It’s not only the Kachin who are in danger, but every ethnic army in Burma, as few are ready to accommodate Naypyidaw’s demands. Like the other ethnic armies, the Kachin continue to hope that the ‘new’ government will respect the Panglong agreement made in 1949. During an interview at the KIA headquarters in April this year, Lama Gum Hpan said that if the new Burmese government were willing to work with the Kachin people to ‘form a real and authentic federal union,’ then the KIO (the political wing of the KIA) would help them to do so, and join the state army. The Kachin people, he says, have always been committed to this under the conditions of the Panglong Agreement. He also added that the Kachin people have tried to enter domestic politics, but three parties were barred from joining the 2010 elections. ‘Even when we try to work with them through democratic ways, they prevent any progress,’ he says.
When Maj. Soe Win, the commander of the Burmese army’s Northern Regional Command, was reported to have said, ‘The age of Panglong has been cancelled and it’s gone now,’ this confirmed to the Kachin that there’s little chance Burma will have a functioning federal union in the near future. The Burmese offensive against the Kachin has only buried the hopes of ethnic minorities throughout the country. In the face of such threats, ethnic leaders from all corners are attempting to form their own union, without Naypyidaw. The United Nationalities Federal Council Union of Burma (UNFC), as it has been called, would see ethnic armies being legally bound to provide military support to those being attacked by the Burmese state army. If this is achieved, both Naypyidaw and Burma more widely could be in serious trouble, as the country descends into war on all fronts.
In order to avoid impending doom, many are looking to China as a way out. While the international community continues to release statements, nothing they do will have any weight compared with how China chooses to use its leverage over Burma. The United States and the EU can threaten Naypyidaw all day long, but without a real attempt by China to end the conflict, little will be achieved. The change needs to come from within. While Suu Kyi and other political activists fight for ethnic rights and keep the struggle alive, it’s proven that they have little effect on the generals’ mentality.
In the ‘new’ government, mainly made up of former generals, there are some moderates, and as the hardliners coerce the country into a renewed state of war, these moderates must find a way to change the mentality of their leadership. This is no mean feat when faced with generals who seem hell bent on wiping out any ethnic resistance, however small, to their rule of the country. If they continue along this route, then the country and its people will be destroyed. The Kachin, it appears, won’t back down, and while it’s unclear how long they can continue to repel government troops, the fighting spirit of the KIA and other ethnic groups has evidently not diminished, despite signing ceasefires.
‘We’re ready to fight for our ethnic rights, self-determination and justice for Kachin people,’ says La Sam, a 19-year-old cadet, before running off to his next training drill. ‘We will never back down.’
Alex Ellgee is a British freelance journalist based in Thailand covering ethnic conflict, politics, and human rights issues.
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ozivan
In Australia, I have attended a number of fund raising campaigns for the Kachin’s cause organised by Kachins who are permanent residents in Australia, but never really got to know what it’s all about as they are quite reticent. So this is an interesting article for me.
They are exemplary PR or citizens in Australia,… as I see them.
Pavithra
China brought peace to the northern borders of Burma in late-seventies and early eighties when it commenced its economic development plans to uplift several of its poor and backward provinces. Yunnan was one of them. China was keen to access the Bay of Bengal for trade and commerce through Burma. It leaned on several Burmese insurgent groups, including its protege the Burma Communist Party, to exchange arms for peace with the Rangoon authorities. Burma has seen profit by this policy of its northen neighbor and will continue to earn more making a mockery of the western sanctions. China will do every thing possible to keep peace in this sensitive area including making a deal with the Kachins. Beijing does not want ethnic problems when it has had enough of the Tibetan and Xinjiang variety. The article and its analysis by several commentators is indeed note-worthy.
Th
Michael Turton
Excellent and informative. Thank you very much for this.
Burmawatcher
Perfect Analysis.
mareo2
I think that put too much hope on the CCP foreign policy is not very wise, but typical from people who still hope that the CCP “be a responsible stakeholder and use their leverage for keep peace”. After all the PRC’s investments are all about profit, not about encourage or pressure a regime. Their official selling point is promoted as “we do business not politics”. If a civil war start, it is not impossible that the CCP end selling weapons to both sides.
Also the very existence of semi-autonomous regions in the neighbor Burma with their own militias can be perceived in Beijing as a bad example for ethnic minorities in China like in the Tibet and Xijiang regions. To say that the CCP can feel somewhat uncomfortable with them is not exaggerated.
Bismo
Interesting analysis. Some businessmen who are close to the regime have told me that the recent changes in Burma are a direct result of the central government’s realization that the Chinese had actually been supporting the local militias against the military. As trade with Burma thus far has been heavily geared towards China, the regime wanted to end their dependence and is now targeting a lifting of sanctions by Q2 of next year. Another theory to throw out there but who knows…