The US must be careful not to make China feel like it is being contained. A mix of co-operation and balancing is a much better course.
Over the past two years, the United States has deepened its strategic engagement in Asia to balance China’s more assertive foreign policy and its military modernization, both of which have rattled the region. This balancing has included developing new strategic partnerships with Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, deepening existing alliances with South Korea, Australia, and Japan, pressuring China in multilateral forums, and taking steps to maintain US force projection capabilities.
As a strategy, balancing reassures US allies and partners in Asia, but it also runs a risk –executed poorly, it could make rivalry with China a self-fulfilling prophecy. Balancing against China could empower hardliners in Beijing who argue that they can’t trust the West and discredit those who favour a prudent and cautious foreign policy. Yet failure to balance would tell the hardliners that they can pursue a revisionist foreign policy without resistance from the United States – hardly a recipe for stability. This is the balancing dilemma – how to deter a competitor from a revisionist foreign policy without discrediting those individuals who seek partnership with the West.
Take the growing tensions and competition in the South China Sea as an example. In China, it’s widely believed that Vietnam, the Philippines and others are stoking rivalry around disputed territories to get the United States to balance China now before Beijing is strong and confident enough to resist. As the US responds, China worries about encirclement and containment. This perception provides hardliners with a powerful argument – only a tougher, anti-western line can stop a strategy of encirclement before it’s too late. On a recent trip to China, I heard some foreign policy analysts express considerable concern that this argument could resonate with an increasingly nationalistic population, particularly in a crisis, and lead to a shift toward the hardliners.
However, the United States can’t just maintain the military status quo. US balancing is in response to a noticeable shift in Chinese defence and foreign policy. Chinese military modernization, such as the development of its ballistic missiles, puts major US bases at risk. Reform of the US force posture, including the dispersal of US forces throughout the region, is necessary simply to maintain the credibility of US commitments in Asia. Avoiding such reform might appear to be the status quo, but in reality it would severely undermine it.
However, even if the current strategy is defensible, the dilemma remains. To understand how the United States can balance China while avoiding unintended consequences, it’s necessary to draw a distinction between two types of balancing strategies.
The type of balancing, known as containment, that the United States engaged in during the Cold War was aimed at weakening its adversary. Containment’s key political objective was to sow the seeds of discord within the Soviet Union so it would ultimately collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. The United States sought to delegitimize the Soviet Union, isolate it, weaken it economically, and undermine it from within. Only Nixon demurred, accepting the right of the Soviet Union to exist as an empire. Containment was a form of cold warfare. The ultimate goal was victory and transformation of the international order.
The second type of balancing is to preserve the equilibrium. This strategy accepts the right of a rival to exist and even prosper, as long as it does so in a manner consistent with the status quo. This type of balancing characterized most of 19th century European statecraft. States competed with each other, often sought an upper hand and strategic advantage, and occasionally fought. But they always seek to preserve the basic shape of the state system and ensure that its member states enjoy stability, peace, and the recognition of their legitimate interests. This type of balancing was almost entirely absent during the Cold War, save for a brief period of détente during the Nixon administration and at the end of the Reagan administration.
Photo Credit: White House
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Roger
too generic, any useful ideas??
Leonard S
Don’t be surprised with all the current problems affecting the US, Obama might want to deflect the American public with a war dance in the ME and the threat
NK’s nm poses.History is full of example of this.
According to the freedom of Info act,the Tonkin crisis was engineered to give Johnson an excuse to get Congressional authority to bomb NV and send 58000 young Americans to their doom.The rest is history.Bush said Saddam has wmd and attacked Iraq. The US is suffering.
I hope the US public won’t fall for another one on Iran.Let’s consider a hypothetical case. US ships are in the vicinty of Iran when under attack.As a result the US declares war on Iran. Now the US is millions sorry thousands of km
from Iran.Why should it sail into waters near Iran . This is deliberate provocation.And don’t give the bull shit it is for freedom of navigation and other trash.Back off and there will less trouble and more young GIs need not die
because of the whims of US political leaders.
George China
This in reply to CO . The US has conventional and nuclear superiorioty over China.It can destroy China many times over.The fact is the PLA is modernising not to attack the US. It’s the other way round.
Any one will be naive or insane to confront a bully. However if the US were to push the PLA into a corner,it it will fight back.This will be a war which US forces have never encountered and I hope it never happens.
For starters the Vietnam war will pale into insignificance.The whole of China will be blown up as will 50 % of CONUS suffer enormous destruction.This is the stark reality confronting US presidents. No more sending carriers into the Taiwan Straits.The 7th fleet will be another titanic.
Btw no anti shield missile,alpha or gamma rays,missile killers,death rays,etc,will enable damage limitation to the conus.The PLA is building up its forces which at a minimum,cause the White House to evaluate options before sending drones or bomber or missiles into Chinese territory.
Bart
There are too many China stories if there are any more China stories you neeed to change the name of this site to The Chinese.
We have become obsessed with China everthing that happens in China this day’s draw hunderds of comment in several news sites from street vendor riots to train accidents to GDP numbers to family policies. You know there is more to Asia than China.
George China
China’s naval modernisation is causing nervousness in the nations of South East Asia.This is a provocative headline by the western media to demonize China. Btw have the Chinese Navy attacked another country?In contrast the west especially the US has a propensity to use its military to attack weak ME countries.
The Chinese aint itching for a fight with the US. They want to be prepared in case a Taiwan war breaks out.They don’t want to be like Mao’s time or the opium era or back in the 90s.Then the US navy carriers could have positioned itself in the Taiwan Straits and rain tomahwak missiles and destruction on China . PLA retaliation then would have been limited.
Now ff to 2011.If the US navy ever attempts the same thing,it would be sunk to the depths of the ocean.The PLA is tailored for defence unlike US forces configured for attack which they have done many times since 1945.Granted the US will prevail but the price payable is out of proportion unless the US wants to carve up China like the SU.However rest assured the PLA is well prepared for any eventuality.When Obama sees the price to be paid ,he would ban any talk of it.
Btw the US could have obliterated NK from the world map but the price would be a few thousand GI deaths and enormous destruction in SK.
a_canadian_observer
@George China: “China’s naval modernisation is causing nervousness in the nations of South East Asia.” This is a natural reflex.
“This is a provocative headline by the western media to demonize China.” This is your CCP talking point, which is not worth considering.
“Btw have the Chinese Navy attacked another country?In contrast the west especially the US has a propensity to use its military to attack weak ME countries.” They have! But they disguised their ships as surveilance ships when in fact those are chinese military ships.
“The Chinese aint itching for a fight with the US.” They wouln’t dare
” They want to be prepared in case a Taiwan war breaks out.They don’t want to be like Mao’s time or the opium era or back in the 90s.Then the US navy carriers could have positioned itself in the Taiwan Straits and rain tomahwak missiles and destruction on China . PLA retaliation then would have been limited.
Now ff to 2011.” OK.
“If the US navy ever attempts the same thing,it would be sunk to the depths of the ocean.” We’ll see.
“The PLA is tailored for defence unlike US forces configured for attack which they have done many times since 1945.” Don’t kid yourself. We all know the chinese’ intention.
mc
@a_canadian_observer: and what chinese intention is that? the proof is in the pudding, china has never colonized or destroyed entire cultures. unlike your british/french colonialist. the plight of native americans anyone? the chaos in africa anyone? the mess in the the middle east anyone? all the evil imperialistic hand of europe and the US. the hypocrisy of the west knows no bounds.
Tendar Tsering
China occupied Tibet and killed thousands of Tibetans and destroyed hundreds of monasteries! China is a big liar. No one can trust and that’s crystal clear from the past history. I am a Tibetan to be honest. I love Tibet, I live china too but I hate Chinese government- the CCP policies.
a_canadian_observer
@mc: No doubt the British/French/Dutch had done a number of bad things in the past. The fact is they have the cougrage to admit their wrongdoings and have documented their deeds. The chinese, on the other hand, do not have the courage to even let the international journalists into the conflict areas (Tibet, Xinkiang, Inner Mongolia…) to discover the truth. Enough said.
Temujin
The world should welcome a responsible china as it rise but the region and the world must confront china if it chose war over peace and harmony as it rise.
In the last few years, China has become a threat and not an opportunity to region as it absurdly laid claims on international water and islets belongs to neighbors as theirs.
As China’s intentions and evil motives (world domination) start to unfolded, the china’s threat to mankind is a crytal clear.
megakids
@Temujin
“absurdly laid claims”??
You read history? How about go back to 1945 first, then back to 1850, then back to 1634….equip yourself with more knowledge first, then comment.
Girish
What kind of history are you talking about? history cannot serve the purpose to making the claims. History are manipulated as well as they are either written by some person or the governments. Those documents do not come from the heavens.
Also control of land & water keeps of changing with time. It is better to settle with what someone is having or go and get it by force if that is so important thing and can justify a war.
But claiming because it was once controlled is a useless claim.
John Chan
@Girish:
Indians are creating their history with creative revisionist writing, it does not mean other nations in the world would be as shameless as Indian when they write their history, a lot nations write their history with integrity.
It seems you are promoting anarchy, “But claiming because it was once controlled is a useless claim.” means no nation needs justification to overrun another nation as long as it has means. No wonder India is so bellicose and invading neighbouring countries since it existence. You surely give other nations with rightful justification to put India under control.
Sinodefender
So survival of the fittest? China controls part of it right now so it has legal claim. So you justify how the Americas were overrun by Europeans screaming manifest destiny, or how Asia and Africa got colonized? Without history, one cannot learn from past mistakes.
Federalist
You know, the history of how China was the dominant power in East and Central Asia and the co-dominant power in Southeast Asia with India. What claim does the United States have to the Pacific? The Pacific is not a Western Culture area, it is an Eastern Area, just like how the South China Sea is a Chinese culture area.
John Chan
As China is getting stronger by the day, the anti-China clique is getting more desperate by the day. They started to hallucinating and troll meaningless rhetoric.
Girish
thats the way things work in this world. Now the ball is in Chinese court to prove everyone wrong and establish the fact that China is a responsible and pease loving nation. It has to earn the respect and not impose it.
Well all great powers have faced this situation and so does China has to face too.
So Chinese, show your talent rather then cursing others.
John Chan
@Girish:
Chinese bloggers do not use bad language in this forum, Chinese bloggers only point out anti-China bloggers’ ugly behaviour.
It seems you have set up a kangaroo court to try China already, basically your statements say that the anti-China clique can slander and smear China with self-righteousness. Your hubris is beyond words.
China will act in according to its own principle and conscience. China will do what’s right and beneficial for the world and its people. China will overcome all evil powers that try to stop her from doing good deeds.
Sinodefender
Then others can help by not intruding onto China’s border disputes like the USA or India they are not the ones disputing. China doesn’t enslave, colonize, or commit genocide like the West that is how one earns respect.
minae
The anti-China means the whole world, except China. You’re utterly alone in your ridiculous demand for the entire South China Sea, based on some flimsy ‘historical’ evidence:
- There is no record of Chinese claim to the South China Sea and its islands, merely misleading interpretation of some ancient Chinese text.
- The ‘historical’ factor itself does not count. Otherwise, Italy could lay claim to the whole Meriterranean as successor to the Roman Empire, modern-day Macedonia could rule Iraq and Afghanistan as Alexander the Great’s descendants. Did Admiral Zheng He’s stopover in southern Vietnam make China the sovereign of Vietnam ? Stupid !
- China could never prove its uninterrupted possession and administration of any rock, reef, islands on South China Sea. But Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei can always.
It’s you, China, that’s hallucinating.
Federalist
Sinodefender, that is where we differ. China has grown much, much larger since the Xia and Shang Dynasty, which was mainly through military conquest and cultural conversion, which can be considered a form of imperialism. Qin Shi Huangdi also used slaves to build the Great Wall, although slavery was seen as disgusting after the fact. Also, Mao is the greatest genocidal maniac of all time. His policies killed millions of people.
Yes, today’s China is different, but it is similar to its past. The wrongdoings do not make its claims any less legitimate.
Sinodefender
Then I can say the same thing about Vietnam’s flimsy evidence. Proof that it is misinterpretation , Chinese fishermen lived there during the Tang, Song patrolled those areas, Ming and Qing it was in China’s jurisdiction and even the French recognized the claims(Sino-Tonkin delimitation line which the islands were East of). 1932 France stole these islands, Japan took it from the French and when they lost they gave it to the ROC. Phạm Văn Đồng agreed to the Chinese 12 dashed line. Vietnamese claims are based on 18th century(Gia Long) while Song was much earlier… The Roman empire collapsed, China did not. Some stupid people claim Annam as China’s province but others claim Guangdong,Guangxi and Hainan as Vietnamese provinces… The UNCLOS was signed by all the countries but all of them expect Brunei made exceptions to the SCS and islands. China is not on opium anymore, China is rising.
Sinodefender
What was strange is that Shang didn’t view Zhou as family they viewed them as barbarian. Why I don’t mention how the Hua culture spread is because you will see nationalist claiming Southern China as Yue and not Han. Unfortunately, one cannot edit their posts and I was going to state massacring natives around the areas, yes Chinese expelled the Bai Yue but in turn they also assimilated and I probably have some Bai Yue blood. Qin Shi Huang was a genius who actually united China with the same systems but he was too practical and didn’t try to win the hearts of the people that’s why his dynasty didn’t even hit a century. However, Qin Shi Huang was wise to use prisoners, what else are they going to do? I have to agree Mao was a great tactician but an incompetent political leader. Stupid “cultural revolution” and “great leap forward” resulted in mass genocide. Personally, visiting Taiwan, they are more traditional if a little Japan obsessed society. Since my Grandfather fled with his school with the KMT government, later my family in China were denied supplies and had only one measly blanket to share in the family. However, relations between Taiwan and China are much better and people can actually communicate. I was just stating how the U.S. is a hypocrite saying how China has child labor and forced prostitution while they enslaved blacks and Native Americans and the early 19th century they had child labors.
John Chan
@minae:
Japan definitely is not the world, it is just a tiny island nation in the ocean, and it can be easily sunk into ocean if mother nature gets angry at its bad behaviour.
Japan occupying Ryukyu kingdom and claiming islands thousands miles away from its homeland nearly right up to the coast of ROC, it is ridiculous demand and stupid too.
Historical factor does not automatically allow one nation exercising ownership of a place; but it is one of the deciding factors to legitimise the ownership claim of a place. Maybe Chinese should dig out some old document to show that Chinese had been in Japan before the Japanese.
China has stronger proof than all other nations to claim ownership of the islands in the nine dashed lines in South China Sea.
nirvana
@sinodefender: If China is so certain of its “undisputable” right to own 80% of the SCS, it could bring the matter to an International court. The fact that China prefers to use Naval force (at least twice) and categorically refuse to have an arbitration, shows that China knows that the legality of its claim is weak.
Nobody beleives that China naval build-up is for defending its seas against Vietnamese and Philippines. These states navies are no match to the PLA Navy.
Make no mistake, the PLA Navy build up is to challenge the US and possibly Japan. The recent skirmishes were to test the US. Same motivation as in 1979, when China decided to “teach Vietrnam a lesson”. The real goal was to test the Soviet. Military powers are always looking for war.
Cyrus
The Philippine point is simple. Let the International Courts decide that way it is a third party who decides.
It will never be resolved if both China and the Philippines who are talking bout the claims because we will never agree. Or if China would leave the Philippines alone on the Islands it now occupies then no problem.
John Chan
Vietnam and Philippines encroached Chinese islands in the South China Sea with force, there is nothing wrong they are to be kicked out of those islands with force too.
a_canadian_observer
@John Chan: china owns nothing in the SCS. china is trying to rob this area from the SEA nations, since natural resources have been discovered. If china has strong proof, it would have taken the case to the UN and resolves it peacefully, since keeping face if a chinese character. This is pure greed, a case of a bandit crying that he is the victim. Pathetic!