Does China feel it has to react to the visit?
Thus far, Chinese official response has been rather muted, as it should be.
If relations between the United States and Burma expand and Burma continues to reform, China may face some new political and economic challenges in its relations with Burma. In most respects, however, these challenges will arise as a result of the steps Burma takes at home rather than anything that the United States does. Nonetheless, there’s no advantage to be gained for Burma by alienating China. The worst thing that China can do at this point would be to respond with the type of rhetoric that some commentators are evincing.
Global Times commentator Ding Gang, for example, wrote, “No ASEAN country can develop without China's growth. We should be careful in case the US hurts China's interests by underhand moves and prepare for it. When necessary, we should make the US taste bitterness. China has the ability.”
This is precisely the type of thinking and rhetoric that has caused so many Asian countries to turn away from China despite the country's important economic role in the region. Once again, China may prove to be its own worst enemy.
Looking more generally at U.S. policy in Asia, what adjustments will China make in its foreign policy to the U.S. pivot? Do you see China maybe lessening any of its demands in the South China Sea or on Taiwan?
How China will respond is anyone’s best guess.
I’ve been surprised at the inability or unwillingness of Chinese officials over the past few months to temper their assertive rhetoric or demonstrate a genuine willingness to recalibrate their policy in the Pacific.
From my perspective, it seems clear that Chinese foreign policy has gone seriously off the rails. When most of your neighbors and important economic partners repeatedly raise concerns over your assertive – even bullying – behavior, it’s time to take a step back and review what you are doing. (This is a lesson that the United States, unfortunately, has had to relearn on many occasions.)
Among Chinese scholars there’s a vibrant debate over whether China has made some serious foreign policy missteps over the past year, but it’s unclear who is listening and learning in the Foreign Ministry and within the PLA and, particularly the PLA Navy.
Thus far, we haven’t seen any real change emanating from China’s foreign policy; the easiest and most obvious step would be for China to move forward on talks on resolving the South China Sea dispute and jointly developing the resources of the East China Sea with Japan. Of course, it will also have to rein in its navy and fishing vessels that have been the source of so much concern throughout the region. That, in my opinion, would be the smart thing to do.
Whether China can actually reverse course and moderate its behavior remains to be seen. It wouldn’t make much sense for China to become more aggressive: it would have no support from any significant actor in the region and would only provoke a much more militarized regional response in return.
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Huang
Its a changing and evolving World. The forces of change in recent history will be remembered as the ” New Starts of the 21st Century”. These changes will neccessary be entirely bad nor all together good; yet they are and will be responsible for shaping the entire goe-political and economic structure and environment from now on.
The 2008 global economic down turn followed by the turmoils in the Arab World . The South China Sea disputes is an on/off switch. ASEAN and China ties have been proven solid and strenghtening in the midst of US gestures/postures,maritime territorial disputes,and recent moves made by the Burmese government.
Recent developnments and changes should be viewed by China and ASEAN as un-avoidable since the forces influencing these changes were neither checked nor prevented before they materialized.
Vietnam,the Phillipines,and lately Burma all have their own respective agendas behind the current situation. Steps these governments make will decide the the realities in the coming years and the costs/benifits be reveiled.
China’s consistent policies and attitudes in the face of these changes will play the pivotal role in maintaining the cohesion of China-ASEAN shared developnmental aspirations.
The US’s recent efforts regardless of how they are described or intended,will not significantly change the already strong ties and deeply rooted understandings among ASEAN members and China. In other word,difficulties(disputes)will be solved and renew efforts will be forged purely base on practical considerations and shared understandings on exactly what is good for ASEAN and China i.e. ASIA.
Apparently, anticipations,anxieties,false-sense-of-hopes,and even strange-wishes are floating around stemming from the European debt crisis to the rapid falls of several Arab governments and the un-certainties of the future health of the global economic environment in the next few years.
AS Sun Tzu understood,”opportunities multiply as they are seized.” This is the time where opportunities and new or creative ideas are most needed/useful in tackling problems and arrive at a higher stage of developnemnts. Optimisms can be a good friend during hard times;while understanding the importance of realistic attitudes help avoid making errors influenced by emotions and tempers associated with the bad times.
Finally, good times and bad times are a way of life; remembering this realistic fact is a first step at overcoming difficulties/hardships. Everyone has his or her own want-to-do list or wish-to-be-able-to-do fantasy. Sun Tzu was no exception when he proclaimed,”Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can?”
Forget the side-shows; The main tasks are too important to be neglected.
Chris
I’m sure there are many well meaning people in the Chinese Foreign Ministry who see this as a win-win situation. However, for the PLAN-tasked with ensuring energy SLOCs-this is probably a very troubling event. Here’s the plain truth-in order to even have a chance of keeping Chinese energy SLOC’s open and secure-the PLA must eventually have either control of or make neutral the entire landmass from Vietnam to Singapore up through Burma. The Indonesian island of Java is in the group as well. This turn of events sends Burma out of Beijing’s orbit-it will probably only bring trouble and violence to Burma in the end.