By David Axe
Tokyo seems poised to spend billions developing the country’s first homegrown stealth warplane. But is the Shinshin really meant for military service?
It’s an arms race Beijing claims it doesn’t want, Russia can’t afford, the United States believes it can’t afford and Japan probably isn’t prepared for on its own.
All the same, the intensifying competition to build radar-evading jet fighters has had a powerful effect on the politics, industry and military forces of the Pacific's four greatest powers – and none more so than Japan’s.
The most recent chapter in a tale that began in 2005 opened with a grainy photograph of a black-painted warplane, published on an Internet forum six months ago. On Christmas Day, Chinese government Internet censors allowed the first amateur photo of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s new J-20 stealth-fighter demonstrator to linger online.
The J-20, a product of the Chengdu design bureau, is a visually impressive aircraft, substantially bigger than Western warplanes such as the F-15 and F/A-18 and adorned with sharp angles meant to reduce its radar reflectivity. Such angles are also seen on the latest US F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters, both built by Lockheed Martin, plus on the Sukhoi T-50 from Russia.
More photos and videos of the J-20 soon followed. But Beijing remained silent about the new plane’s purpose and capability. Foreign analysts, meanwhile, worked themselves into something of a panic.
‘Any notion that an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter or F/A-18E/F Super Hornet will be capable of competing against this Chengdu design in air combat, let alone penetrate airspace defended by this fighter, would be simply absurd,’ wrote Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon, from the think tank Air Power Australia.
If the PLAAF masters engines to match the J-20’s airframe, ‘Asian Pacific’s political landscape will be changed,’ claimed Arthur Ding, a Taiwanese analyst.
Finally, a Chinese official opened up about the J-20. It was in late May, at a press conference during PLA chief Gen. Chen Bingde’s weeklong visit to Washington, D.C. ‘We do not want to use our money to buy equipment or advanced weapons to challenge the United States,’ Chen said in response to a question about the J-20.
There was a ‘gaping gap’ between US and Chinese technology, the general admitted.
But it was too late for Chen to stop an arms race. The J-20’s appearance had already prompted the United States and its closest Pacific ally, Japan, to accelerate the modernization of their own air arsenals. Russia, cash-strapped as always, doggedly plugged away at a planned decade-long test programme using two T-50 prototypes.
Despite a ballooning federal budget deficit and flattening defence spending, Washington shifted billions of dollars into efforts to improve its fleet of F-15 Eagle and F-22 Raptor fighters, while also reaffirming its commitment to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, the total cost of which was projected to exceed $1 trillion.
Tokyo’s reaction to the J-20 was arguably even more dramatic. In a surprise move for a country that carefully avoids military confrontation, Japan revived a plan to develop its own stealth warplane – from scratch.
Today, the so-called Shinshin (‘spirit’) fighter – the product of the Advanced Technology Demonstrator, or ‘ATD-X,’ programme – exists only as a small-scale, radio-controlled model, two non-flying mock-ups and various isolated bits of technology including engines, electronics and the canopy. But plans are in place to fly a fully-functioning demonstrator no later than 2014.
What happens after that is open to speculation. Sometime after 2016, a derivative of the Shinshin could join the F-22, the F-35, the T-50 and potentially the J-20 as combat-ready stealth warplanes in widespread military use.
More likely, Tokyo will continue using Shinshin for its original purpose, as a sacrificial player in a complex political, military and industrial game, the ultimate goal of which is to win Japan a stake in a more affordable (for Japan) and potentially more effective US stealth fighter.
Either way, the J-20’s appearance has raised the stakes for Tokyo and the Japanese air force. Tokyo is facing a shortage of combat-ready fighters, a problem the Chinese warplane’s appearance underscored in dramatic fashion.
The question is whether Japan will design and build new fighters on its own, despite the high cost and extreme risk of such an endeavour – or continue relying on the Americans to supply its warplanes, a strategy that comes with its own political and industrial costs.
Photo Credit: Japan Defence Ministry
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Matt
I cannot see the Japanese buying into the F-35, (in fact when told the need 150, they balked) even though they are not signed on they are being blackmailed like the rest of us, the Indians have money, but are not stupid, the ROK are doing their own thing.
When the US can no longer afford them unit cost number procured that is when the fun starts. And it is getting up there. See during peace time the contractors could get away with this sort of extortion, there was always money. Now not so much. As long as they know that there are limit options the price will continue to rise.
But there are options first we cancel the program, the foreign partner cannot support it, like the EFV the contractor will come back to us with an offer, we perhaps tell them to destroy the tooling. And make a counter offer. If a deal is done a deal is done.
Putting 25 for the Australian (PRC), 25 for Israel (Iran) and for the UK carrier fleet (US/UK coalition operations) into the US deal probably 1500 units for the US with the UK/AUS/IAF on top of that, for 90 million each. Which will upset the other foreign partners that are left out.
If not fixed wing rotary aircraft for the Marines LHD’s to bash the savages, reopen the F-22 production for a certain procurement, it has become fiscally viable, buy more super hornets for the carriers and deploy a larger number of carrier based UAV’s. And then go straight for 6 gen unmanned fighters.
No one is locked in on numbers to be procured, the numbers stated are from when people originally signed on or showed interest, at those prices. The price have gone up it has come to the stage that in each region the aircraft was to be sold that the total procurement number are close to what a single nation was going procure. Example Japan need around 150, but they can only afford between 25 to 50 at the current increasing costs. Australia need 150, due to cost signed on 100, but will only be able to afford 65, Singapore the same.
So instead of 500 to 600 in that region there may be 150, the number one country required. All this pushes the price up which puts pressure on the US procurements which is support the whole program, their number go down from 2400 to perhaps 1800 which further pushes the price up. And that is how it gets canceled.
And the whole point was for an aircraft that would operate in coalition operations to lift the burden off the US. Those cost are not factored in, instead of the US deploying 1000 5th generation around 500 with another 500 made up of the coalition.
WarLord
We might as well be discussing steam powered dirigibles for all the relevance to next gen war.
Look to Libya to see how effective projecting force through modern air power is actually working. Or perhaps Astan to see the future asymmetrical warfare writ large. The arms dealers love the arms race but the reality of unfunded wars and massive deficit in a tax cutting political landscape means the open checkbook for new high tech toys is at an end.
Of course if you think the FoxConns of China will allow war while selling us crap and buying T-bills with the profits….
guest
Japan needs to have an indigenous military industry independent of US influence. That increases the value of Japan in the eyes of Washington. Dependency on American goodwill is a short road to being sold down the river.
Sinodefender
Last time Japan had a military they ravaged Asia I for one won’t stand Japanese whitewashing Nanjing… Hope another Yue fei or Guan yu is born to punish the Japanese.
johny pusong
Don’t worry. China is playing the role of former Japanese empire prior to WWII.
FB
The only way Japan can ensure its security is by negotiating with the Chineese on territories which are in dispute.
Also, it is about time the Japanese Goverment inform the US to leave the country. That way China or Russia would feel secure and not be compelled to attack Japan in the event of a conflict.
Right, that’s exactly how it works. Negotiations from weakness ensure security, and not having alliances will protect you from attack. Brilliant.
Freddy
Really! Just why China and Russia are constantly feeling insecure is still the bewilderment of the century. It was the Soviet Union that, under the guise of ‘liberation’, expelled the Nazi army, only to impose communist occupation to all the former Eastern European nations. As soon as the Soviet Union collapsed, these countries couldn’t wait to run for the West. It was China that, with the US dropping the atom bombs and defeated Japan, finally felt free from foreign domination. China repaid that debt by sending a million troop across the Yalu River to slaughter Americans in the Korean War. A thief is always afraid of the cop, should we say?
John Chan
@FB:
What makes you think Japan is weak? Japan is the third largest economy in the world, Japan has most advanced and powerful war machinery in the Asia, and Japanese is the most efficient killing machine in the world. Only 60 years ago Japanese were more brutal and feared than the Nazi Germans.
Tom Tran
Yes exactly, but that WAS 60 years ago. Loo at Japan vs China now. And you missed something more important than that. Chinese communist party and its puppet regimes in Vietnam, Cambodia’s Polpot, Kim dynasty had killed many millions and IS killing millions in their own countries.