Events on the Korean Peninsula offer a window of opportunity for Russia and Japan to rethink ties. But can they emerge from the Sino-U.S. shadow?
The shadow of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s death hangs over Northeast Asia as leaders work to reassure each other of cooperation to ensure stability in the uncertain transition ahead. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak spoke by telephone with Japan’s Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko, whom just a day or two earlier he had been berating for failure to act on the “comfort women” issue. Lee also spoke with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, whose failure to criticize the North’s 2010 sinking of the Cheonan had left a bad aftertaste in South Korea. But these efforts at developing a coherent strategy were taking place against the backdrop of a China and United States that are still developing their own responses – responses that could lead to further polarization in the region.
And it’s this last reality that could cause increasing frustration among other states that also consider themselves great powers – Japan and Russia. Polarization has advanced relentlessly since the end of the Cold War, and in place of Japan’s cherished dream of “returning to Asia” as its leader, Tokyo now looks in the 2010s to have little choice but to become more deeply enmeshed in the U.S. alliance system. Russia’s dashed expectations are even more strongly felt; Boris Yeltsin’s Atlanticism and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s newly declared “Eurasian Community” have proven to have little substance in the face of increasingly one-sided Russian dependence on China’s divisiveness.
Back in 2002, at the start of the second North Korean nuclear crisis, Japan and Russia strove for an independent approach to the North, as seen in Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s September visit to Pyongyang and Putin’s third meeting in three years with Kim Jong-il, followed by efforts to broker a deal in January 2003 to resolve the crisis. Yet both were marginalized. Today, Russia’s preoccupation with building a pipeline through the peninsula, and Japan’s obsession with uncovering the truth about abductions of its citizens, reveal how each state feigns relevance while sticking closely to China or the United States. In the next stage of maneuvering over North Korea, neither Moscow nor Tokyo can expect to have a strong hand unless Pyongyang abruptly abandons confrontation.
But things are set to become even more polarized in 2012. Noda has made joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) his foreign policy priority, even if critics regard this as tantamount to Japan entering the U.S. economic orbit with long-dreaded implications for Japan’s national identity. If some resistors warn of an imbalance as prospects for an East Asian community, championed in late 2009 by the Democratic Party of Japan when it took power, are sacrificed, others fear that a deepening divide between maritime and continental Asia will not only result in a new Cold War, but will undermine Japan’s unique civilization, the crux of its national identity.
The situation is also perilous for defenders of an autonomous foreign policy and national identity in Russia. Reasserting leadership even before his anticipated election as president, Putin promises not only to be able to produce a “Eurasian Community,” but also to set forth an “Asia-Pacific” regional strategy in time for the Vladivostok APEC meeting in September 2012. Kazakhstan’s decision to join this vaguely defined community offers little solace as China’s influence keeps growing in Central Asia as it uses the cover of the Shanghai Cooperative Organization to expand its economic clout. Moreover, despite Medvedev’s August meeting with Kim Jong-il, Russia’s position on North Korea and the Six-Party Talks mainly echoes China’s. There’s growing concern in Russia that it has a China policy, but not a regional policy.
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T.T.
Russia and Japan can have a very bright future if both countries stop living in prejudices and stereotypes and try to get closer. The territorial dispute is a huge obstacle. So, if it can’t be solved now, it should be postponed. The emotions are too high right now. There should be positive things between Russia and Japan and less negative propaganda. There’s so much to do, people, let’s build a bridge between Sakhalin and Hokkaido, develop tourism, student exchange, investments, joint scientific projects, explore space! We can cooperate on all levels and get all the benefits from the cooperation, not against some countries but for the benefit of all.
From Russia with love
Reader
This article is nonsense. Probably hashed up in 5 minutes for a tidy profit! It has not point to make but just a serve up of recent view points and opinions. Not only has it got many points wrong but prone t make cheapshots for what’s its worth; Such as “Vladimir Putin’s newly declared “Eurasian Community” have proven to have little substance in the face of increasingly one-sided Russian dependence on China’s divisiveness”. What “divisiveness” is the darn author talking about? What “one sided Russian dependence”? More like words and phrases just plucked out of thin air to complete his sentence for the sake of completing it!
Too many of the Diplomats’ articles these days are becoming nonsense if not hateful propaganda.
China’s Piglipsticking
Looks like Japan is now bailing out China. What gives?!
HHop
Japan is too smart to destroy any Chinese port. It will infuse the coastal areas with money and know-how. In the the near future, when the central leadership’s attempt to balance wealth to the inner regions frustrated them enough, the richer coastal areas will naturally break away and lean to Japan and the West for protection and continued prosperity. After all, only so many rich Chinese can be absorbed by the West. The rest will have to find ways to protect their wealth from the whim of the central CPP.
John Chan
China coastal area has suffered the most from the ocean bandits coming from Japan in the last 600 years. The records of China’s coastal area people fought and defeated sea bandits from Japan are littered in China’s history. China’s coastal area people will never forgive the war crimes committed by the Fascist Japanese in the last 600 years.
China coastal area people always know it is their duty to transfer wealth to the inner regions to make China a harmonious nation. They know only overall improvement in China will make them even more better off. This scared responsibility has been carrying on since 1949. Using Japan’s small nation mentality and selfish mindset to judge the behaviour China’s coastal area people is laughable.
T.T.
The topic of WWII comes up every time when Japan and China are mentioned. It’s not that you need to forget but you need to move on, look into the future, not only the past. Japan and China are great countries with a lot of things in common. I strongly believe that if Russia, Japan, China, US all start working WITH each other, not against each other, the world will be a better place.
Bierstadt
This article points out a pleasant but unlikely set of new developments in the region. Given that the US and China are not currently brimming with great new ideas for regional stability and cooperation, new initiatives by the other regional actors would be welcome. One country can only do so much, even with the best of intentions.
John Chan
Japan as a USA vassal state must obey USA’s strategy that is to cripple China and make China another USSR. Japan will do whatever it takes to accommodate Russia, so that it can devote all it resources to accomplish the tasks assigned to it by its master USA. One of the tasks for Japan is to bomb China’s ports. Once Japan has pacified Russia, it can devote all its force to bomb China’s ports without worrying Russia to attack and occupy Hokkaido. It is a difficult task for Noda, but it is also a test that Noda must pass, otherwise he will follow Yukio Hatoyama and get dumped real fast.