The US, China and Southeast Asian nations look likely to keep clashing in the South China Sea. But there are ways to ease tensions.
To the casual observer, recent security tensions in Asian waters might seem a storm in a Chinese teacup. The spectacle of opposing vessels – often motley flotillas of civilian patrol boats, fishing trawlers and survey ships – jostling near contested reefs, rocks and islets in the South and East China seas is the kind of activity that was likened back in Cold War days to a game of ‘nautical chicken’. Surely, in an age of economic interdependence and nuclear weapons, this petty posturing wouldn’t lead to great-power war?
Yet such wishful thinking ignores the real dangers of Asia’s China-centric maritime incidents. In the absence of effective mechanisms for crisis-management and confidence-building, these events are increasing in frequency and intensity. The harassment by Chinese civilian vessels of the USNS Impeccable in 2009 presaged a serious set of encounters in 2010, including North Korea’s sinking of the Cheonan and a diplomatic crisis between China and Japan over the ramming of a Japanese customs vessel near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
Though major power tensions have eased somewhat in 2011, encounters have continued. Chinese helicopters have continued to ‘buzz’ Japanese naval units, even in the sensitive period following Japan’s earthquake and tsunami. In March, a Philippine survey ship was shadowed and harassed by Chinese patrol boats, eliciting formal diplomatic protests from Manila. More recently, in May and June, Chinese patrol boats have allegedly severed seismic cables aboard Vietnamese vessels operating near disputed territories in the South China Sea. Washington has weighed in, particularly with signals of reassurance to its ally Manila – prompting Chinese warnings about fanning flames and getting burned.
At the weekend, Sino-US and Sino-Vietnamese talks seem to have put a lid on the simmering tensions. And the chance that such incidents will lead to major military clashes shouldn’t be overstated. But each encounter involves risks, however small, of miscalculation and casualties. As the number and tempo of incidents increases, so does the likelihood that an episode will escalate to armed confrontation, diplomatic crisis or possibly even conflict. An accumulation of incidents could also play into a wider deterioration of relations among major powers, with dangerous implications for regional peace and stability.
The Mystery of Motives
Due in large part to the secrecy that shrouds Chinese defence policy, analysts and policymakers seeking to understand Chinese-initiated maritime incidents face the critical problem of trying to work out why each event has happened. Chinese maritime harassment, of course, may be carried out for a number of direct purposes: to intimidate, test resolve and reactions, assert territorial boundaries, collect photographic intelligence, or disrupt the activities of the target vessel, be they intelligence collection, seabed exploration or military exercises.
But is it politically motivated, instigated at the highest echelons of political leadership in Beijing? Does it come from senior levels within the People’s Liberation Army, acting without civilian sanction or direction? Does it reflect positioning for influence in PLA doctrinal debates, or perhaps contests for career advancement? Is it essentially a decision by a local PLA unit commander, or indeed the spontaneous action of a reckless naval officer or pilot? Are other agencies, such as maritime auxiliaries, playing their own assertive games? Or is there a large measure of miscommunication or simple accident at work? Almost any answer carries disturbing implications about China’s ability to control the risks along its perilous maritime edge.
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guest
NB: On July 5th, even after a Vietnamese diplomat is in Beijing, armed PLA soldiers are still beating Vietnamese fishermen. Story in Yahoo News July 14th. Look it up.
Either the PLA had the OK from Beijing to do this – or Beijing can’t keep a leash on the PLA. Take your pick. As the authors pointed out, either way it’s a big problem for the world.
**
The authors wrote:
“…is it politically motivated, instigated at the highest echelons of political leadership in Beijing? Does it come from senior levels within the People’s Liberation Army, acting without civilian sanction or direction? Does it reflect positioning for influence in PLA doctrinal debates, or perhaps contests for career advancement? Is it essentially a decision by a local PLA unit commander, or indeed the spontaneous action of a reckless naval officer or pilot? Are other agencies, such as maritime auxiliaries, playing their own assertive games? Or is there a large measure of miscommunication or simple accident at work? Almost any answer carries disturbing implications about China’s ability to control the risks along its perilous maritime edge.”
Charles_123
All this claim that China violate vietnam territory is nothing but bull. The UNCLOS convention was signed by China with note of reservation that it does not apply to china’s claim on spratly. Plus China claim is preceded UNCLOS by hundred of years.
History do have weight when it come to territory right otherwise Britain claim on Malvinas is illegal.
Another misconception is Vietnam retain independence because it beat China in the past True enough but at the same time Vietnam always accept China suzerainty over Vietnam, knowing that winning battle doesn’t mean they can win the war if China keep the pressure.
Warmonger
As long as China still have ambitious of CONQUERE, INVADE Vietnam, there won’t be the true friendship between two nation as your smooth say. As Vietnam motto is “Nothing more valueable than independacy, freedom and happy”. So if you try to invade our mother land we will definitely fight back event if it cost of our life.
We are brave but not foolish thought. It is very true that China is much stronger than Vietnam, so Vietnam alway try hard to maintance peace. But it no mean because you stronger you can take what ever you want. It’s not ages of pirates. And the anccient say: there alway have stronger one outside the world.
It look like this time we really need the stronger one to judge then.
guest
Looks like another invasion from shietnam’s 50dongs gang.
Van Xiem
I think China will not attack Vietnam for near future since price of the war is very high. But in future, China does. So Vietnam must take its eye on China and never believe that China is a peace state. Vietnam must find itself true friends to balance force with China.In “Art of War” Sun Tzu said: don’t think that enemy does not come to meet us, but must think how we can meet enemy if he comes; don’t think that enemy does not attack us, but must think how to do something so that enemy’s attack on us is impossible.
david
Funny, some vietnamese is quoting the work of an ancient chinese general while renouncing chinese intentions, whatever that is. Who dont quote some american warmongers’ arm-flailing and fist pumping speeches, something like ” even there is no monsters, we will create one to destroy”. Speaking of friends that can be wily nily strung along for the cause of vietnam, who do u have in mind. India, russia, or ultimately, usa. Lets assume that they are up for the task, what can u offer in return? Ur economy is train wreak, insufficient foreign reserve( enough for mere one month import) or ur exemplary human rights record.
PeaceLover
david,
thanks to your great strategist, china had lost to the Mongolians, the Manchu people, the Russians, the Japanese, the British, ect., to name just a few! War is not good for anybody, even the big bully thug, china!!
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MF23Ad01.html
warmonger
Event the last China emperoress is the Manchu not the Han it self. What a shame for great Han people! For centuries they try to conquere some smaller nation and some ethnic group like Hundred Viet in thier expanding. But not all smaller surrender to their brutal but fight back intensively like Vietnam. Some event manage to size the Han Throne itself like Manchu. May be the China right now consist of to many race and so large terriory so thier tiny brain leader can’t stablize it anymore. It should be the time to divide the China to several piece of stable nation. Mqy be it will be better for this world.
davida
i respectfully disagree with u branding china as a big bully. If u are refering to those love-and-hate affairs china had with neighbours before, then first of all, let me remind u that its in the past, and if we all have to rake up old ashes and open up some old wounds, pl educate me about which nation doesnt have some dark past locked up in a vault deep down in a basement. I dont know where u r from but i am damn sure that u will be abhored by ur motherland’ s immoral conduct and unsavory past in an otherwise “glorious” history if u care to spend a couple of hours doing research. I dont intend to patronise u with hysterical rambling like some other people in this blog, but i do wanna share this with u that its no good for someone to be overly obssessed with glitzy and glamor part of his own history, its absolutly wrong to use other’s dark past to justify his own questionable behavior.
But if u are refering to the assertiveness of china’s diplomacy with regard to SCS dispute, and if u r neutral, u would agree that all parties involved are to be blamed for pushing the tension to the boiling point, and i dont understand why almost all international media, especially those in usa and japan lands it squarely on china’s shoulder. If chinese action is not justified, i wonder why they couldnt just lable it, instead of assertivenss, aggressiveness, that way less confused world audience would be more sympthetic towards poor viets and philies whose butts have been kicked repeatedly and relentlessly throughout their history till now with no end in sight.( not all by chinese though)
Of course, its in no one’s interest to start a war over it, but more often than u think is occurence of an arm conflict thats triggered by those war-mongering politicians both domestic and abroad. Then a rational person might ask who would benifit from the devastations wreaked, certainly not chinese, vietnamese or philipinos people. And who is taking a moral high ground while tacitly encouraging asean nations to take a tougher stance against chinese than u would be otherwise?
So there is no doubt why vietnam is willing to lay their butt bare to show all cards they got with live-fire drill and decree of mandatory conscription by their president. In view of that either sheer desperation or show of force and will with tacit backing of someone who is not concerned in anyway in this dispute, i have to agree with chinese assessment that vietnam is playing with fire and risk being burned.
Frank
If you read Chinese history, China never attacked or will attack a friendly neighbor.
China will never tolerate a hostile neighbor for long. Sooner or later, hostile neighbor will become part of China. That was the way China expended.
Vietnam and Korea had been good neighbors of China. That is the reason they survived that long.
Read histories.
Observer
@ Frank – LIAR.
China invaded Vietnam and Korea several times and were beaten back.
That’s how those two countries remain sovereign nations instead with the same fate as Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang.
Why Japan and Russia are still around? What is the matter? LOL
a_canadian_observer
@Frank: What history? The chinese version? That’s a joke. It’s full of fabricated materials. Try to do some real research, then you may earn some respect.
DUC NGUYEN
For 4000 years history, the small Vietnam always defeated the big China invasions.
John Chan
@DUC NGUYEN:
Dream on DUC, you even can dream PLA’s missiles to be malfunction when they start to fire at your direction.
a_canadian_observer
@John Chan: Let me analyze your name for a moment.
I’m assuming that this John Chan is your real name (i.e., this is not a cloak). People with such name are almost certain to be from Hong Kong, of Cantonese ancestry, and you’re NOT of one Han descendents. People from Canton (Guangdong), Guangxi, Yunnan, Hainan… are not Han people. They used belong to the so-called hundreds Viet tribes, and the whole region has been known as Lingnan. This region was conquered, annexed to China and the people were assimilated by the Han Chinese around the Tang dynasty. So, John Chan, you are turning your back against your ancestors. This is not just a great sin, it is a shame when you side with the Han to go against your own Viet people.
ozivan
@a_canadian_observer. We should get back to serious debate.
Blue Dragon
It is your own wish while getting misslies from the US and all of us.
a_canadian_observer
@ozivan: I haven’t seen any serious debate yet, especially from the chinese side. We need to straighten out John Chan, the one who shames his own people first.
Blue Dragon
China got its tail between its legs when kicked out from Vietnam at when Vietnam total population only 1/2 million against 100 million chinese thousands years ago. Now, china’s belligerence attitude should be tamed by Vietnam again, that will given way for allies to cut through Beijing from the Yellow sea; and India breaks its back from the West. In the South, Vietnam will be like a gate of hell, to chop off any chinese moves. Better yet, hold china down to a prolonged war until it begs to get out or china will be broken from inside by from Manchurians, Tibetans, Mongols and all other oppressed natives. china will be destructive by itself. We do not need even use our army to do the job, the guearillas can just destroy and humiliate them for aleast 1/2 century.
Frank
If you read the history, Chinese were never kicked out of Vietnam.
Many Vietnamese kings and officials were actually Chinese.
Actually, there are still many Chinese living in Vietnam.
The so called 1/2 million Vietnamese against 100 millions Chinese are lies.
It was 1/2 million Chinese living in Vietnam. The real Vietnamese were never counted.
Besides, if 100 million Chinese really wanted to attack Vietnam and kill every Vietnamese, there is nothing can stop them.
It was the friendlyness of these “Vietnamese Chinese” that kept Vietnam alive.
Read your history and be grateful to be alive.
a_canadian_observer
@Frank: You poor soul. Such citizen of such nig country, yet still have inferior complex. Sad!
Bonnie
world war two was just as bad as vietnam, the media just didn’t make it known. hudnerds of thousands of people died in Germany in firebombings, that served no purpose other than to KILL. All wars, waged by any country, are all like this.
Frank
How did Vietnam end up becoming a Chinese province for 1000 years?
The only reason that Vietnam got away was because there were not enough Chinese willing to live in Vietnam. Vietnam was considered a bad place to live. And it was too far away from China’s population center.
Now thanks to the new technology and the booms of Southern China, Vietnam is far more fragile than ever.
warmonger
If Vietnam is such a far away and bad place for ancient China to live, why could your ancient China live in some of it’s island event further to the south with no living condition. Basicaly no chance in hell for your ancient have lived there. Stop your nonsense claim and everyone will be happy.
Frank
None of your Vietnamese living there either.
Since Vietnam was part of China, whatever belongs to Vietnam before also belongs to China.
a_canbadian_observer
@Frank: China belongs to Japan, Britain, France, Mongolia, etc…
Manh Hai
Many of us are brainwashed by our governments for the benefit of the political elites. If wars take place, our ordinary people will be sent to the front to kill each other. The elites are exempted from drafting. Nobody should like it!
mareo2
Let’s review a little of the untold history in the USA-PRC diplomatic relationships:
“…The Soviet Union was on the brink of launching a nuclear attack against China in 1969 and only backed down after the US told Moscow such a move would start World War Three, according to a Chinese historian.
Liu Chenshan, the author of a series of articles that chronicle the five times China has faced a nuclear threat since 1949, wrote that the most serious threat came in 1969 at the height of a bitter border dispute between Moscow and Beijing that left more than one thousand people dead on both sides.
He said Soviet diplomats warned Washington of Moscow’s plans “to wipe out the Chinese threat and get rid of this modern adventurer,” with a nuclear strike, asking the US to remain neutral.
But, he says, Washington told Moscow the United States would not stand idly by but launch its own nuclear attack against the Soviet Union if it attacked China, loosing nuclear missiles at 130 Soviet cities. The threat worked, he added, and made Moscow think twice, while forcing the two countries to regulate their border dispute at the negotiating table…”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/7720461/USSR-planned-nuclear-attack-on-China-in-1969.html
That after the bloody Korean war. Now I can understand the pictures of Nixon walking in the Great Wall and meeting Mao. Looking to how the CCP refuse to even sit and negotiate rules of interaction at sea with the USA unlike the USSR, I wonder why americans dont remained neutral and let the USSR and the PRC destroyed each other. Because it seems to me that the CCP have memory only for the bad things.
John Chan
@mareo2:
USA is a predicatory imperialist; it does not do anything that cannot benefit itself. USA will sell anybody if it can make a profit. mareo2 if your nation is not careful your nation will be the next one to be sold, the buyer may be China.
USSR was a poor country; USA wanted to borrow money from China, that’s why USA must stop USSR from harming his banker. Do you get it now?
USA is the one does not recognize UNCLOS not China; USA does not respect any nation’s sea rights. mareo2 you got it all wrong, it is USA does not sit down with anybody to discuss rules of sea.
Reason
@John Chan
Of the signatures of UNCLOS 160 agree with the US on military overflight and passage… which includes all the major historical maritime nations
21 countries disagree. including the likes of Chile, Iran, North Korea and of course China. It is the China Consensus that is in the minority when it comes to UNCLOS and it’s interpretation.
as for this quote – “USA wanted to borrow money from China” in 1969??? you’re a little confused.
Johny Pusong
China is the ONE intimidating its neighbors and ONE of the signatories of how to behave in the area, but they are the FIRST ONES to behave differently. SO stop your communist propaganda lies. They are only claiming the Spratly islands in the recent years becuase of two things: OIL and GAS. Claiming the islands with a so called “ancient map” is BOGUS and THE COMMUNIST lies to their teeth and they know it. We live in the 21st century for crying out loud, and that claim doesn’t hold any water.