Japan and Russia would undoubtedly benefit from finding a resolution to the dispute over the Kuril Islands. But domestic pressure is holding them back.
J. Berkshire Miller offers a number of good reasons why Russia and Japan would benefit from setting aside their territorial dispute and concentrating on developing their joint security and economic interests. Unfortunately, no recent development looks sufficiently strong to break the logjam that has blocked progress on this issue for decades.
The core territorial dispute concerns what the Japanese call their Northern Territories and what the Russians term the Southern Kurils. Russian and Japanese historians can cite competing evidence to support their legal claims, but this is irrelevant since the issue can’t be settled by historical or legal reasoning since the problem has long been one of competing contemporary national interests aggravated by national prestige, diverging priorities, and nationalist public opinion that makes it hard for elected politicians to compromise.
As a result, the territorial tensions between Russia and Japan prevent these two countries from aligning together to advance their common security and economic interests. Excluding their territorial dispute, Russia and Japan share several overlapping geopolitical and economic interests that should make them natural partners if not allies.
In East Asia, Russia and Japan confront similar challenges of China’s growing economic and military power as well as North Korea’s nuclear testing and missile launches. Better ties between Moscow and Tokyo might prove to be the catalyst for a long-anticipated geopolitical realignment that sees them adopt a more guarded approach to China’s rise by strengthening their bilateral ties. This repositioning would allow them to concentrate their efforts on matching China’s growing economic and military power. It might also induce the Chinese to moderate their policies towards Russia, Japan and other countries.
Russia and Japan are certainly striving to become more influential players in the Korean issue. For example, the two Koreas, China, and the United States all expect that any Korean peace treaty would be signed by these four countries alone, excluding Russia and Japan from even the negotiations of any treaty.
In the economic realm, meanwhile, Japan and Russia are also finding themselves marginalized from the newly dynamic economies of ASEAN. China and the United States are leading the external competition for their influence by, among other means, offering Association of Southeast Asian countries diverging models for free trade agreements, with diverging principles and memberships.
In addition, the Japanese would like to expand their access to Russia’s natural resources, especially oil and natural gas, while the Russians would like to secure more Japanese investment to modernize their energy and other industries and to develop the Russian Far East. This Russian region’s lagging development and alienation from Moscow represents a long-term security challenge in the face of China’s growing population and economic-military potential.
Photo Credit: Russian Presidential Press and Information Office
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Lucius
Putin’s second coming will change a lot of things in world politics, including an improvement in relationship between Russia and Japan. This will in turn reduce US influence in Asia Pacific. No wonder there’s so much opposition to Putin’s candidacy!
Greg
One needs only to look at the issue in light of Stalin’s opportunistic greed in seizing other countries terriitory in the WW2 period to further Russian social imperialism and advance its geopolitical position. Starting with his cynical and depraved deal with Hitler to carve up Eastern and Northern Europe (I.e Finland, the Baltic States, Romania, Poland), to his dismemberment of Germany and Poland with its attendant ethnic cleansing, rape, thievery and murder. Stalin even tried to reach Denmark and Bring Austria into the Soviet orbit. His occupation of North Korea has resulted in an almost 70 year division of the Korean people. The expulsion of 225,000 Japanese from southern Karafuto/Sakhalin and the same in the Kuriles was unsurprising.
The Russian dictatorship needs to grasp that opportunistic territorrial land grabs in an age of technology do not guarantee security. Its refusal to return these tiny islands to their rightful owners is weakness, not strength. Based on demographic trends, Siberia will continue to grow weaker economically. This opens the door for Chinese intrusion and influence.
Absent a change in policy towards Korea and Japan by Russia, the next war China will wage will be economic and military and the prize of Siberia will drop like a ripe peach into China’s lap.
Olegek
to Greg
February 26, 2012 at 1:23 am
One needs only to look at the issue in light of Stalin’s opportunistic greed in seizing other countries terriitory in the WW2 period to further Russian social imperialism and advance its geopolitical position.
———————
You never ask yourself how many countries were occupied by US after WW II ?
And they are still occupied .
Why ?
. Stalin even tried to reach Denmark and Bring Austria into the Soviet orbit.
——————–
Who have killed Nazi Germany ?
His occupation of North Korea has resulted in an almost 70 year division of the Korean people.
———————–
US should defeat Japan without any help from Josef Stalin.
In such case – Korea and WHOLE CHINA would remain non – communist.
Alas !
The expulsion of 225,000 Japanese from southern Karafuto/Sakhalin and the same in the Kuriles was unsurprising.
————————–
This islands very small -15 600 square kilometers severe climate . population today – about 20 000
in 1945 about 17 000 ….
The Russian dictatorship needs to grasp that opportunistic territorrial land grabs in an age of technology do not guarantee security.
—————–
What do you know ‘bout security ?
Its refusal to return these tiny islands to their rightful owners is weakness, not strength.
———-
Are US going to return islands taken in 1945 in Pacific to Japan ?
TOO weak ?
Based on demographic trends, Siberia will continue to grow weaker economically. This opens the door for Chinese intrusion and influence.
———————
Now Siberia grow up my friend – and a lot of job there ..
Absent a change in policy towards Korea and Japan by Russia, the next war China will wage will be economic and military and the prize of Siberia will drop like a ripe peach into China’s lap.
————————-
You will be surprise BUT today Russia and China – allies ..
Against US for example
redmanrt
Why doesn’t Russian simply “buy” the Kurils from Japan? There are precedents for this sort of arrangement: Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California, Nevada, and Colorado were acquired in this way, force plus 20 million dollars.
Greg
This is too much a nationalist issue in Japan for Russia to buy them off. Btw, Yeltsin offered to sell Kaliningrad (northern East Prussia) to Garmany for some billions in the early 1990s. Germany was too stupid to take them up on it.
Akira Yamamoto
The biggest challenge facing the USA today is the coming demise of the US Dollar and how to prevent it from happening.
Imagine, a world the Dollar is no longer commonly accepted as a trading currency and the US has to pay for all its import using other currencies.What will happen to their standard of living? At the moment, any deficit in trade can simply be offset just by printing more Dollars out of thin air and using these imaginary, ghost Dollars to pay for these imports.So the day, the Dollar tanked is amargeddon for the USA.
They know this and are watching what is happening to the Dollar, carefully and nervously.
A number of countries, nations has started moving away from using the Dollar in their international trade dealing through currency swaps and the promotion of using their own currencies.This trend has not gone unnoticed by the money printing USA and seriously threaten their monopoly on printing the Dollar at their whim and fancy.It is a foregone conclusion that if nations around the world started to move away from using the Dollar, the USA will no longer has the mean to support their living standard and will revert back to a poor nation status!
So this has to be prevented at all cost and hegemony is a useful tool to use, to prevent the Dollar demise.Historically, they have noticed that in time of strive and trouble, nations gravitate towards the Dollar and the Dollar strengthen.
Hence the USA has become a nation that thrives on creating hegemony and trouble around the world.
A strong Russia is not in the USA interest, as Russia is one of the Nation in front, that is actively promoting not using the US Dollar. So, it is in the US interest that Russia and Japan remains at logger head, so to speak.Japan will then remains dependent on the USA and will behave as told, like not to join in using yen and Roubles in their trade.
As History has shown, nothing will prevent the demise of a bloated empire, living and acting beyonds its mean.The US economy is in really bad shape and can no longer support the Nation role as a Global cop.In a last desperate attempt, the US is cutting back on everyday services,the pensions, health care, education and infrastructure maintenance, just to come up with the monies(again borrowed) to support its preeminent military might.The fact is, you cannot be a preeminent nation without being a preeminent trading and manufacturing nation.
a_canadian_observer
@Akira Yamamoto: How is your comment here related to the subject “The Thorn in Japan-Russia Ties”?
Akin Yamamoto
I will summarize my point.
USA interfere in all the nations affair, in one way or another.
They do not want to see a friendly relation between Japan and our big neighbor Russia.
As I explains, friendly relation will result in both nation using the Yen and Roubles at the detriment of the Dollar.
So the USA has encourage the thorny relation by outright proclaiming that it support Japan claim to these Island knowing Russian outright objection.so here is the point, the USA has encourage and perpetrates the thorn out of fear of the Dollar demise.let us ask the Question, if the USA has not interfere or voice strong support for Japan position, perhaps Japan and Russia. Might meet halfway for a settlement. But, big brother preferred position is that the thorn continues.
aaron
The U.S. has a security agreement with Japan, how could it possibly not support Japan’s claims??? Have you ever noticed that Russia regularly flies long range bomber patrols that circle Japan (Tu-95)? The U.S. doesn’t have to do anything; Russian nationalism is enough to keep Japan’s defense planners busy!
klee
I don’t think Japan & Russia will solve their differences on Kuril Islands. If Japan will yield on the terms with Russia. They should also do it with China on their island disputes. As I commented in J. Berkshire Miller’s article. That was his wishful thinking, in fact, is those westerner analysts’ wish. These western commentators want Russia & Japan solves their disputes and then team up to face China. This is just those westerners’ dreams. But, it will not happen.
In fact, Russia is keener to team up with China because they both want to counter US’s influences. They have more interests together. Russia will not cosy with Japan which will remain US’s puppet for the foreseeable future.
China will take back the Diyotai islands from Japan at the same time when Taiwan is back to China’s hands. It is simply because the islands are closer to Taiwan than to Japan. They were belonged to the Nationalist right after WWII when US gave it back to Chiang. But, US twisted the treaty in early 70s’.
I like to see US invade Syria and Iran and to see how the “world superpower” handle 4 wars simultaneously while North Korea maybe thinking their move too. Since US is warmonger country, they probably like to use them to stimulate their economy, or so they think.
Russian generals just warn US not to invade Iran. But, of course, US will not listen. Starting wars is in their DNA.
Greg
More an anti American screed, probably written by a Russian, than contributing anything useful. Russia’s borders will eventually be the Urals and China will take rest. That is the big prize for them, not these littoral islands. What goes around comes around, my friend. If Russia takes your approach, it will end up a Chinese satellite. Btw, I agree with you that these useless wars by the USA are stupid and weaken it severely.