An interesting bit of news from Taiwan that I forgot to mention last week.
According to a computerised simulation conducted by Taiwan’s military, China would capture the island’s capital in just three days if the two sides went to war.
The war games scenario was based on the assumption of conflict taking place next year, with China’s People’s Liberation Army launching air raids before sending in ground troops.
The Washington Times quoted a Taiwanese Defence Ministry official as saying that ‘The purpose of the drill is...to test our defence capabilities in case the People's Liberation Army launched an invasion.’
If that’s the case, then the results must have been something of a blow to Taiwan’s defence planners, and came only days before a report in the Liberty Times quoting a senior intelligence official stating that China is planning to ‘reinforce its defence along its southeast coastlines by increasing the existing some 1,500 missiles to at least 1,800 with an aim to counter America's potential presence in the Taiwan Strait.’
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Jay
This is nonsense on stilts. China does not have the ability to gain air supremacy over Taiwan nor does it have the ability to move and supply the number of troops necessary to take the island. Thus “exercise” seems like an attempt to get more weapons and money for the military.
Julian
Jay, could you share some information that backs your statement up?
Ken
The carrier battle groups in the region are what back that statement up. At least that was what I gathered from his comment.
REM
Julian, and you believe that tw military can back their statement up? They are just that good to admit to their ppl that their army’ s that useless?
dennis waite
yes this is a serious situation in the china seas….we can no longer ignore China and north korean Military provocations!!! beating up on nations with camels and road bombs wont win America any friends in the world.
super power nations like France and England will not have the courage to stand beside the USA should we become engaged in open warfare with China ….Nuclear war , will not last as long as our current forces engage in battle… days not months ….as far as -JAY- said ??
(and China does not have the ability to gain air supremacy over Taiwan nor does it have the ability to move and supply the number of troops necessary to take the island) ?? this is not true the whole island will be over in hours at best 1-day for complete military control …China is well organized and has huge pockets and heavy ammunition too support multiple battle fronts and engage American forces at the same time …..
mandrewsf
It is virtually impossible for a war to occur between the PRC and its “renegade” province. Reunification is by and large inevitable short of a total collapse of the PRC government, and Taiwan has too much to risk and too little to gain if it does declare de jure independence.
OnTheRoad
Taiwan has too much to risk to provoke for a war.
Taiwan also has too much to lose if it doesn’t defend itself for preserving its life style of democracy, human rights, and prosperity.
PRC could block the two major ports of Taiwan, and block the sea way between Japan and Taiwan, and between Guam and Taiwan. PRC then knock out the internet, cell phone, and all communication of Taiwan. Next fire its 1400 missiles aimed at Taiwan to destroy Taiwan’s military installations including air force bases and runways, ship yards, army bases, etc. PRC military will then attempt to land on Taiwan.
Taiwan has 200K military personnel, and more than 1M in reserve. They will continue to fight. There is no where else to go, and the majority of them will not surrender easily. They also believe the international community in the 21st century will come to help.
To defeat Taiwan or to destroy Taiwan is not hard. The hard part is to run it. In addition, it will drain PRC’s resources. PRC as a totalitarian country will also suffer from internal power struggle and internal chaos. It’s not a win-win situation.
The vast majority of people in Taiwan want status quo. There are different polls but the trend is that 85% or more at this time want status quo.
In a few decades, when PRC becomes a democracy and respect human rights, and treat its own citizens and others with respect, and stop backing criminal country like N. Korea, the situation may be different. But as of today, both sides call for status quo.
kevin
Basically, what Jay said would be half right. China can gain naval advantage due to most ports are in Taichung and that it is on the side closer to China. But air advantage can be gain through a price. But land advantage is low. There aren’t very much places for troop carrying ships to land. So they need to parachute. Where now Taiwan can secure against parachute attacks, but not air and naval advantage. what Taiwan can only do is to slow down or prolong the battle untill the US or Japanese-american fleet arrive. Against what OnTheRoad says, Taiwan’s ‘open’ military insallments can be destroyed but mountain ranges can’t. So if Taiwan’s military uses the natural mountains, they can hol out untill help or support comes. The difficulty is that China cannot attack or prevent cargo transport from US bases in Guam or Japan because then it will anger US and give US a reason to attack. Like WW2, when japan attacked Pearl Harbor, the US went to war. Agreeing on OnTheRoad says, Taiwan’s military personals won’t give up their nation to China, but they can only defend. Taiwan’s military, using all of its reserves and actives/ natural enviorment, can hold out for at least 3 days but up to 1 and half week. By then the international or Americans will come to aid. To the international, it is too important to lose Taiwan since then China will gain a 200 sea miles of area from east coast of Taiwan on, so the Japanese and Americans will defend and aid Taiwan. Chinese military will not dare to bomb Taiwan since there is always a risk of bombing the nuclear plants and kill the Chinese too, so a bombarment is imposible, China can only rely on the fact that they have more resources and ammo for a long term war, but may not suceed against a US and international combined attack. But now both sides must holds their fire and wait for the things to clear out.
typhoonq
@ Kevin
In the event China was force to invade Taiwan,the likely country to intervene will be US. To what extent US get involved militaryly, at this moment, we do not know.
As year goes by, it will be harder for US to intervene because by then China is better equipped with stealth aircrafts, Anti-ship missiles,stealth nuclear attack submarines and aircraft carriers battle group.
It is unlikely other countries would like to get involved because they see it as a Chinese long drawn civil war. Most countries acknowledge Taiwan is part of
China and this is also documneted in the United Nation.
Hence, there is no case to allege China is invading another sovereign Nation.
Besides, they are also afraid of loosing the Chinese market and potential Chinese missiles attack. They have seen enough blunder made by US involvement
in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Sportbiker
At this moment China does not need to invade Taiwan to claim it. To be honest i don’t think many Taiwanese (especially those from northern part of the island, aka Taipei) would step up against Chinese invading force. Taiwan will most likely surrender as soon as island of Kinmen is taken. Sorry to say this, but Taiwanese are push overs, and cares about their pocket than national pride or democracy.
typhoonq
@ Sportbiker
I too think that most Taiwanese will not put up much resistance when China make the move to retake Taiwan. Most Taiwanese treasure their lives more than protecting their territory and deep down in their heart they know Taiwan is part of Chinese territory and would not want to see Chinese fighting among themselves. They have never experience War since the 1950’s.
It is likely that by 2010 China will take control over Taiwan either thru peaceful reunification or by Military Force.
China will never allow Taiwan to maintain the Status Quo indefinitely.
By then, China military is strong enough to deter US or Japanese Intervention.
typhoonq
@Sportbiker
I am sorry I have made a typing error here. It should be year 2020.
Thinktank
Historically the Chinese are masters in deception,they may have or may not have what have been claimed by many,what is wrong of recognizing PRC as an incoming power ,? I can’t wait for the square off day yet I believe Chinese are rationale people.U have to be one to think like one .O GOD I am blessed !
Johnny
Anyone who follows news will tell you that Taiwan war ’simulations’ are nothing but a tool to get what they want. When they want to scare China they declare that their simulation show that Taiwan can defeat China in a war! No I am not kidding, look at it yourself. The ’simulation’ is just 4 year old and says Taiwan can defeat China!
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,267984,00.html
And now they say that same simulation predicts that they will be defeated in 3 days?
Only thing that I can deduce from it is they are going to ask USA for something huge. Perhaps, permission to secretly build nukes or something serious. Some of us remember how America ‘accidently’ supplied Taiwan the nuclear missile fuses some years ago. What do you guys think?
James Wilson
The PRC is waiting for an opportunity or an incident, or a distraction, for the right time to make its move. And, before other nations (i.e., the US) can respond, a blockade will be imposed and missiles launched against Taiwanese military installations, while a cyberattack disables command systems and government communications. An ultimatum will be issued, that compels foreign governments from aiding Taiwan, lest these actions be perceived as against the PRC itself, which will then play the ‘nuclear threat’ card. Having long ago convinced the rest of world that Taiwan is nothing more than a part of China itself, no other nation will risk response on that basis. Taiwan becomes the sacrificial lamb. Ground forces are moved in by the PRC and occupation becomes a reality. Taiwanese resistance leaders and government officials ‘disappear’ or are captured and sent to “re-education” or forced labor camps on the mainland. Within weeks, the remaining remnants of resistance are overcome. The US and the rest of the world, cowed by the PRC’s aggression, is helpless to act.
JaiHind Mahabali
The Washington post article does not say that China can take Taiwan in 3 days. China wishes that it could take Taiwan in 3 days. Taiwan may counterattack by delivering a crippling blow to Hong Kong, Guang Zhou. They may attack a symbolic target like the Shanghai Airport to Shanghai mag lev train as a warning bow.
Stock market in China may drop by a factor of 5 to 10, if key ports are attacked or destroyed.
No country can drop all of their missiles for a military objective- however coveted.
South Korea, Singapore , Indonesia and Malaysia may not allow their long term ally to fall.
“China is our new friend, Taiwan is our old friend and ally” – that is the unannounced policy.