A good example is a recent opinion piece by Adm. Hossein Alaei, the founding father of the Revolutionary Guards Navy and former IRGC Joint Force chief. In his article, he mentioned some of the Shah’s regrets after he lost power, such as not allowing people to demonstrate peacefully and shooting demonstrators. Hardliners saw this as an indirect criticism of Khamenei and a warning against him that he’s making some of the same mistakes.
Alaei’s opinion piece was condemned in the press (including the IRGC’s publication Sobh-e Sadegh), and demonstrations took place outside his home. But this op-ed was followed by further criticism of Khamenei’s position by Emad Afrugh, a former member of parliament who is believed to be close to the “principalist” faction. During a live interview he criticized the fact that the position of the supreme leader can’t be challenged by the public.
For decades Khamenei has portrayed the United States as Iran’s enemy. So how can a leader whose regime is apparently scared of Barbie dolls (having banned them over fears of a Western cultural invasion) reach any kind of deal with Obama that could end up helping him win the 2012 presidential election?
Iranian hard line revolutionaries take pride in arguing that Ayatollah Khomeini destroyed Jimmy Carter’s reelection chances with the U.S Embassy hostage crisis in 1979. Will Khamenei want to go down in history as the man who helped Obama stay in office? How could he justify this to his hardline supporters without creating even more infighting?
For years, Khamenei has stonewalled efforts by presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami(and to a lesser extent Ahmadinejad) to improve relations with the U.S., even by reportedly rejecting a recent U.S offer to set up a hotline in October 2011. Khamenei’s ideologically driven animosity and hostility toward any improvement in relations with the United States has been a major factor in his calculations. And the anti-U.S. card has also, until now, served him well as a way of securing legitimacy at home, a necessity given that Khamenei had weaker religious credentials than his predecessor.
All this means that Khamenei isn’t in a particularly enviable position. He’s stuck between Obama and a hard place – with very little room to maneuver in between.
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David
Surely the Iranian leaders would prefer Obama in power over his republican rivals?
Dennis Landry
The P5+1 has been an abject failure for the past six years. The ’sophistication’ of European diplomats ran head long into an Iranian regime that used them to buy time. The sanctions, currently hurting Iran are essentially a U.S. decision with Europe dragging their feet and Russia and China protecting Iran not out of a commitment to Iran but as a vehicle to make life difficult for the U.S.
The sanctions, applied 5 years ago, would have resulted in something; hind site but predicted by many at the time.
What we consistently fail to acknowledge is the power of the messanic belief system in place at the top of the Iranian regime. The secular west simply refused to understand that politics and economics in Iran take second and third place to the Theocracy in place.
Meaning……..the only message Iran will understand is clear positions and strength. The only message they will understand is a message followed by collective action including the ladies in Europe. It is complex for Europe as they have welcomed massive immigration from Islamic countries and that population is much more ‘Islamic’ than they are loyal to their current address.
Absent crushing sanctions, military action will be required. That military action will be presented as a fulfillment of the prophesy foreshadowing the return of the 12th Imam. His return requires chaos and the belief at the top is that it’s imminent. Reports have both the Supreme Leader and the President of Iran speaking with him directly.
Hallucinations don’t make for good negotiating partners!!
Nicodemus Minde
The relations between Iran and US will take years to be mended. The stances the US has taken to protect her ally, Israel and Iran’s blatant dislike for Israel have and will continue to jeopardize these relations. It will not take talks to resolves these issues but a complete overhaul of foreign policy decisions and goals to mend the relations between Iran and the US.