Iran’s supreme leader has built much of his legitimacy around demonizing the United States. So what could he really offer in talks with the U.S.?
If war with Iran is to be avoided, then negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group have to succeed. Turkey has already offered to host any talks, and Iran has said it’s ready to attend. It also seems likely that the P5+1 will also be willing to proceed. But with no date having yet been set despite tensions running so high, U.S. President Barack Obama should be willing to offer to go the extra mile and hold bilateral talks with Iran during any negotiations.
Yet doing so won’t be easy. Although the situation is delicate enough to make it well worth Obama’s while, Republican presidential candidates have been breathing down his neck demanding that he take a tougher line. And they aren’t alone – allies the U.K., France and Israel have also been pressing him, meaning Obama’s room for maneuver would likely be limited even if such talks take place.
Either way, negotiations are about give and take. So just what exactly would Obama be able to offer?
At the least, he would probably offer to lift some of the current sanctions against Iran. At the most, he could also offer a modified version of the October 2009 Geneva deal. But this time, instead of Iran shipping out 75 percent of its low-enriched uranium (LEU) in return for nuclear fuel (as was the case in Geneva), Iran could be asked to ship out 100 percent of its 20 percent enriched uranium. This could be in addition to at least 75 percent of the remaining stock of uranium enriched at levels below 20 percent. In return, all the shipped LEU would be turned into nuclear fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor, which would allow it to make medical isotopes. Such a high percentage of LEU being shipped out would ensure that the regime of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wouldn’t have sufficient LEU to make a bomb, if he were indeed inclined to try in the next year or so.
But what would Obama want from Iran in return?
At a bare minimum, the Obama administration would likely expect immediate answers from Iran to all outstanding International Atomic Energy Agency queries, which would probably entail immediate access to all sites of interest to the IAEA.
And what about Iran?
For Khamenei, it’s not going to be easy to offer much. On the one hand, he’s facing crushing economic and diplomatic pressure from Obama, the likes of which he hasn’t seen since becoming supreme leader. Should he ignore it, the Iranian economy, the health of which is crucial to the survival of the regime, could collapse.
On the other hand, the supreme leader is facing unprecedented problems at home. The regime is divided, with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad becoming a more divisive figure every day. One has to ask how much longer Mahmoud Bahmani, the current head of Central Bank, will put up with him before resigning.
More importantly, Khamenei's position and policies are being questioned and criticized both directly and indirectly – in full view of the Iranian public – by former officials who have ties with conservative factions.
Photo Credit: Sajed
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David
Surely the Iranian leaders would prefer Obama in power over his republican rivals?
Dennis Landry
The P5+1 has been an abject failure for the past six years. The ’sophistication’ of European diplomats ran head long into an Iranian regime that used them to buy time. The sanctions, currently hurting Iran are essentially a U.S. decision with Europe dragging their feet and Russia and China protecting Iran not out of a commitment to Iran but as a vehicle to make life difficult for the U.S.
The sanctions, applied 5 years ago, would have resulted in something; hind site but predicted by many at the time.
What we consistently fail to acknowledge is the power of the messanic belief system in place at the top of the Iranian regime. The secular west simply refused to understand that politics and economics in Iran take second and third place to the Theocracy in place.
Meaning……..the only message Iran will understand is clear positions and strength. The only message they will understand is a message followed by collective action including the ladies in Europe. It is complex for Europe as they have welcomed massive immigration from Islamic countries and that population is much more ‘Islamic’ than they are loyal to their current address.
Absent crushing sanctions, military action will be required. That military action will be presented as a fulfillment of the prophesy foreshadowing the return of the 12th Imam. His return requires chaos and the belief at the top is that it’s imminent. Reports have both the Supreme Leader and the President of Iran speaking with him directly.
Hallucinations don’t make for good negotiating partners!!
Nicodemus Minde
The relations between Iran and US will take years to be mended. The stances the US has taken to protect her ally, Israel and Iran’s blatant dislike for Israel have and will continue to jeopardize these relations. It will not take talks to resolves these issues but a complete overhaul of foreign policy decisions and goals to mend the relations between Iran and the US.