When I spoke with Korea analyst Gordon Flake this week following the North Korean shelling of the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, he made the reasonable point that China’s failure to come down harder on Pyongyang following the sinking of the South Korean ship the Cheonan earlier this year may actually have encouraged this latest act of aggression.
The reason for China tip-toeing around Kim Jong-il is usually given as either it not wanting to precipitate a collapse of the North Korean regime (and therefore risk a flood of refugees), or else a supposed commitment to not interfering in the internal affairs of other nations (a policy it adheres to strictly, except when it doesn’t).
So, self interest will be the prime motivator for any Chinese effort to pressure North Korea. And this is fine—any nation’s leaders can only be expected to put their own country’s interests first. But presumably China doesn’t see it as in its own interests, or in the least desirable, to have the United States station tactical nuclear weapons in a neighbour’s territory.
Yet this is exactly the idea that was floated by South Korean Defence Minister Kim Tae-young earlier this week. Speaking Monday, Kim said the issue could be raised during a joint military committee meeting with the United States scheduled for next month.
The South Korean government quickly backpedalled from this suggestion, with an official from the presidential office on Tuesday stating that the two countries hadn’t discussed redeploying nuclear weapons and that the goal was still for a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. Still, the idea is now out there and it’s difficult to imagine officials in Beijing not squirming at the thought of having tactical nukes on South Korean soil for the first time in 19 years.
More immediately, the United States and South Korea have also announced their intention to conduct a joint military exercise in the Yellow Sea in response to the North Korean shelling, a drill that looks set to include the aircraft carrier USS George Washington. China has today said it’s concerned by the move, although in more measured terms than it used in August when the PLA warned of long-term damage to US-China ties if another drill went ahead.
The exercises, although they had been planned in some form anyway to take place this month, are still clearly a signal to North Korea, but perhaps also say something to China—if Beijing isn’t willing to turn the screws a little, then the US will have to do so.
There’s an ongoing debate about how much leverage China really has, a discussion complicated by the fact that Kim Jong-il is far from rational and so unlikely to respond to traditional forms of pressure in predictable ways. Still, the fact that he went calling not once, but twice to China this year—presumably in part to discuss the succession issue—suggests that Beijing does at least have his ear. Even if he doesn’t want to listen to what’s being said…
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Gunboat Diplomacy
China will not move a finger to discourage Nth Korea because if it falls then the US will have a united Korea right on Chinas doorstep.
Gunboat diplomacy may not work either because China just built 4 new Aircraft Carriers and they have plenty of fighter jets, rockets, submarines and Nuclear Bombs, so this may get nasty.
Since Nth Korea can fire off a minimum 250,000 bombs an hour the US had better be alert.
“Infantry must move forward to close with the enemy. It must shoot in order to move…. To halt under fire is folly. To halt under fire and not fire back is suicide. Officers must set the example” – General George Patton Jr.
I think South Korea is committing suicide by not fighting back against Nth Korea.
Zlim
so all out war? is that what you want to see?
i think it’s pretty clear that the north is doing this sort of thing to get attention and blackmail concessions from everyone. not that i’m necessarily saying they don’t have the stomach for a fight, but i really don’t believe they truly want to go to war
Zodiac
China has not been able to complete one aircraft carrier, much less four. They’ve been trying to do that for decades. Even if they could manage to launch one in a couple of years, China still needs sea-variant fighters to use on the carrier. What they got now are pieces of junk not worthy of a fight against the highly experienced and technologically more advanced U.S. naval fighters.
John Chan
Brits and Germans thought sea battles were decided by gun to gun on big battleships, but they lost the control of sea to the US and Japanese who sank those big gun battleship with aeroplanes. Nowadays China is working on to sink the US aircraft carriers by ASBM or saturation bombing with missiles, and then sends its aircraft carriers for mop-up operations. If the US military planners think like you. the US navy is doomed.
angelus512
I really hate it when people post in IGNORANCE. China DOES NOT have 4 aircraft carriers. They have one that was retrofitted which they purchased from Russia.
It isn’t even operational.
They have no operational aircraft carriers of any kind currently and that is unlikely to change until about 2015. And even if they did thats 4 medium sized aircraft carriers vs the US 12-14 super carriers. Super carriers are equal to 2 normal carriers generally speaking.
At least have a passing understanding for China’s military capability. Which btw is not particularly impressive. Its good but it doesn’t even begin to match US power. Serious youre all influenced far too heavily by media beat ups of a “rising china”….
US could wipe them off the map power for power.
mareo2
Of course they don’t, they don’t give a yuan about killed south koreans before, today or tomorrow. Wait and see how the Kim family make another nuclear test as soon as they reach another milestone in their nuclear weapons program thanks to the PRC’s complete lack of control of nuclear related material crossing the Sino-Korea border. In a few years NK is going to nuke a population and China’s reaction is going to be a big Yaaaaaaaawn…. and say “we take note and ask both sides to restrain from escalate and bla, bla, bla…”
SE962582C
Do forgive one for Playing the Role of the Devil’s Advocate, but one would very much doubt the sincerity, and the genuineness of the sincerely, of his concern for Korea, the Koreas, the Korean Peninsula and the Korean-Speaking Peoples, by a certain commentator, the commentator of certain comments, seeing that his somewhat peculiar, unique and special, as well as pure and unadulterated, interest in and focus upon, instead, primarily and largely, the year 1979, China, Vietnam and the Events of the same year the year 1979.
Was he by any chance a War Veteran of one of the Wars fought in that particular year, the year 1979, or a relative and a relation thereof and thereto? One DOES think that We the Readers ought to be told and be informed!
Michael Li
The USA maintains an alliance with S Korea and Japan. They maintain that it is “good for everyone” and that it “ensures peace.” This may be true for South Korea and Japan, but it is most certainly not so for China. The American military protects South Korea and Japan, but how does it protect China? In short it does not – in fact it actively prepares itself for a hypothetical conflict with that country, thereby threatening it. The US would be foolish to expect assistance from someone they are aligned against.
China does not have the luxury of only having to worry about North Korea. Its vulnerability to American military coercion prevents any security cooperation with that nation. There has been not genuine effort on the part of the Americans to discuss the implications of their deployments with China, South Korea, and Japan as equals. Instead, it encourages ongoing conflicts between them. A truly long-term strategy is one that enables all of the peace-seeking people of Asia to feel secure, not just paying members of the American alliance.
The author’s insulting dismissal of Chinese leaders as “cynical” and “shortsighted” can just as easily be applied to the Obama administration. Their refusal to work for the security of ALL nations and their focus on securing specific blocs divides the world and keeps nations like China fearful of attack. I do not believe it is a coincidence that the 2 surviving members of the “axis of evil” both jump-started nuclear programs after Iraq was invaded. What other means of deterrence do they have after George Bush decided to vomit on the principle of sovereignty?
So long as the US refuses to change its divisive policy of promoting allies at the expense of others, regimes like North Korea will be continually allowed to exist. After all, when you see the enemy at your gates, you open the prison doors and arm the murderers and thieves not because you endorse them, but because there is no one left to defend you.
A good leader nation will recognize that if it wants global cohesion and cooperation ALL of the nations must be made to feel secure. I am in no way defending the policies of North Korea, but only trying to explain why others (ie China) do not feel the same way about them. In that spirit, I wish everyone here to feel some compassion for other people’s security instead of trying to look for imaginary superhero fantasies of messianic invasions.
John Chan
I don’t think Obama knows where is he coming or going. The US government is totally high jacked by the hardcore rightwing. The Pentagon, the Treasury and the Fed are run by the guys from George Bush gang. The State Department is run by a short fuse hot lips. Each of those department runs its own show. The only thing Obama can do is to give speeches, and borrow more money to buy votes, and hope he will get his contract renewed in two years time. The Change he brought to the world when he was first elected has changed to the worse domestically and internationally. So your rational argument most likely will fall on deaf ears in this site, as well as the author of this article and the people in the US, Japan and India. The author of this article is known for “China can do no right, or China is always wrong.”
SE962582C
One Word; “NO”. Nope.
As to why, notwithstanding and regardless of the reasons, it would surely be another and separate question.
Jaques
I always enjoy reading your analysis and commentary Mr Miks. Thank you for providing such interesting insight.
However this time I think it is a mistake to say that Kim is not rational. Whilst North korea benefits greatly from fears about their “irrationality”, in fact, every move they make makes sense. Creating crises and then gaining concessions is now a widely acknowledged strategy. I think it was George Friedman at Stratfor who first came up with the “Crazy Fearsome Cripple” theory. North korea lost its life support (almost literally) when the Soviet System Collapsed. Who would have guessed that the Kim Dynasty would still be in power in 2010? When i look at their behaviour since 1991, in terms of regime survival as opposed to providing the best quality life for the population, I see a well executed plan. The slightly more confusing behaviour recently may be the result of the sucession process.
China is of course acting in its own interest. Status Quo, Delay delay delay. The worrisome thing is that North Korea seem to be pushing harder and harder to create their crises, (the bar is being constantly raised). I have been discussing this issue with Chinese analysts and strategists (as well as interested friends) and i have been asking them the following questions
1 – If (an impossible scenario thought experiment) China decided to copy the North Korean political system in its entirety back to China today, would the Chinese people accept the change? Do they see any contradiction in their answer to this question and their Government’s support for NK? Do they think China can become a responsible “World Leader” if this kind of contradiction is present?
2 – If (another thought experiment) Russia did to China what North Korea is doing to the South, would China remain as calm as South Korea? If a more powerful nation was providing cover and support to Russia throughout this aggression, what opinion of the more powerful nation would the Chinese people hold? Does China see any future backlash if the North korean system does collapse? Presumably there will be a lot of people learning a lot about how the Kim Dynasty managed to survive for so long….
3 – At what point to the Strategic Benefits of North Korea’s system continuing outweigh the costs? (With Japan and South Korea considering various re-arming programmes and justifying them in part because of the NK threat, with the whole world aware of the fact that China is North Korea’s main ally, and as recently as a few months ago was suppressing a UN report about NK’s breaking of international law, )
Many influences weigh on China’s NK policy: The PLA Historical Legacy (despite the PLA / China’s version of this having been proved inaccurate in Soviet documentation) and the almost mythical status of the Korean in Chinese “history” – combined with the PLA’s influnence within the CHinese state. The fact that the Korean War was Mao’s major foreign policy initiative in the early years of the PRC. The (i would argue somewhat overblown given international systems for resolving and managing such problems) potential for a refugee crisis. The fear (again overblown, since the US would surely agree to a phased withdrawl) of a unified Korea putting US forces on the Chinese border. The potential for evidence of Chinese complicity in various NK violations of agreements and INternational Law to be made public. The loss of NK as a card Beijing can play in its much larger-scale negotiations and chessgames with the US… etc etc.
John Chan
@Jaques, do you mean it’s China’s at fault for the misbehaviour of the Kim Dynasty?
Historically Korea (North and South) to China is as reliable as Vietnam. When they need China’s help for their troubles, they called China an ally; they then turned their guns against China the minute their troubles were gone. China suffered nearly one million casualties, not to mention starvation to support North Korea during the Korean War. All this suffering meant nothing to Kim Il-Sung. After the Armistice Agreement was signed, NK turned against China by turning to the Russians until the collapse of USSR. The current apparent close relationship between NK and China is simply because NK has nowhere to turn. It is not because they like China. Koreans have gone to extraordinary lengths to show their dislike of China, even in their written language. They would rather accept the less expressive characters in their written language, than use any Kanji from anywhere else, thus abandoning the link to their heritage. Even Japanese are a lot more practical lot than the Korean and Vietnamese with respect to writing. They accept the necessity of using Chinese Kanji in their language. It is a well-known fact over there that the government of Japan has to regularly release new Chinese Kanji back into their written language since their own writing is just as inexpressive.
Kevin Rudd said “To be fair to China, North Korea doesn’t simply jump when Beijing says jump and North Korea is very much a self-contained political entity,” The people blaming China not get-tough-on-kim are simply bashing China on every opportunity they can get their hands on.
The current hostility between the Koreans is the US, South Koreans, and Japan’s own making. Their arrogance, ignorance, and clumsiness forced North Korea into a corner and made them fight back. If the US, South Korea, and Japan gave North Korea some aid, China would be the biggest loser in the game.
The US is an imperial power in substance. An imperial power only leaves a place of their own accord, or when they can no longer afford to remain. The US will only leave Korea and Japan as the ways the Romans left Britannia and Germania, or the Brits left India and other colonies. So far there is no proof the US will act differently from any previous imperial powers in the history.
The last paragraph is loaded with revisionist history to support Jaques’ full force smear of China. Without the last paragraph his comment may pass as an impartial analysis, unfortunately the anti-China bigots just can’t help to hold their tongues.
Liberty N
Just let the Japanese (and the S. Koreans)take care of their own business by fully rearming and boostimg their defense with nuclear arms! Just let them play fire with fire! The best way to dissuade a gang of thugs’ belligerence is let them know that you’re ready to teach them an unforgettable lesson! Perhaps, the US should step aside and let these regional powers look after those murderous hooligans!
John China
I wondered what keeps the US in the harm’s way, why can’t the US stay home enjoying sun, hotdog and baseball or the gossips of celebrities. The US is thousands miles away from the troubling spots across a vast pool of water, the Pacific. The US does not need to sacrifice the lives of their sons and daughters for thing nobody in Asia will appreciate at all. Go home Yankee. Get the hell out of Asia, stop meddling the affairs of Asian, and stop making Asia a butchering ground for the maniacs in the Pentagon to have fun.