Iran’s supreme leader has built much of his legitimacy around demonizing the United States. So what could he really offer in talks with the U.S.?
If war with Iran is to be avoided, then negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group have to succeed. Turkey has already offered to host any talks, and Iran has said it’s ready to attend. It also seems likely that the P5+1 will also be willing to proceed. But with no date having yet been set despite tensions running so high, U.S. President Barack Obama should be willing to offer to go the extra mile and hold bilateral talks with Iran during any negotiations.
Yet doing so won’t be easy. Although the situation is delicate enough to make it well worth Obama’s while, Republican presidential candidates have been breathing down his neck demanding that he take a tougher line. And they aren’t alone – allies the U.K., France and Israel have also been pressing him, meaning Obama’s room for maneuver would likely be limited even if such talks take place.
Either way, negotiations are about give and take. So just what exactly would Obama be able to offer?
At the least, he would probably offer to lift some of the current sanctions against Iran. At the most, he could also offer a modified version of the October 2009 Geneva deal. But this time, instead of Iran shipping out 75 percent of its low-enriched uranium (LEU) in return for nuclear fuel (as was the case in Geneva), Iran could be asked to ship out 100 percent of its 20 percent enriched uranium. This could be in addition to at least 75 percent of the remaining stock of uranium enriched at levels below 20 percent. In return, all the shipped LEU would be turned into nuclear fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor, which would allow it to make medical isotopes. Such a high percentage of LEU being shipped out would ensure that the regime of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wouldn’t have sufficient LEU to make a bomb, if he were indeed inclined to try in the next year or so.
But what would Obama want from Iran in return?
At a bare minimum, the Obama administration would likely expect immediate answers from Iran to all outstanding International Atomic Energy Agency queries, which would probably entail immediate access to all sites of interest to the IAEA.
And what about Iran?
For Khamenei, it’s not going to be easy to offer much. On the one hand, he’s facing crushing economic and diplomatic pressure from Obama, the likes of which he hasn’t seen since becoming supreme leader. Should he ignore it, the Iranian economy, the health of which is crucial to the survival of the regime, could collapse.
On the other hand, the supreme leader is facing unprecedented problems at home. The regime is divided, with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad becoming a more divisive figure every day. One has to ask how much longer Mahmoud Bahmani, the current head of Central Bank, will put up with him before resigning.
More importantly, Khamenei's position and policies are being questioned and criticized both directly and indirectly – in full view of the Iranian public – by former officials who have ties with conservative factions.
Photo Credit: Sajed
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gerolamus sirtis
Iran gave the US a major casus belli in 79′ and since then has never stopped provoking the US, seen that the appropriate response to the original attack should have been to return Iran to a camelherders economy by massive retaliatory bombings. Iran’s theocracy is an illegal form of govrmnt. Totalitarian and ruthless. If we were to act in true principles, even following the UN laws, there should be NO negotiations with this child killers regime, only international trials in the Hague for Khamenei and cohorts for crimes against humanity.
Arash Irandoost
For the past 33 years various US administrations have attempted dialogue and diplomacy with the regime to no avail, why? because it is the mullahs that are not interested in dialogue and diplomacy and not the other way around. Was it not Clinton who waited 15 minutes in front of the UN Restroom for Khatami to come out after his dialogue of civilization propaganda, to thaw the ice between the 2 nations? What happened- well, khatami did not come out. Carter bent backward,gave mullahs a 25 year security guaranty-what happened? It cost him a reelection. Reagan tried, despite his tough rhetoric, what happened?-mullahs betrayed him and exposed the (Iran-Contra) affair. Obama offered his hand, what did he receive? a clinched fist- point being: Mullahs do not want to have dialogue and diplomacy with the US. Doing so will mean that they have to agree to halt building the bomb (yes, they are building the bomb-they were ordered so after Khomeini drank the poison chalice. Dialogue would also mean that-mullahs agree to stop supporting Hezbollah-are you kidding me? Mullahs owe their 2009 survival to Hezbollah. Mullahs have spent a 33 year propaganda brainwashing Iranians about the great Satan- agreeing to have a diplomatic and friendly relations with the great Satan-is akin to Khamenei drinking the poison Chalice. I have not talked about human rights and forcing mullahs to respect their citizens right to basic human right protections under the UN Human Rights Charter. Forget democracy! Who needs democracy-when you have Islam? (that is their mindset). Solution lies with the Iranian people- They need to show courage and make sacrifices (much like the Syrians) and get rid of this criminal regime once and for all.
Raymon
Iran’s position is delicate but not insurmountable. To give the slightly more moderate Obama his necessary assistance in his next elections, Iran needs to provide insurmountable proof that the Nuke is not their goal… whilst at the same time gaining private reassurances from the US that they will cool down their military positioning around Iran. It is this policy of the US that is the true threat to Iran – and one that consistently ignored or downplayed.
Think the at-the-time secret US-USSR agreement to prevent nukes in Cuba in return for no nukes in Turkey.
The US position and rhetoric is based entirely on their public’s fear of ‘Scary people with Nukes’. Take that away and the heat goes down. This in turn will dampen the Israeli confrontational attitude to them. Without US support, they really won’t be able to take on Iran on their own.
And to do this? Khamenei needs to get rid of Ahmadinejad and install an internationally perceived more neutral president who specifies internationally their objection of a Jewish Israel, but vigorously supports a religiously neutral Israel.
The fact that Israel is a still-undeclared nuclear power is a mockery of pretty much every international agreement going is entirely irrelevant to the fact that the US holds the key – and they will only give it if their public’s fears are neutralised.
eugene wr gallun
Being stuck between Obama and a hard place is like being stuck between a marshmellow and a hard place.
Amir
Sarkozy and Cameron are considered puppies by iran and their barks safely would be ignored. as far as US, iran should start some dialog but no backing on nuclear technology rights. if after all these hardships, Ahmadinejad or Khamenei give up the nation’s right that would be the last straw for them.
Ahsan Rizvi
First,America should distroy American nuclear & other weapens then he can say ocountry
shahriyar Gourgi,….shahin
Nothing personal, just geopolitics: a “tragedy” at the moment when US-Iran relations are at their lowest point in a long time.