything, next minute they said China was only one could exert influence, they were talking through both sides of the mouth.
Once they found they had screwed up the argument, they changed subject to avoid the embracement. SKoreans were bragging they could trick China into selling NK with money, SK was on the verge of reining in NK; now Cam blamed China was in the way for Korea unification, another example of shameless Westpac behaviour, never takes responsibility, always blame somebody for their own screw-ups.
Pyngili
Right, #12: If you’re wlnilig to give up an extension of any of the expiring tax cuts, maybe we can manage one more foreign war before we go bankrupt. I doubt that China would extend us additional credit to finance an invasion of North Korea.Reply
Grant
Not really, unless you’re working under the rather ludicrous theory that Cam, a_Canadian_observer and I have any knowledge of each other. It’s called a diversity of ideas, something you apparently can’t stand even when you take advantage of it to espouse nationalist rhetoric obsessed with accusations of imperialism.
a_canadian_observer
@Grant: dont be bothered by John Chan’s comment. That’s just another flavor of his sign of losing the debate. :)
Gyre
Interesting choice of words there. An ‘axis’ versus a ‘coalition’. I wonder if it was deliberate or if it’s different in Chinese.
PeterDownUnder
LOL Westpac is a well respected bank here in Australia please don’t use its name in vain. Thing about China and NK is how would China feel if America provided the same assistance to Tibetan, Uigher, Mongolian and Taiwanese seccesionists. Whatever the differences you guys are arming an enemy propping it up. Whatever CCP’s dillemas with NK it is the CCP that is propping it up.
I’m not blaming the CCP alone though. CCPs only become major factor since SK ditched NK after 10 years of propping it up under the hippie liberalists. Give them rice, cash etc etc and they return the favour with a nuclear bomb testing. Ever since NK lost SK support the void was filled with the CCP. NK would of fallen soon after the Soviet collapse if it wasn’t for the hippie liberals.
The hippie liberals of Korea are the disenfranchised of the conservative (dictatorial) past. Many of these politicians have truly believed in the communist paradise back in the past to have reality shoved in their face with the Soviet collapse. Although they claim to be liberal these days they still have strong communist sentiment.
SK needs stronger leadership more towards the CCP model. In east asia alone we have two extremes of governmental autocracy with China and Japan. SK should be leaning more towards the CCP path with technocracy and nationalism not like Japans liberalism and ineffective populism.
John
Sorry. I disagree with your analysis of this issue.
I will explain more later if you want.
PeterDownUnder
Id love to hear your opinion
captainjohann
Western observers always look with jaundiced eye when it comes to COMINTERN countries.they failed to see sino/soviet rift and aChinese invasion of Vietnam so soon after US withdrawal.Now North Korea and South unification is something which worries China more as well as Japan. But it is something very good for containing emerging China.US must work for unification of two Koreas.
Partition of North Korea is very possible
It is clear that the peace between the Koreas will break down in the future despite Russian attempts to stabilize it. It is possible for a peaceful unification if Kim Jong Il dies and his son or any military leader that overthrow his youngest son want unification.
With the economy gets worse, food donation to NK will go down. Expect them to be even more aggressive. The best decision for South Korea is to have a preemptive strike against the North. North Korea’s nuclear weapons are questionable and in its infant stages. With enough military cover, at least Seoul can get a greater buffer zone between Seoul and NK artillery armies.
Everyone is waiting to see what happens. Maybe his youngest son will start economic progress and give up his nukes, it would be ideal. Either way, if he doesn’t start economic progress and keep his nukes, there will probably be a Korean war because Seoul will either go nuclear or more likely launch a preemptive strike to unify by military force. Of course, it depends on a the president of South Korea. If he is a hardliner, this will certainly be possible, if it is a liberal, it would be impossible. Either way, South Korea will not accept a nuclear neighbor in the North, neither will Japan, China, and Russia. NK has little value and China will not go to war to save it. If anything, they will grab some buffer zone and invade from the North if Seoul attacks and its clear North Korea will fall.
jim1980
I am going to criticize The Diplomat for posting another blaming China on North Korea article. Come on guy, every other month you got another freaking “expert” who write same old article, same argument blaming China on North Korea. I know that’s your magazine. It is getting so tiresome and so freaking one-side. No wonder most Chinese (including many oversea Chinese) is so disgusting with Western media in general.
Comes on guy, can you at least blaming North Korea for its behavior and blame South Korea for its ultraconservative President. Those two parties desired 90% of worsening situation in Korea.