By The Diplomat
The US has accused Iran of planning to detonate an explosive device to kill the Saudi Arabian ambassador. The Diplomat asks Iran analyst Michael Rubin for his take.
The US Justice Department today accused Iran of backing a plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States using explosives. Are you surprised about these claims, specifically that Iranian secret agents might try to detonate a bomb on US soil?
This isn’t the first time that the Islamic Republic has conducted terrorism on US soil. In 1980, an Iranian gunman assassinated Ali Akbar Tabatabai, a former Iranian diplomat , in Bethesda, Maryland, where he lived in exile. Nor is the fact that Iranian officials targeted Americans a surprise: The evidence is persuasive that Iranian officials are complicit in the murder of Americans in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in the Middle East.
Still, it’s difficult not to be surprised that Iran’s Qods Force would be so bold as to strike at the heart of ‘The Great Satan.’ For years, a theme of Iranian rhetoric has been that the United States is a paper tiger. Alas, it seems they actually believe it. To signal to the Iranian leadership that there are certain red lines they may not cross is therefore more important now than it ever has been before.
Presumably, a decision like this would extend to the very top of the Iranian leadership?
Iran is a dictatorship, but not in the style of Kim Jong-il’s North Korea or Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. The Supreme Leader is the ultimate authority, and his word is gold, but he doesn’t simply give his minions orders and expect them to be carried out. Rather, according to experts’ estimates, he presides over an office that includes several hundred, or perhaps a couple of thousand, commissars who are inserted at every level of every bureaucracy, and they stove pipe information back to him. Whenever he disapproves of a debate or a proposed action, he will shut it down. Whatever rises to the surface, however, he implicitly endorses. Because he rules by veto power, however, Western intelligence agencies will never find a smoking gun. This will, in turn, lead to a policy debate about whether the perpetrators of the plot were simply rogue actors.
How do you expect the US to respond?
The United States will certainly debate the issue about whether the plot can be blamed on the Iranian government as a whole, or whether it can simply be dismissed as the desperate act of rogue elements among Iran’s competing power centres. A few years ago, I tried to address the issue of how to determine rogue behavior in Iran in an article, and have since lectured on the subject for the US military and intelligence communities. Long story short, what diplomats often dismiss as rogue operations are celebrated by the Iranian government, with the perpetrators and hit men even getting promotions. When there are true rogue operations in the Iran, the perpetrators, however, often face the firing squad, no matter how politically connected they are.
I would certainly expect the US government to respond with a whole host of greater sanctions, perhaps even sanctioning Iran’s central bank. If the White House or the State Department resists such a move, I’d expect Congress to demand more robust actions. There’s a possibility that there could be a small military confrontation. The United States always has one or two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Persian Gulf. During the Reagan administration, the United States used our navy to target Iranian oil platforms. This time, the Pentagon could choose other targets, including elements of Iran’s nuclear programme.
So, will these claims have any bearing on discussions over Iran's nuclear programme?
Too often in the international community, questions about Iran’s nuclear programme are theoretical. Diplomats discuss the programme as if it was simply a national programme when, in reality, command and control would be far more precise. If the Qods Force is willing to act so ideologically and provocatively as to target Washington DC, then it would be fair for policymakers to ask who would have custody, command, and control over any theoretical Iranian nuclear bomb.
If the answer to that was the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or the Qods Force, then I would expect those who over the past few years have advocated diplomacy to resolve the nuclear question to begin to consider a more robust menu of options.
Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is the co-author of 'Eternal Iran' (Palgrave, 2005) and 'Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran' (2001).
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Asking Michael Rubin, an American Enterprise Institute “enterprise” questions about this seemingly stupidly cheap folly is just like asking Paul Wolfowitz about the nuclear weapons that Saddam had: They will simply lie to you. I am not sure this piece even deserves attention, let alone a place in the journal. If not anything else, these allegations will make the US look miserable and on the verge of craziness. I believe it is time to declare the US the sick man of the world. It became a liability for the rest of the world, as well as its own people.
anfal
We are thinking the way Media wants us to and reacting accordingly. What is the real game, who opens the gates of hostility, who pampers and pushes so called tyrants in the world to pursue their short and long term objectives. Nuclear Tehran or Pakistan is a real threat to Global peace and human race or India and Israel. How one is justified while others are not and by the way who is the judge and why. Rhetorical lies are the basis of propaganda warfare. After all some one needs to build a case. No American is threatened but by their regimes own follies in international relationship. How long they can continue to abuse their power to dictate terms. Better respect and be respected by all.
Sassan
There is no doubt to the accuracy of this case. Remember, there are
multiple nations involved in uncovering this plot including Mexico.
There was money transfer involved in the amount of over $100k and more
was on the way. The conversations have been recorded along with
communications documented which show the money transfer directly out of
Iran. This guy was just in year as of recently and most likely he
himself is not a radical but he was simply money hungry and had no
ethics.. supposedly he has already confessed on his own will and
volition and admitted of high levels of Iranian government contact and
coordination.. the evidence will come out at trial but there is no doubt
in my mind that this is a slam-dunk case and that the Islamic Republic
was involved; the question is, how far up the food chain does it go?
Remember, this regime murdered dissidents overseas all throughout Europe
until the 90’s. Just last year, a plot of assassination was unraveled
in which they were targeting political scientist/commentator/writer
Nourizadeh in Los Angeles/London – this is just the beginning. This regime envisions global jihad through death, havoc, and destruction as accorded by the
Hadith and their “hidden imam” ideology. This regime must under no
circumstances be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. The funny thing is
to watch sadly so-called “experts” trying to find “logic and
rationality” behind the actions of the regime. By definition, these
religious maniacs don’t have any reason or common sense rationality. We
cannot judge them based on our level of rationality and humanity.
Ironically, it was former CIA/Revolutionary Guards spy Reza Kahlili who
months ago wrote and started to speak on the fact that this regime would
start to export their terror by potentially hiring Mexican drug cartels
as well as South American connections; in addition, he noted the threat
of assassinations of diplomats and other high ranking officials of the
Saudi government by the Islamic Republic as fatwas has been issued and
threats have been targeted against members of the Saudi Royal family;
people think this is so “unexpected” but I find it a masterful plot
which if it had been successful would have allowed the regime to deny
complicity.
habu
To be sure, I am not giving a pass to Iran. I have no knowledge but don’t doubt that Iran has covertly acted on its intelligence. But this allegation by the US Administration against Iran shows how low the US has fallen. Reminds me of Colin “The Jester” Powell gesticulating with his charts at the UNSC in 2003. Surely, no thinking person can take such allegations seriously. We know that our jive-talkin’ Obama desperately needs a diversion. Worse, the economy has unemployment levels of 24 percent. Also, Attorney General Holder has his own problems.
Despite taking the fall for the Iraq venture, American intelligence is good. It is just that the politicians wanted to carry out their own agenda, whatever the intelligence. The Bush Administration fit the ‘facts’ to the outcome it wanted. Now we can see why the DOJ has been prosecuting whistle blowers because it does not want the real intelligence to be leaked. Here are some reasons why this exercise shows what a banana republic the USA has become.
If Iran wanted to knock off the Saudi ambassador, it could do so with ease in any other part of the world, like the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, etc. Why would Iran, knowing full well what death and destruction the USA has wrought in Iraq, want to antagonize “The Great Satan”? Besides, why choose to knock off some flunky ambassador when a higher-level crown prince would be much better.
Furthermore, why would the Mexican drug cartel, which is doing quite nicely earning billions of dollars in the drug trade, want to alienate the USA and risk losing a very profitable enterprise? Knowing that these cartels are under close scrutiny, especially with their financial transactions, why would Iran risk using such a scrutinized channel? Furthermore, why use someone in Mexico for a job in Washington?
Lastly, the notion that an Iranian general (in the army) spoke to person in the USA and wired the funds so openly sounds laughable. That would directly finger the Iranian Army and the government. Do Americans think the Iranians are so rash? Seems like the Iranians are playing chess [they invented it] while the Americans are playing checkers.
If the US wants war, Iran is no push over. The US will rue that decision because Western economies, but especially the US, will spiral into something infinitely worse than this depression. For one thing, the USA could hardly subjugate hapless Iraq [population 27 million] suffering through two decades of war and a decade of sanctions. The US can’t do squat; indeed it is a “paper tiger.” The real blow that Iran will deal to the USA will be to send the price of oil skyward which will result in a complete collapse of the American economy. Americans ain’t seen nuthin yet!
Jack
This is just another propaganda to strengthen the US to take military action at Iran. Just look at the case for Iraq. The US lied that there was weapons of mass destruction and Saddam Hussein and his cohorts were linked to Al Queda for it to begin military action. I dont believe any of the above information. Which country in the world would be silly enough to attempt to kill the Saudi Arabian Ambassador on US soil. Iran for instance,is curretly undergoing a set of sanctions, I believe would not want to initiatie this kind of actions because it will only be detrimental to their well being. This is just my opinion.
Matt Y.
This could be a reponse to the targeted killings, in Tehran, of their nuke experts. Don’t know why this isn’t mentioned. But I also don’t know why we think it’s necesary to cuddle tyrants. Exactly why do we allow such countries to bully the US, killing soldiers and arming terrorists, a decade after our President at the time stated clearly we will go after state sponsors of terrorism. When such overt, long-term support of terrorists goes on without a decisive response the only thing that happens is more Americans get killed. How do we win by ignoring attacks, ignoring nuke buildups as we have for the last decade in Pakistan, Iran and North Korea. What is our Air Force and Navy around for if not to swiftly eliminate such threats?