At a time of uncertainty, the Asia-Pacific should stick with the security guarantees that have brought it relative peace and prosperity. It’s too soon to count the US out.
Is the United States a stabilizing or destabilizing factor in the Asia-Pacific? On hearing this question, most Americans would, of course, say the US is the former. But I suspect most Chinese (and quite a few others) would disagree.
Recent US behaviour at home and abroad tends to reinforce questions over whether the United States is really a factor for stability. One recent example: the Obama administration, after saying the US put its efforts against terrorism into the wrong war (Iraq) instead of the right war (Afghanistan), announced a ‘surge’ of troops in Afghanistan, only simultaneously to announce its intention to withdraw. Afghanistan’s neighbours heard the second part, and ignored the first. The United States’ reliance on Pakistan increased, but its relations with Islamabad rapidly deteriorated.
The Obama administration has announced the United States’ ‘return to Asia,’ and many old friends in the region welcomed renewed attention from Washington. But many Chinese suspect the United States’ return really means engaging in a form of containment of China. Some even say that since the Taiwan Strait has become calmer with the ascension of President Ma Ying-jeou, the United States is turning to the South China Sea as a new pressure point to keep China in check.
At home, the US legislative process appears broken. The latest debate over the US debt ceiling seemed to accomplish nothing, while diverting legislators’ attention from doing the important things that need to be done. This has contributed to post-Great Recession calculations that the United States is declining as China is rising. To top it all, the United States is now entering a new election season, meaning what has seemed chaotic up to now will soon appear orderly in comparison to what’s coming.
The United States’ great contributions to post-World War II international order are believed by many to be coming to their end, as Washington increasingly finds itself unable to finance anything except replacement body parts for the elderly and interest payments to our creditors.
But I think that conventional wisdom can be turned on its head – the United States’ greatest accomplishments may be behind it, but there’s still plenty more to come.
The United States, like China’s new aircraft carrier, turns slowly, and isn’t small enough for sudden course corrections. Lacking a parliamentary system, by the choice of our forefathers, we don’t have sweeping changes brought about by a single election. Change comes incrementally with each two-year election cycle.
In 2008, the public rejected the incumbent president’s party and voted for ‘change you can believe in.’ The public then perceived that the promised change didn’t occur, and voted in the largest number of opposition Congressmen ever to change seats in 2010. We are now getting ready for the presidential election in 2012.
Judgments made about the United States’ future made today will have little value if they don’t also try to calculate the outcomes in the coming two elections. Judgments made today about the United States’ future are inherently premature, not because we don’t know what the future will hold—and we don’t—but because we know the next two election cycles will likely bring more change, not more continuity.
Photo Credit: White House
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SGMS
What a rosy picture of Asian progress and American
partnership. Please. The US squandered a vast amount
of political capital from 2000-2008. It’s not that the US
is less “needed” it is that it is both less needed and less
wanted by nations that are growing at very fast rates.
And don’t bet on a US-China G2. There’s a chesire war
happening with both countries undermining access
to stretegic and energy-related areas. Sorry to burst
the collective bubble but Libya was all a cover for
booting out Chinese oil firms. You really think a war
coordinated b/w the US and NATO can be planned
in 10 days? Please! Losing Libyan oil meant possible
financial collapse in Italy and huge spikes in French
petrol cost.
The US will continue to show up with heavy artillery
where major economic interests are at stake.
China is doing the same but with 1000 thread count
soft power like soy plantations in Brazil.
China will become green and pull its villagers
out of poverty in the next 20yrs.
The US wil spend years stuck in the desert of
Afghanistan, feeding money into Pakistan like
a slot machine.
Boris
I think CCP guys are more realistic on this issue, US influence will remain in Asian-pacific region, not less, but not more, the region will remain in a balance among powers, so it’s in stabilised state, no one now is capable to break the balance and dominate the region.
Observer
@ huang said “China’s active engagements with neighbors and friends based on mutual respects and mutual trusts,NOT threats and intimidations to gain the illusion of respects”.
Mutual respects and trusts? Like how invaders from china attacked and took over Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia? Like how barbarians from china tried and tried for countless times to swallow little Vietnam for the last few thousands years and still fail and fail?
Learn some history lessons before you spew out propaganda from your CCP master, my little cluessless chinese 5RMB poster.
Sinodefender
Instead of spouting nonsense on how Xinjiang,Tibet and Inner Mongolia you should learn history… Xinjiang was first inhabited by Yuezhi/Tocharians,they were expelled my Xiongnu,Xiongnu chose to raid Han dynasty resulting in their demise and the region then belonged to Han,after centuries of turmoil alternating control between nomad and Chinese,Uighurs came during the 9th century… Tocharians are not Uighurs and Chinese established control their again during the Qing dynasty. Tibet was once an empire and Nanzhao kingdom was forced to be under Tibetean rule,the people of Nanzhao wished to get rid of their overlords thus they made an alliance with Tang resulting in Central Asian lands under the control of Tang for a brief period. How is it Chinese problem that Tibet was under Yuan rule… Qing sent troops to quell rebellions,the Tibetans brought it upon themselves for killing ambassadors and Chinese citizens in Lhasa,When Nepalese Gurhkas invaded Southern Tibet,Qing ambassadors ensured Panchen lama’s safety and successfully drove the invaders out. Due to destabilization of Qing became independent under Dalia lama feudalism and invaded China several times only to fail in all attempts… CCP was right to get rid of the practices of serfdom and slavery in Tibet. If you want to blame someone,blame the Mongols and Manchus for conquering China and incorporating Tibet. Loufan, Linhu, and Dí were the earliest inhabitant of Inner Mongolia,due to constant raids and ambition,King Wuling of Zhao swept thought the area constructing a commandery and walls. Xiongnu eventually took over this region,only to be defeated by Qin and Han dynasties.Constant struggles resulted in Inner Mongolia be controlled by Xianbei,Xiongnu and Tang,after that Khitans established control of the area.Jurchens defeated Khitans,Mongols defeated Jurchens and Chinese defeated Mongols… Qing dynasty was the one to mass settle Manchuria and Mongolia in fear on Mongols. So control alternated between nomads and Chinese. Seems like you already forgotten about 2,000 years of Chinese dominion. The earliest Vietnam was under Chinese jurisdiction if you count An Duong Vuong from Shu as Chinese in origin is 257 BCE. Depending on Vietnamese or Chinese history Qin did or did not conquer the region during its waning years,and Zhao tuo established control either by defeating An Dương Vương or by inheriting the area from Qin and during the Qin-Han period established the state of Nanyue. Until Ngô Quyền defeated Southern Han and established Vietnamese control. I don’t see why you are complaining that Chinese sent forces to Vietnam,as Vietnam conquered Champa… So what if Chinese failed,China was still the cultural overlord of Vietnam and Vietnam emulated China not the other way around…
Huang
The issue of Tibet,Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia clearly is NOT a topic you are in any position to discuss about since you are all blank beyond the names of those Chinese teeritories. You are not the only one bringing this ethnically and religiuosly sensitive issues in your opposing argument. As a matter of fact,I have seen many(usually posts written by our Indian friends when it comes to the China topic)posts from people who know a thing or two about their respective village they grew up from and anything beyond will be all blank-yet they would often posted Tibet,Xinjiang,Taiwan and Inner-Mongolia.
On the issue of Viet Nam,the information you picked-up was in-accurate. China did rule Viet Nam as Mongolia once ruled China. Viet Nam is an independant country today and is rataining all of its Chinese cultural characteristics. In a way,China no longer rule Viet Nam, yet Chinese culture live on in the hearts and minds of every person in Viet Nam.
Just because some Chinese blogers say something positive about China,they must be associated with the CCP,for this I would say you are just another same little propaganda(this time,its Western propagandas)absorbing samll person.
Remember,keep cool,don’t get over emotional everytime its about China because its not only un-healthy,its unwise too.
P.S. No one participated here are paid employees of any organization,so don’t put any more of that 5enter,1dong,10rupies,and so on..Its pathetic.
Sinodefender
Who are you to say I can’t discuss China’s lands? Your point that Vietnam is independent,I was just replying to Observer and how maybe some Chinese dynasties thought Vietnam was part of China,Mongols did not rule China for 1,000 years… What I find hilarious is that now some Vietnamese nationalists claim Confucius learned from Viets,Chinese culture is derived from China,Southern China is Vietnamese land etc. Who doesn’t convey their emotions in their writing,I merely copy the tone of the one I’m debating with. Tell a_canadian_observer that pro-China bloggers are not CCP moles please…
Huang
@sinodefender,
I wrote that in response to observer. Not you.
I apologize for the mis-understanding.
I am sincerely sorry for not being specific by omiting the @observer.
Sinodefender
You are clearly the bigger man for apologizing first,I have mistaken your intentions and I offer my sincere apology replying to you in an arrogant attitude.
PapushiSun
Perhaps the US should get it’s own house in order first before trying to save the world.
Stevelaudig
The West’s [NATO Europe and the U.S.] model for the rest of the world is Africa. It is what China would look like if the West’s candidate had won the civil war that ended in 1949. It was what South America, South Africa, and Southeast Asia [Indonesia/Vietnam/Philippines] looked like under the U.S. installed/supported military dictators [Philippines still do]. Since 1980 the U.S. has invaded Grenada; Panama; Iraq twice; Afghanistan; and Libya. The U.S. economic model requires instability elsewhere for its unique form of capitalism incubated with slavery for Africans; genocide for Native Americans; and continental land theft [ask the Native Americans and the Mexicans]. It is shackled to its current iteration in Zionist Israel which is using a similar model [as did Apartheid South Africa] quasi-slavery; dispossession; and racism. that just about sums it up. It’s lip-service to human rights is just that–words.
Peter
@ Stevelaudig Your comments are far too absurd to be taken seriously.
Anon
@Peter Agreed, the other poster clearly cannot be taken seriously.
Frank
You do not have to take other people’s comments seriously.
There is no right for you to advice others to do so.
kabir awadhi
d international community hates india s stability n economic growth , n they r indulging in de-stablising india by buying our corrupt media n opp political leaders n selling fake propoganda of corruption behind a honest/illeterate man . just 2 months back 130 year old CONGRESS WAS NOT CORRUPT ???
Mark
Should the US leave? Probably not as then China would have from the Bay of Bengal to the Russian border in the East China Sea a sphere of influence that could cause a nightmare of Japanese militaristic expansionist proportions – a dark valley of “Asian Co-operative Sphere” under CCP rule….
However what it should do it make the Asian nations realise that cooperation is vital and a proper cooperative organisation should flourish to include Japan, RoC, all of SE Asia and the Philipines – almost like an EU or Asian – lets call it the AsU for example – make what you have worth something and then if the US retreat from “mainland Asia” to the Pacific Islands then there’s a bulwark in place to defend the Asian oil etc.
Huang
China is NO Japan or the US or any others expansionsits in the past or today. China’s objectives and intentions are purely trades,commerce,and developnments which is stressing from Western Europe to Siberia,from the Arab World to the tip of Afica,from central Asia to New Zealand, and from the Artic and North America to the tip of South America all strictly business and more importantly not meddling in the host country’s internal affairs.
Naturally,there are remnants of sentiments among people in Asia whose understandings of the China is next to blank while at the same time held high regards for their colonial conquerors more out of fears than with respects.
Furthermore,negative views toward China among some Asian people are a product learned over the entire previous century and are not likely to be changed anytime soon. Certainly,these mis-perceptions will change over time by China’s active engagements with neighbors and friends based on mutual respects and mutual trusts,NOT threats and intimidations to gain the illusion of respects.
Dai Shu
Huang, I couldn’t disagree with you more.
The Chinese Communist Party, the Chinese government and many of the Chinese people (note, these are three different things) are much more focused on history than the people and governments of Western countries.
Put simply, they judge from the present, not from the past. Where many Chinese view the world through the prism of the century of humiliation, most Western people have forgotten such history or simply don’t care.
When you say that the negative views of China have been learned over the previous century, I say that’s false. If such views lingered over decades, where are the similar views of Korea? Japan? You’ll find those views don’t exist because those countries have A) become democratic and are a form of the government that other countries can respect and more importantly, predict and B) their behaviour towards their neighbours has not been so erratic or aggressive.
Look at the South China sea for example – that ocean is shared by many, many countries yet China demands it all and defies efforts to even discuss it on a multilateral footing. When pushed, Chinese policymakers and the more hawkish Chinese again become fixated on history, instead of the realities of the present.
The reality currently being that China has alienated all of its neighbours on this issue and driven them towards the US. All that ‘history’ didn’t change this fact.
Huang
You will be proven gravely WRONG to think that the Chinese are solely focussing on the by-gone past. There are many issues requiring historical and other factors to put them into understandable contexts. Besides,there’s no harm in gaining a few extra knowlegde of the past. THE PAST is the chart where future generations use to avoid making the same un-neccassry error and mistakes. Foolish mistakes can be small(harmless)or they can be tragic(setbacks requiring generations to recover from).
Again,some people kept over-emphasizing the Chinese’s attachment to the so-called “century of humiliations,Mao’s crimes” and many other repetitions over and over again based on the mis-informations get bought expecting them to be the real deal(news) when they were in fact been taken for-a-ride all along.
The Chinese know and understand deep in their hearts the period of national weaknesses,the decisions Mao made and how they affected China and how those mistakes should be avoided in the future. Clearly not in the way other people are assuming.
China and the people of China set their sights on the future more than ever before. The Government seek to improve the living standards of the people while the people are working hard to improve the individual life. Now,that is in no way a nation and people looking back to the past-totally on the contrary.
Thank you,its nice to hear your opposing views.
Angelus512
China’s ONLY focus is keeping its ruling CCP party in power. WHATEVER has to be done to ensure that outcome will be done, peace, war etc. Nothing is off-limits. That should be of concern for anybody.
The ruling party cares only for its own continuation and survival.
Huang
The efforts and respossibility to protect and maintain the continuation of the party is NOT exclusively CCP. I am also noticing that all political parties in the US,Europe,and others nations are doing precisely the very thing the Communist Party of China is doing(that is to make sure the party remains to be relevant and enjoying popular supports from the masses). After all,the populace is the sea that keep the boat(party)afloat-its the party’s job to keep the sea as calm as possible.
For the sake of fairness,I think you need to absorb informations both multiple sources in order to obtain the as full a perspective as possible and be amazed to the discover many facts contrary to the traditional Western news reportings.
This is the only way to be fair to yourself and others you otherwise have been mis-understood for so long.
Besides many traditional Western news medias,there all XINHUA,GLOBAL TIME,CNTV,and cntv/military/programs/jsbd(for military news-PLA) showing perspectives of China OR sample the times of India and Hindustan for another views from India and its relations and perspectives of the World.
a_canadian_observer
@Huang: I’m surprised you made such statement about Asian people’s understanding of china. AFAIK, from what I’ve learned, the Vietnamese understand china well, to the point you wouldn’t imagine.
Huang
Absolutely,besides Japan and South Korea,Viet Nam is one country in South East Asia that continuosly interacts with China and emulates many Chinese cultural characteristics(luna calender,ancester-worship,chinese last-names,cooking and dining utensils,the essence of the vietnamsese spoken and written language,celebrate chinese traditional holidays etc…)many(not-all)Vietnamese are NOT yet fully aware of not because they dis-like the Chinese and China but because they were not told the truths about China due to the nation’s un-interrupted periods of in-stabilities(French occupied,Japanese aggressions,US involvements,and civil wars). The whole of Asia including China was being over-ran,overwelhmed,and occupied by several major Western colonial powers and Japan at the time when Asia,notably China was lagging behind technologically and economically. Today(2011),countries in Asia are enjoying a period of peace and stability where economic and social progress were being realized. Hence,the people will finally have an opportunity to learn and understand TRUTHS(NOT anti-Chinese rhetorics spreading around(in the last century)to insure the colonial powers get a non-slip grip on the locals or natives.
Why? Some may asked. They feared the Chinese would lead the locals to kick them out-and they were dead right on that.
Your bits and pieces of mis-informed informations were fed to you for the very purose you received,deciphered,and wrongfully accepted indicated the mis-informnations were fed with good results.
Finally,Viet Nam and all other Asian nations will sooner or later join China in the quest to build a peaceful,stable, and properous Asia. Again,not to impress any one,its just our collective moral responsibility to do.
a_canadian_observer
@Huang: I don’t think you understood my comment well. What I meant was the Vietnamese people understand china well because they always have to defend themself from china’s expansionism. Also, it’s wrong for you to think that the Vietnamese have borrowed all things from china. The last names are a good example. A good number of last names didn’t exist before china annexed and assimilated the people from southern china (Baiyueh). The lunar calendar is another example: it was developed for agricultural purpose, which is mainly the south.
Some other examples of china stealing from others and calimed their own:
- Blue lacquer used in porcelain: this came from Persia,
- Abacus table: this is actually a Phoenician invention,
- chinese “elephant” chess: this actually originated from India.
You talked about china and Asia building a peaceful co-existence. This is laughable, because history and current actions of china don’t support that. There’s credible evdence suggesting that china has been doing everything it can, be it big or small, noble or crooked, actions to de-stabilize Vietnam.
I have a good connection with the Vietnamese and non of whom I know have a slight trust in china. They even look down on china.
Huang
@ a_ canadian_observer,
“I have a good connection with the Vietnamese and non of whom I know have a slight trust in China.They even look down on China.”
Again, just like other commentors,you pretend(to be someone else,or from some countries),made-up(statements based on your wishful thoughts,and faking about the Vietanmese you associated with).
I sense another Bat the pretender.
I would like to hear about India or any others you truly know something about. Absolutely NOT China,Mongolia,Xinjiang,Tibet,Cambodia,Viet Nam and many other North east and South East Asian nations. You guys just kept giving away your degree of understandings about these above issues.
And by the way,the Vietnamese people have a lot of respects and admirations toward China. quarrels and occasional dis-agreements and even lead to wars are in-evitable similar to the Chinese of Taiwan. There will always be some negative sentiments from either sides,yet the over-all relationship remain to be strong. Hence the term “without the fights,deep rooted understandings might never be recognized or experienced”.
Although I can never change or deny your prefered or wished of things to be contrary to what I wrote,I can tell you that what I said were based on prevailing recognitions. Of course,you can always dis-agree.
Finally,I think we are all learners here and no one is a true or real experts bacause for every comments made,there will often be one or more contradicting perspectives against that opinion.
Thank you for sharing a bit more about what you know and don’t quite knowledgable about.
a_canadian_observer
@Huang: It doesn’t matter to me what you think I am. You said “And by the way,the Vietnamese people have a lot of respects and admirations toward China.” Please educate me by providing real proofs/examples, because what’ve found states otherwise.
Huang
@a-comedian-observer,
I don’t think there any good in furnishing any proofs,statistics,mis-informations served on silver platers to many in the so-called “Third World Countries” by many prestigeuos institutions in the West. You see,the only truths that can be gained fron researching on the materials at these institutions are topics such as: the weather systems,new scientific discoveries,and occasional technological break-throughs etc… When it comes to topics or issues relating to China,Russia,or even India,you should expect to find 98% subjective views,1% lack of real understanding,0.5% made-ups(as you tried and failed),and the remaining 0.5% containing traces of truths.
It might appear that I have a tendency to criticize India. The truth is,I have a great deal of respects and admirations toward India the nation and the people. I also understand that those in India(expecially the English language news medias) and abroad frequently venting their hostile and un-truthful rhetorics against China for no good reasons what so ever. I frequently wrote about these so-called “problem fews” who do not and will not represent what India really is-what they are doing only bring disgrace to a great country with many distinct ethnic and linguistic groups that make up the land China respected and will remain to be so long into the furure.
As a matter of fact,I think these anti-China(for all the wrong reasons)individuals are NOT likely to be decendents of many enlightened individuals who made long and dangerous journey to China thousands of years ago just to made sure their wisdom will survive and propagate generations after generations into the modern age.
Don’t get me wrong,I always beleive that 99.9% of the people in India are good and down to Earth individuals,its the select “problem fews”that drag India and China’s legs from most positive co-operations today.
P.S. It is always useful to learn more even if you do not disagree. But remember not to pretend and lie,they never work and never will even in primative tribal social environments.
Thanks for responding to my posts,
a_canadian_observer
@Huang: I tried to debate you re. the Vietnamese and you went off to talk about India! So here is my question to you, again:
You said “And by the way,the Vietnamese people have a lot of respects and admirations toward China.” Please educate me by providing real proofs/examples, because what’ve found states otherwise.
How many Vietnamese have you talked to?
Huang
@a-canadian-observer,
First of all,I am not here to educate anyone. Although I occasionally must correct or clarify some of the posts some people made agaisnt the Chinese based solely on their personal perceptions comprising lies and pretenses of no value to any discussion.
With regard to “real proofs/examples”, I think you know that a few negative attutudes or opinions from one or two Vietnamese don’t reflect the over-all attitude of the nation and the people of Viet Nam. Its a matter of understandings. Merely talking or associating with a few friends that happened to be from Viet Nam usually lead one to make regretable judgements. Some people reside in the country for a year or two would not say they know the country or the people or understand the in dept many crucial aspects of that culture.
Proofs and other research materials are a way some blogers like to furnish when requested-NOT ME. The willingness to learn and the capacity to seek and express ask close as possible to the truths always prevail over any statistics and research materials.
Furthermore, the Vietnamese from the Northern half and the Southern half of the country can’t even agree with each other most of the time let alone with their North neighbor and friend-China. The spoken styles differ from the North,the central highlands,and the Southern Delta regions each have their distinctive ways and sounds in inter-personal communitions. The people of Southern Viet Nam(Saigon,Rach gia,Phu Quoc,and most provinces up to the central highlands live side by side with the Chinese immigrants of Viet Nam for centuries. Inter-marriages and bilinual schools taught both Chinese and Vietnamse in major cities,and working side by side in all professions with displaying any hostilities toward each other. The two people share everything from traditional ancestral worships to the tone in spoken forms.)
During the 1978 border war with China,the population in capital Hanoi and other adjacent provinces near the Chinese border might have some signs of hatreds toward Chinaw while the southern population did not express and negative sentiments when it comes to China(most of them have Chinese ancestries as recently as a century ago).
The China-Viet Nam relations will get better,NOT getting worst and this is my own optimistic view. Of course,there are people who would gladly dis-agree-and thats find with me too. The two governments must work much harder to iron out all the un-neccassary wrinkles that are not only not pretty,but un-comfortable to both sides.
I hope these few facts gained from the ground(not in books,and certainly NOT from researching mis-informations from experts claiming to know everything yet know very
little).
P.S. Please send my regards to the Vietnamese friends you said you have connections with. Thank you,
a_canadian_observer
@Huang: Sorry, pal, but you were still dancing around the issue. You talked of only the 1978 war but for the Vietnamese, it’s went back a lot further then that. I really encourage you to study yourself, because to them, they have been constantly watching out for being “assimilated” by china.
Differences are natural and normal, especially for the narrow and long country like VN. However, their history has proven times and times again, that when the country is invaded, they were very united. That, you can bet on.
Anyway, I enjoy the debate with you, if I put aside your being apologetic to china.
Huang
So! Looks like the train stop here.
Any further discussion would likely lead to nowhere.
Over-all, I have learned a little bit more from your perspective and the Vietnamese you claimed to have “connections with”. I believe there is some good be drawn from your views on each of your posts: dis-agreements toward what ever China does. Dislike and despise the Chinese for reasons only you can or cannot truely understand and that is in NO WAY bother me or the Chinese people.
The Chinese don’t go around hating people for reasons of jealousies(counter-productive),Out of fears(badly need to learn more about China),and historical facts(made up by the French a century ago to distant Viet Nam from China to insure firmer grip on the country,the people). The whole picture on the ground is rosier than you and others think “otherwise”.
One thing is funny, I never meant to be apologetic in my opinions. Is it something you conviniently picked-up from another bloger ? Its just sound out of palce and out on context.
P.S. For every view domonizing China, there will a thousand more made to disprove them because lies and pretensions stop at the piont of deceptions and pretensions-they just cannot move anywhere onward. Now,thats a fact and not lies and pretensions.
Next stop! the truths about China and Veit Nam as the song goes ” Viet Nam trung hoa, song lien song -nui lien nui”