By Minxin Pei
The Chinese public’s tolerance for the government’s high-speed, low-quality growth strategy is wearing thin. Can China’s leaders avert a political crash?
The temperature isn’t the only thing that has been rising in China this summer – public outrage is also apparently boiling in the sweltering Middle Kingdom. The most powerful expression of popular discontent was, without doubt, the nationwide outcry over the crash of China’s new bullet train in Zhejiang Province on July 23 that killed 40 and injured close to 200 passengers. Occurring barely three weeks after Beijing’s high-profile launch of its Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail service, the tragic accident wasn’t just an embarrassment for the Communist Party. The mishandling of the tragedy by the government, ranging from releasing little information on the causes of the crash to hastily burying one of the mangled carriages, further enraged an irate public suspecting a crude cover-up. In face of withering public criticism, Beijing was forced to lower the speed of the high-speed rail service and launch a safety campaign.
Before the firestorm over the train crash receded, the Chinese Internet was lit up with denunciations of Beijing’s policy of holding vast sums of US Treasury debt in its foreign exchange reserves. Although the Chinese government kept a low-profile during Washington’s debt-ceiling debate, Standard and Poor’s downgrade of US sovereign debt in early August provided new ammunition to watchful Chinese citizens who are sceptical of their government’s wisdom in putting two-thirds of their hard-earned foreign currency into low-yielding American government bonds that are sure to lose value against the Chinese renminbi because of the future devaluation risks of the dollar.
Admittedly, Chinese netizens may be hopping mad, but they have little influence to force Beijing to abandon its long-standing policy of keeping most of its foreign exchange earnings in dollar assets. So by comparison, residents of the city of Dalian had much better fortune in making their local mandarins heed their grievances over a polluting chemical plant. On August 14, more than 12,000 people in Dalian staged a rare public rally to call on the local government to relocate a $1.5 billion petrochemical plant located 20 kilometres from the city. When the city’s party secretary met the protestors to assuage their concerns, he was shouted down. Within 48 hours, a chastened city government announced that it would move the two-year-old plant elsewhere. For once, people power prevailed in a one-party state.
These three disparate incidents portend an important political trend in China: the rise of citizen activism. To be sure, this trend isn’t new. But its recent intensification suggests that Chinese politics is entering a more fluid phase during which the old playbook for keeping the Communist Party in power may no longer work.
In the two decades following Deng Xiaoping’s historic tour of south China in 1992, the party has stuck to an effective two pillar survival strategy: promoting economic growth and suppressing democratic opposition. While this strategy has delivered the desired results, recent events indicate that its effectiveness is diminishing.
Photo Credit: Flickr / daren_ck
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Cyrus
@Ozivan Wow, that’s very kind of you letting a religious institution help the people. I really respect you for doing that without any monetary reward. I guess you entered Politics mainly to help people and not because of the POWER and PRIVILEGE that comes along with it.
ozivan
@Cyrus. Thank you for your kind words.
Politics are at 3 levels. Generally, they are Party level politics, State or Provincial Level, and Federal or National Level. I was only involved at party level, and had actually worked for 6 years as the Group Secretary(out of 40 + years of working life) in a politically affiliated organisation with 10,000+ members, all of them were in various ways and degrees, politically savvy. The rest were with commercial multi-national corporations.
You bet I have seen a lot of the motivations of people in politics, from those who are in for… power, privileges, fame , business contacts, opportunists, compliant elements, destructive ones as well, loyal ones, backstabbers, principled and unprincipled members, purging of opponents, political vengeance, elected leaders who subsequently betrayed some of their supporters, friends become enemies, Judas..es and Brutus..es as well,…lots more.
I have looked back and say, I have not wasted my life.
Best wishes to you, Cyrus…my friend. Today, it’s happy Father’s day in Australia.
PS: Isn’t it good news that China & Philippines have patched up after your President Benigno Aquino visited China ?
In politics, there’s no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interest. You’re a political scientist, it’s at the back of your hand…haha
Cyrus
It is good that they have to some degree agreed to codify how the parties are suppose to react on disputed territories. Though it’s gonna take quite a long way before everything is normalize in the West Philippine Sea.
China is claiming the Reed Bank which has always been part of the Philippines. It was just recently that the Reed Bank has become a place of contention between the two countries. Though if China continues to behave at it has now by investing in the Philippines and giving Aid then it will build a goodwill to the Filipino people.
That investment would pay huge dividends in the future just as the goodwill the United States has built with the Philippines.
Calcutta Curry
@Ozivan: “Where it is quietly accepted that stealing eg food, to survive is not a crime…that is, it’s unofficially ignored.”
China is notoriously known for stealing technologies from other countries.
Don’t throw stone when you live in a glass house.
Sinodefender
And other countries don’t steal technology,China doesn’t complain about petty problems like this otherwise there would be a hype over gunpowder,compasses and paper…
ozivan
@Calcutta Curry. Don’t take it in the wrong context.
Personally, I am of the view that it is not a crime to steal food in order to live or feed a family, especially when the chips are all down and there’s no one around to help.
Severe hardships often ocassionally fall on people. It is not right though, but if it is to avoid hunger, we’ll have to look at it in a different light.
Taj Mahal
What I think is not important, what the majority of readers think is. You or me is just a drop in the bucket.
When you write comment to express your view, let readers read and interpret it. They’re quite sophisticated and don’t need anyone to “babysit” them. Don’t brown nose each other. Doing that you just defeat its purpose.
ozivan
@Taj Mahal. I am not trying to be smug. But I know what it is to be down and out, penniless and go without food.
I own a piece of farmland in Malaysia, which I allowed a very kind elderly Indian lady, a devouted christian pastor, to use it as a place for the homeless for the last 6 years. Pastor Indra has since died of cancer one and half years ago, but now the center is run by his son Pastor Daniel, another kind gentle person. There are about, come and go, 50 to 70 homeless, mentally ill and destitute inmates in the center, 80% of whom are poor, homeless Indians. This center provides shelter and food to them free of charge. They even reared about 50 goats and grow their own vegetables, and I cry in me each time I visit the center once in 2 years.
I live in Australia, where the people here do not go hungry and rarely go homeless without being able to seek assistance easily.
ozivan
@Girish. Oh hi..Girish..I have missed you out. You’re my blogging friend too. Thank you for having encountered you in comments.
ozivan
To John Chan, Frank, Leonard R, Sinodefender, a_canadian_observer, Yang Zi. Hi..my blogging friends.
I was a Malaysian Chinese, who had since became a citizen of Australia some time ago. I am retired, but enjoy blogging in the Diplomat to keep my mind active and healthy. Politics have always been a part of me, having been involved in it at party level politics for some 25 years.
ozivan
@Cyrus. I am really old now…that I have missed you out too. Hi..Cyrus, you’re one of the most reasonable and gentle person in Diplomat that I have encountered. I am blessed to have you as my blogging friend. Thanks for speaking out for me at times.
a_canadian_observer
@ozivan: I’ve sensed a decent human being in you a long tima ago. That’s why I’ve never considered you a CCP blogger, never had a word thet disrespects you. Sorry, but I have no respect for people like John Chan, Frank, Sinodefender and Passerby… These people represent arrogance, ignorance, nastiness and a mindset of feudal imperialism, yet having no gut nor capacity other than words…
ozivan
@a_Canadian_observer. Thank you for your kind words.
Kowloon
Chinese teen trades kidney for ipad.
Make sure you don’t export this kind of moral dignity to Vietnam as you did the “hundred flowers blossom” campaign in the past.
Sinodefender
One Chinese kid wants an ipad so he trades his kidney,does that mean all Chinese will do this?Moral dignity,what wars has China started recently,do you see Chinese killing others in the name of a god,do we build bases close to others than have military exercises?
Kung Pao
Selling kidney is not uncommon in that part of the world.China is notoriously known for harvesting kidneys from prison inmates. Hope Chinese government stops this practice. Or they see something that I don’t see: get the most out of everything ? Anyway, don’t spread it around. Thanks.
In this particular case, I just wish he could afford it without that painful process. Myself I got hooked with ipad too.
The point is Chinese people loves western culture too. And they’re normal.
Cyrus
I do not see the reason why you cannot save a life from Prisoners how are sentenced to death. If the prisoner has been sentenced and after his death his organs are harvested to save lives that is by far the best he could do for humanity after what he has done.
nirvana
When discontents turn into riots, it means democracy is not working well. When discontents are expressed peacefully, it means democracy is working nominally. When peaceful expressions of discontents are brutally suppressed, we have an authoritarian regime.
From this, one should normally conclude that there is nothing to be excited about the three popular expressions of discontent by Chinese citizens cited by the author of this article. Or is there anything special about China?
In fact the world did not really care about the outcome of Mao’s “hundred flowers blossom” campaign and hardly care about the outcome of the 1989 Tiananmen crack-down. These are Chinese internal affairs. So why do we care about chaos in today’s China? Because, today chaos in China means a lot of problems to many governments, US and and Westerners in priority.
John Chan
There are two more types of discontent/protest. One is instigated by the foreign entities to destabilize a regime for insidious purposes, and the other one is instigated by internal entities to gain advantages for their insidious purposes too.
Both of those discontents/protests are portrayed by the developed world as human right violation and justification for their bombing and killing regime change.
Billy Andersson
Nonsense , the social unrest in China is about to explode , the Chinese communist party has in most cases answered with the same method that has been used for 60 years, with violence. However the people has started to fight back. China is the only country in the world that has more money put in their domestic security budget then in the military, which can symbolize what is going on inside China.
Almost every week there are large scales protest and violence in China. In the North,south, west and east. And that is the few reports that actually manage to reach media sources outside China, where they in China always try to dig any social unrest into the ground like they tried to do with one of the wrecked trains(pathetic) .
I predict a civil war inside China in a near future, that is why I always say; “Do not fear the chinese military cause they will be preoccupied fighting their own people. Like they have done for 60 years.”
John Chan
@Billy Andsersson:
The additional two types of discontent/protests I mentioned will exist in any country regardless their political systems, be it USA, UK, Germany or China. USA and its lackeys are using them as justification for regime change via bombing and killing. It is a fact.
You are confused; the discontent/protests in China are vivid expression of people’s opinions. The discontent/protests in UK is violent social instability.
Your comment is very contradictory as following:
1. If China does not have media freedom, then how do you know there are large-scale protests and violence in China? Are you admitting that you are making it all up by yourself to smear China with insidious intent?
2. Is it protesting a sign of freedom of expression? Yet you bad mouth it as the beginning of civil war with your mean spirited western mindset, why don’t you tell us the riots in US, UK and in matter of facts all demonstrations in Europe as signs of collapse of western culture?
3. Are you promoting China should be aggressive as the imperialist USA and its lackeys by spending recklessly on bombing and killing machinery? Go and look at the Homeland Security, it is a mammoth monster above laws; it is tramping civil rights left and right.
nirvana
@John Chan,
In any case, when a state used military forces to maintain a regime that state has lost its image as a stabilizing force on the international scene.
John Chan
@nirvana:
Well said, is it the time for NATO to conduct Libya style no-fly zone over England which is using guns to maintain its regime over Jasmine revolution spreading all over England? China will be glad to supply bombs and missiles for the NATO bombing campaigns over England to protect the Jasmine revolution freedom fighters in England.
As you said England is using violence to maintain its regime, therefore it is a regime that has lost its image as a stabilizing force on the international scene.
nirvana
@John Chan,
Firts NATO is not a state but a military alliance. I must add that I do not like military alliances.
Second, you can not compare NATO military actions in Lybia with a state military crackdown of its own people, like in Tiananmen 1989. There were no dictator in Tiananmen square behind Chinese students, who BTW where not looting or rioting.
Third, when I can see a video of an English man in front of row of tanks in Trafagar square, then I can agree with you that England has gone down the path of an authoritarian regime.
Fourth, make a poll in China with the question where do Chinese want to emigrate TODAY. I will bet that England is among the two first choices, even after this summer riots. Do you want to bet with me?
nirvana
@John Chan,
I would like to add a fifth point: Chinese media and other foreign press were allowed to cover the unrests in England. Would you like to bet that, if such riots occur in China, or even a peaceful demonstration starts in Tiananmen square, that foreign press will be welcome to cover the crackdown?
owen mcgowan
You are as blind to reality as Louis XVI was when he wrote in his diary on July 14, 1789, the first day of the French Revolution, when he wrote only “Nothing”.
You are very very selective regarding “the motivation of the protests in China”. Your list assures the continuance of the Chinese Leninist-Stalinist-Maoist Communist Party. You, however, omit “freedom” and you omit “dignity”. Without those you are as wrong as Louis XVI, as time will soon enough show.
ozivan
@Owen mcgovan. I am assuming that your reply is directed at me, and you said : Your list assures the continuance of the Chinese Leninist-Stalinist-Maoist Communist Party.
Wrong ! China is now Chinese Capitalist-Communist-Pragmatic Party. You have been taught too long to have negative views of China, that inspite of tremendous improvements to the living standards of the Chinese in the last 30 years by the Chinese Government/CCP, you refuse to acknowledge them by you broadbrushing it as “blind”.
Freedom ? What freedom ? Freedom as what you see… it should be ?
Freedoms to many Chinese, and I am sure in many of the poor sectors of Asian, African & South Asian societies too, are to have firstly; 3 good meals, shelter, warm clothing, clean water and sanitation. But China has even more now, like the freedom to do business, to change jobs, to dress well, to choose to eat whatever foods depending on his means, to buy his own home, choose his type of transport, vehicles, plenty more….and say, shout or sing whatever he wants so long as he doesn’t :
1. undermine the stability of the State
2. treason to the country
3. cause harm or nuisance to his fellow citizens
Of course, basic needs are things that are taken for granted in the West, but not necessarily so for many African, South Asian & Asian countries where income disparities are great.
Dignity ? It is dignified for Westerners to tout their gay and lesbian habits proudly and publicly or be bestowed with knighthoods eg Sir Elton John. Nay..to Asians, Indians & Muslims, it is ultimate shame to the family eg Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia charged in court for sodomy. For that is their value system.
A friend of mine just back from a business trip from Calcutta, India related that he saw a slum dwelling family brushing their teeth from a road pothole that was filled with rainwater. Out of curiosity, he explored and seen thousands of slum dwellers still living in deplorable conditions. Millions of people still bathing from rivers that are also part of their sanitation systems. Street urchins everywhere out to make a dime for survival. Where it is quietly accepted that stealing eg food, to survive is not a crime…that is, it’s unofficially ignored.
Is that supposed to be the dignity, as you insist ? Where’s the priority ?
You’re using Western values to measure Asian standards, when all the conveniences, amenities, abundance of food etc are taken for granted by you (like I am having in Australia). I say well and good…Bless us in the West for having them, but say not anything belittling for those less fortunate. Freedom from hunger, dignity of a home, clean water and amenities are higher priorities.
What more that China has more.. and getting better each day. They lifted 500 million out of poverty in 30 years to middle class Chinese standard, though still a long way to go. Social harmony precedes unfettered freedoms, for a population that’s so huge to manage.
This is not to say that China should not strive to eventually have the same living standards, freedoms like in the West modified by Eastern cultures, and Asian-cultured dignities. But to simplistically condemn China’s achievements to date to the dustbin by your Louis XVI blind narration is uncalled for.
Sure, time will soon show…but it might be that China’s trajectory to democracy within 20 to 30 years may become a young and vibrant democracy, healthy, wealthy and thriving,
…while our matured democracies may suffer from unmanageable overspending, welfares, misguided values, misplaced dignities, hung parliaments, endless partisans squabbles, incessant disorder from black and muslim migrants, etc etc.
Lastly, I wish that all bad things not happen to the West, China or any other countries. That my wish, whether they are all achievable..is another matter.
Owen McGowan
“China is now Chinese Capitalist-Communist-Pragmatic Party.” Not so. I stick to my assertion that the Communist Party of China is still Leninist-Stalinist-Maoist because this Party runs an army of secret police, thousands of torturers and a gulag many many times larger than Russia’s ever was. A country that spends more on internal controls than external security is Leninist-Stalinist-Maoist to the core.
ozivan
If the motivation of the protests in China is from :
the desire by its citizens to have a safer environment eg. the Dalian chemical plant protest,
or, against economic costs like increasing port and fuel charges eg. the Shanghai truckers strike,
or, for better safety standards eg. the high speed rail crash
or, against deteriorating social services
or, against corruption
or, against incompetent and errant officials
or, even for the lack of speedy administration of justice for crimes eg. the coal mine truck drivers in Inner Mongolia who stupidly mowed down the locals
…and many other likes…are nothing of great worry for China.
I wouldn’t be worrying over these protests however many, since they are only healthy, especially if the Chinese State/CCP learn to accept them. Occurrences of protest, that are of non-destructive nature to the political entity and indivisibility of the country, are rarely grave threats to the civil law and order.
The troublesome ones are the protests :
- that call for the overthrow of the Government/CCP..whether internally inspired or externally instigated..like the Jasmine revolution, Arab spring,
- and those of a treasonable nature that breaks up the country, or those that create chaos, anarchy eg. the 2011 English riots, 2008 Paris riots
- or, those which weakens the nation.
China admits that thousands of protests happen annually, which should be read positively, since the country is still intact. If otherwise, they would have driven China asunder. Many other countries have it, if not in numbers, then by its ferocity like the English riots.
Of course, detractors would prefer to see China self-destruct in chaos.
Hope they’ll be disappointed.