In my last entry I talked about the inherent conflict of ideals highlighted by two classic works of literature—1984 and Dao De Jing—and what they say about the prospects for the West getting along with China.

I’d like to expand on that a little more by considering the two classic texts of Chinese strategy and diplomacy—The Romance of the Three Kingdoms and Sun Tzi’s Art of War, because their depth of creative duplicity makes The Prince read like How to Win Friends & Influence People.

The Romance of the Three Kingdoms is a long and rambling epic, but at its heart is the story of two generals, Liu Bei and his nemesis Cao Cao, in a quest for supremacy in the twilight of a dynasty. Liu Bei supposedly represents virtue and humility while Cao Cao represents opportunism and ambition. Liu Bei is forced into a leadership position to defend his emperor, and when his emperor dies his followers plead with him to resurrect a new empire. And, although Liu Bei at first refuses, circumstances and the determination of his followers force him to put on the crown.　

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Well, whatever the Chinese leadership’s intentions in terms of spinning the US intervention over the South China Sea, its efforts at domestic propaganda more broadly could be complicated by a small problem—the head of its domestic news service appears to have gone missing in the UK.

According to The Daily Telegraph, which appears to have broken the story in the English press, Wan Wuyi disappeared after being sent on a training course for the official Xinhua News Agency at Oxford University. According to the newspaper, there’s now speculation that he may have defected in what it says would be one of the most senior defections from China ever.

The article notes:

‘Rumours on the Chinese internet suggested Mr Wan may have decided to flee after his reporting landed him on the wrong side of China's leaders. There were also claims he may have been under investigation for corruption. Mr Wan's wife is said to have already emigrated to the UK.

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I asked a couple of days ago what the official Chinese response for domestic consumption was likely to be to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement last week at an Asian security forum in which she called on China to tackle offshore territorial disputes in the South China Sea through international consultations.

Beijing is, of course, furious at what it sees as US intervention in its own backyard, especially as it has preferred dealing with South-east Asian nations on a bilateral basis (and, as I’ve mentioned before, making unilateral decisions like barring Vietnamese fishermen from the area).

A strong indication of how China is likely to try and spin US intervention came with a piece run by the official Xinhua News Agency yesterday that questions US intentions and suggests the involvement of a superpower in the region will only ‘complicate’ matters and ‘bring tragedy’ to those concerned as a result of a strategy of ‘divide and rule’.

The two DVD shops I visited in the past week in Suzhou seemed at first glance about 80 percent smaller than they were two weeks earlier. One now just has a check-out counter fronting one wall and a back door. The second doesn’t even have a back door, but instead a short, dimly lit walkway between a high floor-to-ceiling rack of mainland and Hong Kong DVDs.

When I walked into the second shop, the proprietor pointed at the wall behind the tall rack. I didn't get why at first, but after flipping through the selection on the table at the front door I realized all the DVDs were from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan (with a sprinkling of South Korean and Japanese selections). So I nonchalantly sauntered in the direction the proprietor had pointed me in and, behind the tall shelf of movies, found a doorway from which a dim light was emanating. I stepped through the doorway and found myself surprised once again.

The sale of domestic DVDs is lightly regulated in mainland China, so illicit copies of films by Zhou Ren Fa (Chow Yun Fat), Anthony Tse, Zhao Wei and the two Bing Bings (Li and Fang) are de rigueur in such shops. So are Japanese and South Korean films, and especially South Korean soap operas, which are hugely popular in China (rich boy meets not-as-rich-girl, tries to catch girl, who demurs for many episodes, eventually feeling great affection for the young man whereupon the girl announces she’s going to die—which she does, slowly and painfully and to a flood of tears. Not mine, of course). Chinese local governments don't much mind if their neighbours’ stuff gets ripped off.

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We’ve had a fair bit of coverage recently on the question of whether the Obama administration is starting to push back against China after it came in for widespread criticism early on for supposedly appeasing Beijing.

Further evidence that it is came shortly after we published a strongly worded (and convincing) op-ed by Patrick Cronin arguing that China was going too far with its South China Sea claims and threatening the freedom of movement that's a lifeline of free trade in the region.

Cronin is right that China’s decision to claim the sea as a core interest (alongside Tibet and Taiwan) is troubling and arbitrary, with Beijing claiming, as he notes, the ‘right to control navigation and research activities, not just fishing and seabed resources, within their Exclusive Economic Zones.’

What do China, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United States all have in common? Each executed at least 50 people last year, according to Amnesty International.

To be fair to the other three countries, China is far, far ahead of this pack of dubious distinction, (and to be particularly fair to the United States it is at least able—or willing—to provide a precise number) with thousands believed to have been put to death in 2009. Indeed, according to Amnesty, China executed more people than the rest of the world combined.

Last year’s annual report on the country estimated:

‘A minimum of 7000 death sentences were handed down and 1,700 executions took place. However, the authorities refused to make public national statistics on death sentences and executions and the real figure is undoubtedly higher.’

‘Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!’

Every American, and probably many other nationals, are familiar with the words of ‘The New Colossus’, a sonnet adorning one of the inner walls of the Statue of Liberty and which has for more than a century inspired immigrants seeking a better life.

But what if a place that has been sought out by huddled masses seeking a better life decides, well, that they can’t leave once they’ve arrived? It’s a problem facing many migrants in China who have found themselves trapped in gated communities.

For, while many Western governments grapple with their publics’ fears of crime and social strains (some US states with Mexicans and France with North Africans are just a couple that spring to mind), many Chinese worry about a supposed rising tide of violence and robbery that they believe accompanies migrating labourers.

According to a report in the Globe and Mail, gated villages that have traditionally been seen as signs of affluence are now little more than prisons, with residents sealed in at night by uniformed guards.

The report notes that there are 16 such villages around Beijing which are, contrary to the official line, upsetting locals who say the restrictions on their movements are disrupting their work:
 

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I wrote a few weeks back about my concerns over the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement signed last month between China and Taiwan, a deal that I argued despite some supporters’ protestations had clear political undertones. I said that if Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou wants to take his people down the road of closer economic integration then he should, as China has been, be upfront about what this could mean politically further down the line.

In response to my op-ed I received a friendly email from a diplomat at a Taipei Economic & Cultural Officein Asia (essentially a Taiwanese embassy) thanking me for raising these issues, but also ‘filling me in’ on some more of the background. I appreciated him doing so, and for balance will mention some of the detailed points that he raised.

He told me that (paraphrased here):

1) In a Trade Policy Review released on July 5, the World Trade Organization touted the trade pact with Beijing as “vital” to Taiwan's competitiveness as it could help Taiwan further integrate into the global economy. He also noted that WTO Director General Pascal Lamy said in an interview that with continued improvement in cross-strait ties, Taiwan will be able to attract more foreign investment and sharpen its competitiveness.

2) Ma stressed the economic pact will mainly focus on tariff reductions and exemptions as well as on legal protection of investments and intellectual property rights. He said transparent and institutionalized economic agreements between Taiwan and China will actually promote a more normal cross-strait relationship, thus easing the potential for military confrontations and unnecessary misunderstandings.

3) The signing of the ECFA received majority support from the public in Taiwan. The Mainland Affairs Council announced the results of its latest public opinion survey on May 7, and these showed as much as 69 percent of the public believed that institutionalized cross-strait negotiations are conducive to peace and stability in cross-strait relations.

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This is the third in a series of guest entries on economics and life in Shanghai by Bill Dodson, director of Strategic Analysis at TrendsAsia Ltd and author of the upcoming book ‘China Inside Out: 10 Irreversible Trends Re-shaping China and Its Relationship with the World’. Bill normally blogs at This is China!

A couple of weeks ago, I went to a local Cantonese restaurant in Suzhou to buy some food to take home with me. Suzhou is a relatively small city by Chinese standards (about 1.5 million), and is 75 kilometres west of Shanghai.

But I almost walked straight past the establishment I was looking for because it had been ‘dis-established.’ The restaurant had been completely gutted some time after I had gone there two weeks earlier. I went back empty-handed to the pub I’d just been to and explained to my waiting friends that the restaurant was gone. They were as surprised as I was, noting it had only opened last year.

The same thing happened a few days later, with a different business: heading off to a regular lunch establishment for some Malaysian fried noodles and an iced tea, I was disappointed to find that old haunt had vanished too. A note on the door in English and Chinese said the cafe was permanently closed.

Perhaps the noodle shop closure shouldn’t have come as a surprise—the week before one of the owners had asked us what kind of business she should get involved with in Suzhou.

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Chinese officials on Tuesday reiterated their objection to a joint military exercise between the United States and South Korea, which is expected to take place later this month.

Earlier this month, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said China had expressed ‘serious concern’ over the naval drill, which was scheduled to begin in the Yellow Sea off the west coast of South Korea. Perhaps out of consideration of the protest, Seoul and Washington have reportedly agreed to begin the exercises, which will include the aircraft carrier the USS George Washington, in the Sea of Japan (off South Korea’s east coast) before moving to the Yellow Sea.

The drills were announced after South Korea announced the results of its investigation into the sinking of the Cheonan warship in March, which found that the ship had been torpedoed by a North Korean submarine.

At a press briefing last week, Qin explained China’s opposition to the drill, saying China ‘resolutely opposes foreign warships and fighter jets entering, and flying over, the (West) Sea and adjacent waters and engaging in activities that affect China's security interest.’

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