Taiwan’s ruling KMT may have won three out of five mayoral races at the weekend, but the victory is sounding a little hollow.
According to results from the island’s Central Election Commission, the KMT triumphed in Taipei, Sinbei city, and Taichung. The opposition Democratic Progressive Party, meanwhile, secured wins in the southern cities of Kaohsiung and Tainan.
With both parties having suggested prior to the polls that three wins for either could be considered ‘overall’ victory, surely the KMT has plenty to celebrate? Not necessarily.
Scratch a little beneath the surface and the picture doesn’t look quite so rosy for the KMT. According to the commission’s latest results, the DPP's overall share of the vote for the five contests was 49.9 percent, compared with 44.5 percent for the KMT. The DPP’s share—which saw it secure an about 400,000 majority in the popular vote—is a marked increase from the 43 percent it received in the same five contests in 2008.
According to J. Michael Cole, deputy news editor at the Taipei Times, some have argued that this drop in support for the KMT is because of scepticism over President Ma Ying-jeou’s cross-strait policies. ‘But we have to be careful when reaching that conclusion, as these were local elections, and voters tended to focus on the "what can your candidate do for me locally" rather than whether Ma should talk politics with Hu Jintao,’ Cole told me.
So, is all politics completely local? Cole told me that he believes recent opinion polls still offer some useful insights into the 2012 presidential race.
‘What’s perhaps more indicative of what could happen in 2012 is the fact that Ma's approval ratings continue to drop and now lag behind those of the DPP's Tsai Ing-wen,’ he said. ‘Those ratings, rather than solely reflecting local considerations, also take into account public perceptions of Ma's cross-strait policies, which are likely to play no small role in the 2012 campaign and its outcome.’
Cole also raised the interesting point that Beijing’s response to the latest results could have an interesting impact on the 2012 race, depending on whether it responds with ‘carrots or sticks.’
‘As 2012 approaches, Beijing is expected to want to start talking politics with the Ma administration. If it sees reluctance on Ma's part to do so, it could react angrily, which is likely to hurt Ma and force Taiwanese to rally round the flag. This would compound nationalism and help the DPP,’ Cole said.
‘Conversely, Beijing could swallow its pride, show itself more patient than perhaps it would like to, and give Ma a whole new package of sweeteners, which could help get him re-elected and buy time —that is, four more years of a Ma presidency.’
Cole warned that the KMT could also face some problems on the domestic front, noting that in Greater Taichung, KMT candidate Jason Hu was barely re-elected in what should be a party stronghold, despite the DPP candidate having only been parachuted in six months prior to the election.
But ultimately, Cole said he believes China will loom largest over the election. ‘In a nutshell, I think Ma's greatest challenge will be selling his China policy to the Taiwanese electorate and somehow convincing Beijing to be patient and to avoid creating unnecessary pitfalls…or pushing too hard for talks that touch on sovereignty and which could therefore backfire’.
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jim1980
Jason, do you know Taipei Times is basically mouthpiece of DPP? They haven’t written any objective pieces for years.
How about quote something different from several sources (both DPP leaned and Nationalist leaned)? Jason, I am not want to hard on you constantly, but your objective is something I question why you even have this blog.
Peter Teacher
@jim1980
Do you think youd understand more why he has this blog if he agreed with you more??
Dirk
DPP is only good at lying and manipulating. If you only get your information from the Taipei Times or Liberty Times. You will be manipulated by the DPP.
zaku
The remnants of Chiang Kai-Shek regime are well known for election frauds and using criminal gangs (i.e. the infamous Green Gang of Shanghai) to quell oppositions.
Fair play is a word alien to the Chinese.
For example, Election under Chinese Nationalist regime, unlike election in the West, do not have serial numbers, like in Ukranian elections; all elections that were held in open classroom before 2008 are now held in windowless small rooms and temples. Even election monitors are now assigned by the ruling party.
John Chan
Do you mean the elections in the last 20 years in Taiwan are shows set up by the KMT? If it is, how can there was a DPP president who ruled Taiwan for 8 years? How can there are so many DPP controlled prefectures, cities and legislative members? How can there is no military coup?
The election in the US is the biggest fiasco in the world; its result is decided by amount of money, mudsling, TV time and insiders manipulation. Al Gore has the popular vote but lost the presidency to a warmonger by decisions of unelected officials and judges with arbitrary vote counting and ruling.
So zaku, what is your mumbling all about? Bad mouthing Chinese again?
jim1980
let’s give a quick review on Taiwan newspaper industry.
It has two factions: DPP leaned newspapers like Liberty Time and Taipei News
and KMT leaned newspapers like China Post. Taipei News tends to write a lot of opinion pieces against KMT and against China in general. China Post, on the other hand, tend to like writing more pieces against DPP, more pro China pieces.
As for election, KMT got fewer election votes because 1) poor economic situation since 2008 due to world economic condition, 2) KMT mishandle a couple of natural disasters.
Under the those conditions, DPP actually fair poorer than expected in the election. They were expected to win at least one, maybe even two additional seats as late as last month. In reality, both sides basically hold serves with KMT wins three of five seats.
As for the poll, it is not very meaningful right now since next election (presidential election) is in two years. Also, there were only 60% of eligible Taiwanese vote in the last election. There is no way to know how they going to vote in next election.
P.S. Most newspaper, when they cited Taipei news, tends to give qualified that it is DPP leaned newspaper. Jason should at least give disclaimer for that.
ellsworth
KMT affiliated media is much… much… more than China Post.
United Daily New (owned by ex-KMT military), China Times (owned by Chinese Communist affiliated Want-Want Group), People’s Daily (owned by KMT affiliated Nownews), Next Magazine (owned by pro-KMT Hong Kong Tycoon Lei)
That excludes TVs. (3 national TVs and 1 public TV (whose chairman was recently forced to quit by Ma regime) TVBS (owned by Chinese Communist HK operatives), CTS (KMT owned TV), Era TV (KMT affiliated busines)
bacchuslu
WOW….your analysis on taiwan’s media is terribly wrong.
Mike
@jim1980:
What’s not objective in those comments? It’s stating numbers. That the DPP got 400,000 more votes than the KMT is a fact, not some “green” conspiracy! If you paid any attention to Taiwanese media, you’d also realize that the great majority of pan-blue newspapers in Taiwan also see the result as a “hollow” victory for the KMT and that Ma may have to slow down his cross-strait policies. Hell, even the United Daily News and Want Want China Times have said that!
If you read Jason’s piece carefully, you’d also notice that it presents both sides, both assessments, that the result was good and not so good for the KMT. What would “objective” be for you? That this proves that Taiwan want unification? That the KMT did great? That all Taiwanese love the KMT? Come on! In fact, despite the 400,000 vote difference, the story even says that people shouldn’t read too much into its implications in terms of the results not being good for the KMT. In other words, it argues **against** overoptimism on the part of DPP supporters.
Also, the Taipei Times isn’t a mouthpiece for the DPP, as you claim. It has no ties to the party, gets no money from it, and strives to provide balanced reporting by giving both main parties equal weight. Its stories always have the KMT side’s view and always quotes its officials.
Don’t just see the name Taipei Times and assume that it’s biased. Please read the article before you pass judgment and criticize it on actual content rather than just dismiss it out of hand.
jim1980
In several occasions (not just this case), when there is a conflict between two parties, Jason often stated an opinion and only cited one side of newspaper to support his argument (while completely failed acknowledge other side). I am not sure that’s due to his own bias or just poor research. It mislead the reader and give misrepresentation of situation. It is just poor journalist. That’s my objection.
Ok. Taipei news is fair and balance as Fox news.
John Chan
Michael Cole has a point that there is an enormous challenge ahead of Ma to sell China to the Taiwan people, because the end point of reunification of China and Taiwan is inevitable. The dead line of the reunification is when China has nuclear deterrent parity with the US. The earlier Ma can sell China to Taiwan people the smoother the transition will be. Twenty years later the living standard in China would be similar to the living standard in Taiwan, meanwhile the integration in economy, social, travelling, political, maybe even military will get tighter, the reunification can be done better than the reunification between West Germany and East Germany. If Ma can’t rise to the occasion, achieve his historical mission and leave a good name in the Chinese history book it will be his missing chance to be great.
The leadership of DPP has a difficult decision to make; they can either be trialed for treason or become part of the political movement to change China becoming more democratic.
Anti-China clique is doing its best to cause heavy losses to China and Taiwan in the reunification process. So far the leadership in China has shown that it is determine to reunify Taiwan in a win-win conclusion.
jennifer
what do you mean reunification? taiwan and china were never unified. china just wishes to annex taiwan and it is part of ma’s scheme to slowly allow this to happen. the fact that you used the word “sell” just shows how absurd and sick you are in the head. it is clear taiwanese people don’t want to be a part of china, why won’t you just accept it and stop trying to sell the idea of china to us.
John Chan
Japanese pretending Taiwanese can shout and yell, but they cannot achieve their hideous goal of swallowing Taiwan like they had swallowed RyuKyu Kingdom. Japan has to risk Armageddon of Japan if they want Taiwan. The US is better to keep its nose clean, focus on fixing its financial disaster and look after its own people. There is nothing in Taiwan for the US, but poison pill. Revisionist history is not history; it is only a delusion in the mind of cursed people.
“Sell” in North American slang means “promote, convince, persuade or explain.”