By Trefor Moss
Do Chinese carriers alter the balance in the Taiwan Strait?
The PLA’s modernisation programme has been heavily guided by the Taiwan contingency, and China already has over 1,300 missiles in place with which to strike the island. So it’s hard to see how a Chinese aircraft carrier changes the calculus. In fact, the carriers are probably the clearest indication of post-Taiwan thinking that the PLA has demonstrated to date. Still, Taiwan reacted to the launch of Shi Lang by trumpeting its new Hsiung Feng III anti-ship cruise missile, complete with a picture of the weapon dispatching a Chinese carrier. Yet this was only a PR exercise – Taipei knows that the PLA’s missiles, not its new ship, are the real threat. It’s ironic that while the original Shi Lang was a Qing commander who captured Taiwan, this Shi Lang has little prospect of following meaningfully in his footsteps, even if China one day reclaims the island.
What are the implications for the South China Sea?
The possession of aircraft carriers undermines China’s argument that its defence strategy is purely defensive in nature. As a power-projection asset, an aircraft carrier has no defensive application, and this fact hasn’t been lost on China’s neighbours. Vietnam, for example, is investing in six Russian Kilo-class submarines in direct response to PLAN modernisation (though not aircraft carriers specifically) – mainly because it disbelieves China’s statements of benign intent. ‘The Kilos plus Vietnam’s Sukhois, as well as the land-based Bastion [anti-ship] missiles that Vietnam has, would all be a big problem for a Chinese flotilla,’ explains Carlyle Thayer, a professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy. So we return to the PLA’s age-old problem: communication. China has never articulated what its aircraft carriers are for, and until it does so its neighbours – already sensitive about perceived acts of aggression in the disputed zones of the South China Sea – will continue to wonder whether Chinese power is about to be projected in their direction. ‘It’s for some of those smaller powers on China’s periphery, much more than Taiwan or the US, that this could fundamentally change things and force them to respond,’ says William Murray, a professor at the US Naval War College. ‘China is going to have a tough time persuading them.’
China’s aircraft carriers, far from being the anachronistic conventional weapons they seem, could therefore prove to be the most impressive asymmetric weapons that China has developed so far: warships that pack an almighty diplomatic punch – raising esteem at home and commanding respect abroad – but which aren’t designed for battle. Meanwhile, the United States and others will expend a huge amount of energy over the next few years trying to figure out if this is really the case.
Reddit
Digg
StumbleUpon
Delicious
Technorati
Yahoo
Google
Plurk
Ok
South American countries are becoming more concerned of the security threat on sea from US warships, Chinese aircraft carriers presence in this region and con joint military exercises with south American countries can make them feel safe about their security on sea. I mean, after all, should the peace of the people of south America be violated by any warmongers, not matter how powerful they are, the people of china will be obliged to fight along side with people of south America against violence without second of hesitation. I am a young Chinese, although my countrys government may not think the same as my opinion, but I am determined, as time goes, more and more Chinese who loves justice and peace will think the same as me.
Willizyoyo
China will never want to become hegemony in the Asian region. History proof better than talking. Do you guys remember when China attacked Vietnam and India incidents? China just wanted to teach them a lesson because, the first one was arrogant and naively thought they should take all the credits. But China sacrifices the most included lost many soldiers, supplied them strategies, weapons, medications and foods. India was getting carried away and stubbornly creates troublesome to China provoked the border war and lost the war badly. Undeniable, many military experts as well as Indian superior officers also believed China can storm in even further. Conversely, China didn’t do that because she does not want to conquer other land that not belongs to her. India has many times infuriated China on border disputes, such as encouraging and instigating Tibet and Xinjiang to seek for independence. I mean, what are their bad intentions? What are their motives? What benefits they will get? India tends to compete with China, in fact, India didn’t realize their positions and strengths were only being able to compare with Pakistan. India is slightly on the upper hand because they have more people, but compare to nuclear power, nuclear missiles stockpiles and deliver systems and range. Apparently, India is still way behind of Pakistan, let alone China.