The US and Afghan governments need to rethink the current peace process. Striking a deal with the Taliban is no magic bullet.
The assassination late last month of former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of the Afghanistan High Peace Council, was another in a long series of blows to an already fragile reconciliation process in the country. And, although US President Barack Obama affirmed shortly after that the assassination wouldn’t deter the United States and NATO from pursuing their current path, the incident has significantly undermined the prospects for peace in Afghanistan.
The fallout from Rabbani’s killing continued last week as Afghan officials announced their plans to cancel trilateral talks with Pakistan and the United States. Senior officials from the three countries had been expected to meet in Kabul on October 8 to discuss the fragile Afghan reconciliation process that many hope will bring an end to the decade-old conflict.
Viewed in the context of the past six months – a period marked by political assassinations and other deadly targeted attacks – the latest tragedy also calls into question the very fundamentals of the current reconciliation and reintegration process. Instead of moving on without further reflection, a serious reappraisal of the process is needed.
After 10 years of fighting, the idea of finding a political solution to the war in Afghanistan has become a top priority on the international agenda. With extremist factions steadily undermining moderates, as demonstrated by the escalating violence and spectacular nature of recent attacks, the current process is being heavily undermined. This casts doubts on the effectiveness of the US-initiated talks with a marginalized faction of the Taliban. Further, it begs the question of whether a lasting solution involving just moderates isn’t overly optimistic.
When evaluating the peace process, the inherent domestic challenges of reconciling the Taliban must also be considered. Rabbani’s death is set to exacerbate the already stark opposition to negotiations that exists in many parts of Afghan society. Rabbani was tasked with not only reconciling and negotiating a peace settlement with the Pashtun-dominated insurgency, but also bringing the so-called ‘anti-Taliban constituency’ to the table. This opposition group is comprised of non-Pashtuns – Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras – who fought against the Taliban under the umbrella of the Northern Alliance in the 1990s.
Led by influential warlords and former mujahideen commanders, this opposition group remains opposed to any peace talks with the Taliban, and believes they have the most to lose from a negotiated settlement. The killing of Rabbani has significantly bolstered this opposition group along with other critics of the peace talks. Opposition leader Abdullah Abdullah and former intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh announced that all reconciliation efforts were dead. Although President Hamid Karzai has struggled to keep them on board, most of the leaders of these groups have gradually drifted away. Indeed, Rabbani was the only influential Northern Alliance leader loyal to Karzai and his circle.
Photo Credit: ISAF Media
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venkat
Taliban?? Are you out of your mind? Do you want the Afghans to suffer more my putting a part of them under Taliban?
There cannot be a partition. Arm the NA and let them handle those stone age marauders.
Harry
Well your country has been pumping billions into NA accounts but will not achieve it’s desired goals in Afghanistan. You know Pashtoon? Ask any wise man or read history of India……….Baber, Mehmood Ghazanvi,and many more, who came down from Afghanistan and terrorized Indians for centuries.
yang zi
US is desperate to leave Afghanistan. there is no big tent in a country like Afghanistan, it is black and white, night and day, no gray.
Afghanistan is going down if US disengage. China should stop its projects in Afghanistan now.
yang zi
the other way is to partition Afghanistan, northern alliance and Taliban controls different part of the country.
MostJustWantPeace
So if a partition happens, where are the Chinese projects going to fall – in Taliban land or Northern Alliance Territory?
yang zi
I have no idea where China’s project is, in any event, China should plan to withdraw. Northern alliance and Taliban are different ethnics. there will be turmoils after US withdraw, especially if Taliban is made legit.