Ultimately, Putin must present a meaningful strategy for the Asia-Pacific region, while Japan must balance pursuit of the TPP with an Asian strategy. In addition to the energy issues that could draw the two states closer, both sides can point to compelling strategic reasons to seek a turnaround in bilateral relations.
But it will be far from easy – and some challenges may prove insurmountable. First, given Russia’s rising political instability, marked by demonstrations against election fraud and authoritarianism, Putin has to reassure people inside and outside Russia that he will have the legitimacy to be a reliable partner if reelected. Second, if Japan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry and right wing ideologues stand in the way even of exploratory talks, the challenge for Noda, in the midst of domestic political battles to raise the consumption tax from 5 percent to 10 percent and to reach consensus on joining the TPP, is to explain why talks with Russia matter.
On the Russian side, Putin must appreciate that Noda needs more than window-dressing on the way the two big disputed islands are handled, and on the protections for massive new investments by Japanese firms. The new strategy for the Russian Far East and Asia-Pacific region will be scrutinized more closely than any regional initiative since Gorbachev’s Vladivostok and Krasnoyarsk speeches to see if change is meaningful. The diplomatic maneuvering on both sides will be influenced by the way North Korea is handled in or out of the Six-Party Talks, which is where South Korea comes into the picture.
If the United States defers to Lee Myung-bak to decide if the talks are to be resumed, then Putin and Noda should coordinate more closely with Lee and each other on the Six-Party Talks. The other external challenge is how Obama’s “pivot” to Asia will respond to uncertainty in the world economy, including energy prices, and China’s political transition in 2012. If Putin reaffirms the “reset” with the United States, this will make it easier for a revival of U.S. policies in the 1990s that had welcomed improved Russo-Japanese relations.
As this year draws to a close, the odds against a breakthrough in Japanese-Russian relations are high. After years of “bashing,” the Japanese Foreign Ministry appears incapable of challenging critics of any compromise with Russia. Meanwhile, there’s no reason to think that Noda will focus on the emotional issue of Russia, which could undermine his other objectives.
Similarly, Putin appears determined to run against the West, underscored by his response to U.S. missile defense plans and his comments over U.S. “interference” in Russian election campaigns. In addition, and in his “lame duck” year, Lee Myung-bak isn’t well positioned to pursue multilateral diplomacy beneficial to Japanese-Russian relations, especially given the hardening of South Korean opinion against Japan over historical themes.
Will the challenges posed by North Korea break this impasse? Perhaps. But what seems more likely is that events on the Korean Peninsula will lead to deeper Sino-U.S. polarization that will draw Russia further into China’s shadow, and leave Japan no option but to draw closer to the United States.
Gilbert Rozman is Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton University. His recent books include: 'Chinese Strategic Thought toward Asia, U.S. Leadership,' 'History and Bilateral Relations in Northeast Asia,' and 'East Asian National Identities: Commonalities and Differences.'
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T.T.
Russia and Japan can have a very bright future if both countries stop living in prejudices and stereotypes and try to get closer. The territorial dispute is a huge obstacle. So, if it can’t be solved now, it should be postponed. The emotions are too high right now. There should be positive things between Russia and Japan and less negative propaganda. There’s so much to do, people, let’s build a bridge between Sakhalin and Hokkaido, develop tourism, student exchange, investments, joint scientific projects, explore space! We can cooperate on all levels and get all the benefits from the cooperation, not against some countries but for the benefit of all.
From Russia with love
Reader
This article is nonsense. Probably hashed up in 5 minutes for a tidy profit! It has not point to make but just a serve up of recent view points and opinions. Not only has it got many points wrong but prone t make cheapshots for what’s its worth; Such as “Vladimir Putin’s newly declared “Eurasian Community” have proven to have little substance in the face of increasingly one-sided Russian dependence on China’s divisiveness”. What “divisiveness” is the darn author talking about? What “one sided Russian dependence”? More like words and phrases just plucked out of thin air to complete his sentence for the sake of completing it!
Too many of the Diplomats’ articles these days are becoming nonsense if not hateful propaganda.
China’s Piglipsticking
Looks like Japan is now bailing out China. What gives?!
HHop
Japan is too smart to destroy any Chinese port. It will infuse the coastal areas with money and know-how. In the the near future, when the central leadership’s attempt to balance wealth to the inner regions frustrated them enough, the richer coastal areas will naturally break away and lean to Japan and the West for protection and continued prosperity. After all, only so many rich Chinese can be absorbed by the West. The rest will have to find ways to protect their wealth from the whim of the central CPP.
John Chan
China coastal area has suffered the most from the ocean bandits coming from Japan in the last 600 years. The records of China’s coastal area people fought and defeated sea bandits from Japan are littered in China’s history. China’s coastal area people will never forgive the war crimes committed by the Fascist Japanese in the last 600 years.
China coastal area people always know it is their duty to transfer wealth to the inner regions to make China a harmonious nation. They know only overall improvement in China will make them even more better off. This scared responsibility has been carrying on since 1949. Using Japan’s small nation mentality and selfish mindset to judge the behaviour China’s coastal area people is laughable.
T.T.
The topic of WWII comes up every time when Japan and China are mentioned. It’s not that you need to forget but you need to move on, look into the future, not only the past. Japan and China are great countries with a lot of things in common. I strongly believe that if Russia, Japan, China, US all start working WITH each other, not against each other, the world will be a better place.
Bierstadt
This article points out a pleasant but unlikely set of new developments in the region. Given that the US and China are not currently brimming with great new ideas for regional stability and cooperation, new initiatives by the other regional actors would be welcome. One country can only do so much, even with the best of intentions.
John Chan
Japan as a USA vassal state must obey USA’s strategy that is to cripple China and make China another USSR. Japan will do whatever it takes to accommodate Russia, so that it can devote all it resources to accomplish the tasks assigned to it by its master USA. One of the tasks for Japan is to bomb China’s ports. Once Japan has pacified Russia, it can devote all its force to bomb China’s ports without worrying Russia to attack and occupy Hokkaido. It is a difficult task for Noda, but it is also a test that Noda must pass, otherwise he will follow Yukio Hatoyama and get dumped real fast.