Iran’s navy may not be a match for the U.S. on the high seas, but the Strait of Hormuz offers plenty of ways for it to make life tricky.
New Year in the Persian Gulf has opened in the usual atmosphere of scurrility, mistrust and competition. The Iranian nuclear crisis – already animated by economic and cyber warfare, an unrelenting diplomatic offensive, and a systematic program of sabotage, espionage and assassination – has, over the past month, incorporated yet another aspect: the specter of naval confrontation.
Iran is planning a new round of naval war games in February. These follow an earlier round, which unfolded against the backdrop of two unusually bold threats: the first, to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the imposition of new sanctions; the second, to attack a U.S. aircraft carrier should it return to the Gulf.
Neither threat has so far been acted upon, of course, nor are they likely to be. As a number of analysts have noted, any attempt by Iran to disrupt the passage of oil out of the Gulf would be a largely self-defeating move, given its current economic fragility and abiding dependence on oil exports.
Rather, Iranian bellicosity is better understood as an attempt to shape expectations about its future behavior. In the rough-and-tumble world of international politics, a reputation for recklessness, even irrationality, can be a useful bargaining tool, as North Korean negotiating behavior attests. In particular, Iran is determined to drive up the risks of an attack on its territory, especially its nuclear facilities, by conveying the resolve and ability to respond with naval operations along a spectrum of intensity, from low level harassment of merchant shipping to the kind of hit-and-run attacks on U.S. naval platforms more commonly associated with Chinese strategy in the Western Pacific.
That questions remain about the credibility of these threats is cold comfort for U.S. military planners, though. For them, a preoccupation with capabilities rather than intentions, which can change, means they now confront a potentially asymmetric challenge in the Gulf at a time when they are trying to make deep cuts in the defense budget and reorient their strategic focus to Asia. Indeed, evidence suggests that Washington is taking Tehran’s threats seriously.
This is no surprise. By regional standards, the Iranian navy represents an atypically strong coastal force with a coherent force structure designed not to defeat a superior naval power so much as impose prohibitive costs on intervening in Iran’s southern air and maritime approaches. Built for sea denial, it comprises submarines, mines and fast attack craft armed with anti-ship cruise missiles. Each of these capabilities is cheap relative to the platforms against which they’re being fielded, and each places a disproportionate burden on the side seeking to defend against them. Submarines are hard to find; mines take a long time to clear; and Fast Attack Craft, especially when used in numbers and dispersed formations, are difficult to prevent closing to a range at which their missiles become a serious risk to even well protected ships.
The effects of this force are magnified by congenial naval geography. By contrast with the Western Pacific, with its oceanic expanses and concentric archipelagic chains, the Persian Gulf is a narrow body of water, making it conducive to offensive denial operations. It has one constricted entry point. This creates a funneling effect that allows Iranian forces to concentrate their firepower. Short distances make operations less surveillance intensive, and therefore less technologically demanding. They also compress the warning time available to an enemy defending against missile strikes, while long stretches of noisy coastal water create an ideal acoustic environment for lurking Iranian submarines.
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Eugene
How many suiside attack subs are there in Iranian Navy?
B.Causeiknow
Q: How many suicide bombers are there in the US Navy?
B.Causeiknow
Would the Moderator please censure venkat s .kanakamedala for the unnecessary use of upper case font.
venkat s .kanakamedala
IRAN IS DIGGING ITS OWN GRAVE.IT MAY WANT AND WISH TO GO TO STONE ERA.SAME WITH CHINA,NORTH KOREA AND PAKISTAN.IT MAY BE BETTER FOR AMERICA,NATO AND ITS ALLIED FORCES TO GET READY WITH 500,000 MX NUKES OF 15000 MILES RANGE TO USE IN 5 STAGES AGAINST ITS HOSTILE NATIONS.AMERICA AND NATO SHOULD PROGRAM ME ITS NUKES IN SUCH A WAY TO JUDGE NATION(S) AND CONTINENT(S).ULTIMATE VICTORY IS FOR AMERICA,NATO AND ITS ALLIED NATIONS.THE GOD JUDGES PEOPLE AND NATIONS FOR THEIR UNRIGHTEOUSNESS.THAT HAPPENS ON THE DAY OF ARMAGEDDON OR DOOMS DAY.
Judge
Mr. Venkat I feel sorry for you and many like you who think it is all that easy for YOUR AMERICA to come and kill and loot anything and everything with no repercussions. I for one am glad that somebody has the BALLS to stand up to hypocrites that they are. If you think that AMERICA is right I suggest that you pick up a stick and start walking towards Afghanistan to play your part. Im sure you will have pissed your pants multiple times even before you get to fire a single round.
Americas fire power is of no use anymore because they cant afford to fight anymore. Maybe you have been living on MARS because the last I heard, the west is BANKRUPT. NATO & UN are all scams for the general public to think that they have some insurance in case somebody attacks them. Mr.Venkat, I hope that people like you who live on fear and hate learn to live with people from all races PEACEFULLY. AND IF YOU CANT, BE MAN ENOUGH TO CHALLENGE YOUR OPPONENT FACE TO FACE RATHER THEN PLAY YOUR DIRTY GAMES LIKE DHAKA, KASHMIR AND MANY MORE, THE LIST GOES ON AND ON.
The part I agree with you Mr.venkat is the part where I also wish America, NATO and/or ALLIES start a full fledged war in middle east and south asia, specifically “Khurasan”. Then I would like to face men like you Mr.venkat and see who gets the victory. I am not one of those who USES somebody else shoulder to fire a gun. You dont know anything about Iran. If YOUR AMERICA stops doing business with you today, you wont know where to go Mr.venkat so please stop spreading hate. We know you have your interests with the West and that is why you would do anything for the White Skin. Human race is does not breath unless it has something to look forward to so please spare us your WISDOM
venkat s .kanakamedala
IRAN IS DIGGING ITS OWN GRAVE.IT WANT TO GO TO STONE IRAN.SAME CHINA AND PAK ARE WISHING.BETTER AMERICA AND NATO TO PROGRAM ME IT NUKE IN 5 STAGES OF STRIKING THESE COUNTRIES TO DESTROY.THAT IS THE ONLY ULTIMATE SOLUTION.NUKES SHOULD BE PROGRAMMED AGAINST RUSSIA ALSO DUE TO HOSTILE.ON THE DOOMS DAY ALL THESE EVIL NATIONS WILL BE DESTROYED BY AMERICA,NATO N ITS ALLIES.IT HAPPENS ONE DAY.BETTER AMERICA AND NATO SHOULD EQUIP WITH 500,000 MX NUKES WITH 15000 MILES RANGE TO JUDGE NATION(S) N CONTINENT(S).
jayraj
Iran should never make a mistake of attacking the US Navy. In fact, when two US aircraft carriers sail through Hormuz, the appetite to attack was tested. Iranian navy is hardly compatible with the might of US Navy. USS enterprise is in the phasing out phase. Though its been refurbished. The guess is, the seventh fleet led by USS enterprise would make the first strike, if it all the US navy decides to do so. Worst come worse the flagship may suffer severe damages salvaging the crew. And sacrificing the ship, the Pentagon will get a solid mandate for attacking Iran. USS Lincoln and USS Steins or modern nimitz class carriers with impeccable destruction abilities that Iran may not be geared to sustain.
In the desert fox operation, USS Missouri (may not be a carrier) was similarly used and then farewelled through the hands of the president then. Eventually it was used in a Hollywood film ‘under siege’ and then wrecked to a level of ready-to-junk. This is my imagination.