All of this makes Iran a tough competitor on its coastline, undoubtedly capable of raising the threshold for U.S. intervention in the Gulf. But it isn’t, ultimately, insurmountable. Iran’s naval potency diminishes sharply with distance and duration. Iran could mine the Strait, restrict commercial traffic and delay entry to U.S. forces while imposing moderate levels of risk in the meantime. However, its sclerotic command and control systems and lack of survivable land-based air-power betray an enduring inability to enforce a close or continuous blockade of the Straits, much less defeat the U.S. Navy in an open, protracted naval war.
No military balance is static, however, and the current extent of Iran’s naval inferiority isn’t necessarily immutable. Over the longer term, two shifts in the geopolitical landscape bode well for continued improvements to Iran’s prospects at sea. First, the emergence of a weak and divided Iraq in the place of a former existential rival is a geostrategic windfall. Historically, the greater salience of defending land borders has been a principal constraint on the development of naval power in countries with both coastlines and contestable continental frontiers – think China or France or Germany. For Iran, that may no longer be the case. With its western continental approaches now largely secure, and furthermore with the situation to it east improving as the U.S. backs out of Afghanistan, Tehran can channel a progressively greater proportion of is defense expenditure into its Navy.
Second, for China, cultivating Iran’s sea-denial capabilities is emerging as the most cost effective means of diluting U.S. primacy in the Gulf. This matters to Beijing because it is profoundly dependent on the sea-lines traversing the Gulf yet unable to reach or secure them with its own navy – and is therefore vulnerable to a distant U.S. blockade. There’s a reason, after all, why a good number of Iran’s anti-ship missiles are already stamped “Made in China.”
Raoul Heinrichs is Sir Arthur Tange Scholar at the Strategic and Defense Studies Centre, ANU, an editor at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, and Deputy Editor of Pnyx. This article was originally published on the Lowy Interpreter.
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Eugene
How many suiside attack subs are there in Iranian Navy?
B.Causeiknow
Q: How many suicide bombers are there in the US Navy?
B.Causeiknow
Would the Moderator please censure venkat s .kanakamedala for the unnecessary use of upper case font.
venkat s .kanakamedala
IRAN IS DIGGING ITS OWN GRAVE.IT MAY WANT AND WISH TO GO TO STONE ERA.SAME WITH CHINA,NORTH KOREA AND PAKISTAN.IT MAY BE BETTER FOR AMERICA,NATO AND ITS ALLIED FORCES TO GET READY WITH 500,000 MX NUKES OF 15000 MILES RANGE TO USE IN 5 STAGES AGAINST ITS HOSTILE NATIONS.AMERICA AND NATO SHOULD PROGRAM ME ITS NUKES IN SUCH A WAY TO JUDGE NATION(S) AND CONTINENT(S).ULTIMATE VICTORY IS FOR AMERICA,NATO AND ITS ALLIED NATIONS.THE GOD JUDGES PEOPLE AND NATIONS FOR THEIR UNRIGHTEOUSNESS.THAT HAPPENS ON THE DAY OF ARMAGEDDON OR DOOMS DAY.
Judge
Mr. Venkat I feel sorry for you and many like you who think it is all that easy for YOUR AMERICA to come and kill and loot anything and everything with no repercussions. I for one am glad that somebody has the BALLS to stand up to hypocrites that they are. If you think that AMERICA is right I suggest that you pick up a stick and start walking towards Afghanistan to play your part. Im sure you will have pissed your pants multiple times even before you get to fire a single round.
Americas fire power is of no use anymore because they cant afford to fight anymore. Maybe you have been living on MARS because the last I heard, the west is BANKRUPT. NATO & UN are all scams for the general public to think that they have some insurance in case somebody attacks them. Mr.Venkat, I hope that people like you who live on fear and hate learn to live with people from all races PEACEFULLY. AND IF YOU CANT, BE MAN ENOUGH TO CHALLENGE YOUR OPPONENT FACE TO FACE RATHER THEN PLAY YOUR DIRTY GAMES LIKE DHAKA, KASHMIR AND MANY MORE, THE LIST GOES ON AND ON.
The part I agree with you Mr.venkat is the part where I also wish America, NATO and/or ALLIES start a full fledged war in middle east and south asia, specifically “Khurasan”. Then I would like to face men like you Mr.venkat and see who gets the victory. I am not one of those who USES somebody else shoulder to fire a gun. You dont know anything about Iran. If YOUR AMERICA stops doing business with you today, you wont know where to go Mr.venkat so please stop spreading hate. We know you have your interests with the West and that is why you would do anything for the White Skin. Human race is does not breath unless it has something to look forward to so please spare us your WISDOM
venkat s .kanakamedala
IRAN IS DIGGING ITS OWN GRAVE.IT WANT TO GO TO STONE IRAN.SAME CHINA AND PAK ARE WISHING.BETTER AMERICA AND NATO TO PROGRAM ME IT NUKE IN 5 STAGES OF STRIKING THESE COUNTRIES TO DESTROY.THAT IS THE ONLY ULTIMATE SOLUTION.NUKES SHOULD BE PROGRAMMED AGAINST RUSSIA ALSO DUE TO HOSTILE.ON THE DOOMS DAY ALL THESE EVIL NATIONS WILL BE DESTROYED BY AMERICA,NATO N ITS ALLIES.IT HAPPENS ONE DAY.BETTER AMERICA AND NATO SHOULD EQUIP WITH 500,000 MX NUKES WITH 15000 MILES RANGE TO JUDGE NATION(S) N CONTINENT(S).
jayraj
Iran should never make a mistake of attacking the US Navy. In fact, when two US aircraft carriers sail through Hormuz, the appetite to attack was tested. Iranian navy is hardly compatible with the might of US Navy. USS enterprise is in the phasing out phase. Though its been refurbished. The guess is, the seventh fleet led by USS enterprise would make the first strike, if it all the US navy decides to do so. Worst come worse the flagship may suffer severe damages salvaging the crew. And sacrificing the ship, the Pentagon will get a solid mandate for attacking Iran. USS Lincoln and USS Steins or modern nimitz class carriers with impeccable destruction abilities that Iran may not be geared to sustain.
In the desert fox operation, USS Missouri (may not be a carrier) was similarly used and then farewelled through the hands of the president then. Eventually it was used in a Hollywood film ‘under siege’ and then wrecked to a level of ready-to-junk. This is my imagination.