‘One Vision, One Identity, One Community.’ That’s the ASEAN motto. But what’s the reality? Our bloggers based around this diverse and strategically key region give you an insider’s perspective on politics, security and society in South-east Asia.

How West Will Arm Burma

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The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday announced a relaxation of financial sanctions against Burma for non-profit and humanitarian-related activities. It’s a significant move, and smarter than the action taken by the U.K., Australia and Norway.

Last week, during a trip to Burma, British Prime Minister David Cameron declared his support for the suspension of sanctions. Norway and Australia soon followed suit and said they were dropping sanctions against Burma, too. An arms embargo is therefore virtually all that will be left of these countries’ sanctions, and the European Union is also likely to support the U.K. position in its annual review of Burma policy next week.

If the European Union decides to suspend crucial measures such as an investment ban and visa and financial restrictions on members of the regime, then European policy on Burma will depart dramatically from U.S. policy. Yet given the reality of the situation in Burma, the U.S. caution on the issue seems a much more sensible response to unfolding events.

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Xayaburi Dam Controversy Flares

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Back in December, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia had scored high praise for reaching an agreement that essentially postponed construction of the Xayaburi Dam while further studies could be undertaken into the potential damage to fish stocks and food security in the Lower Mekong Basin.

However, there were doubts over the commitment by Laos simply because of the money at stake – about $3.5 billion. Despite the concerns, Vientiane wants to build a total of 11 dams along the Mekong River and establish itself as the “Battery of Southeast Asia” insisting the dams pose no serious risks.

Authorities in Hanoi and Phnom Penh simply don’t believe this while those in Bangkok – who are financially backing the project and are keen to source electricity from the project – are happy not to notice the neighborly complaints.

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Ruak New Timor-Leste President

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Former freedom fighter Jose Maria de Vasconcelos is the new president of Timor-Leste after winning a peaceful run-off election against Francisco Guterres “Lu Olo” of the opposition Fretilin party. His victory appears promising for stability within the often strife-torn country.

Initial results show that Vasconcelos – also known as Taur Matan Ruak – has won more than 60 percent of the vote for the position, which is largely ceremonial but not without influence in a country plagued by poverty and animosities stemming back to East Timor’s fight for independence from Indonesia.

Ruak is expected to unify opposing factions and in his own words restore some lost dignity among the veterans, widows and their families whose anger at being sidelined by previous governments had led to an astonishing level of violence and bloodshed given Timor-Leste’s short history.

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U.S. Plays Philippines War Games

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Last week, the Philippine government protested what it called China’s incursion into the country’s territorial waters in Scarborough Shoal. It also vociferously opposed North Korea’s decision to launch a rocket into space because of the debris that might land on Philippine soil. But while it has been obsessively suspicious over the real motives of China and North Korea, it readily welcomed the entry of United States troops into the country this week.  

Around 4,500 soldiers from the U.S. Pacific Command have joined 2,300 Filipino troops in the 28th Philippine-U.S. Balikatan (Shoulder-to-Shoulder) exercises that are being held from April 16 to 27. Most of the military exercises will be held in Palawan Province, which is the nearest island to the highly contested Spratly islands. China is among the claimants of these islands.

By April 30, the U.S. and Philippine governments will be meeting in Washington to finalize details of the deployment of additional U.S. troops in the Philippines and the holding of more war games in other parts of the country. News reports suggest U.S. Marines from Okinawa are being moved to Guam and rotated to several Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines.

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ASEAN and the Elephants

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There’s an old Southeast Asian saying: “We are like the grass beneath two elephants. We will be crushed underfoot regardless of whether they fight or make love.” This saying is much repeated these days now that the United States and China are in open competition in the Asia-Pacific region. 

In January, U.S. President Barack Obama announced a new focus on the region. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: “Let’s just talk straight realpolitik. We are in competition with China.” All over the Pacific, she said, China is trying to “come in behind us and come in under us.” 

Militarily, there have been announcements of new deployments of U.S. troops around the region, including marines rotating through Darwin, Australia, and more collaboration between American and Australian air forces, allowing the U.S. another access point in to the disputed South China Sea region. 

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