Its current row with Vietnam in the South China Sea has alarmed many observers. But a similar spat with Japan shows that conflict isn’t inevitable.
The past year has been a difficult one for the coastal states of the South China Sea and there are number of indications that China’s decade long restraint is at an end. In 2010, rumours abounded that Beijing considered the South China Sea a ‘core interest,’ and China symbolically planted a flag on the seafloor (apparently mimicking Russian grandstanding in the Arctic). Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi’s hysterical response to US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton’s restatement of US policy towards the dispute, meanwhile, seemed to be overkill.
The first half of 2011 has been similar. Chinese vessels, both civilian and government, have interfered with Philippine and Vietnamese survey activities in disputed waters, and Chinese vessels continue to fire at rival fishermen. This behaviour seems to confirm long-held suspicions about China’s posture towards the South China Sea; that as soon as China developed the military capability to dominate the South China Sea, it would. Now, following live fire exercises by Vietnam and as calls for greater military modernization grow in the Philippines, conflict in the South China Sea seems imminent.
However, we’ve seen this Chinese behaviour before, in the East China Sea, where China and Japan dispute the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and the sea waters that surround them. Importantly, the escalation of tension in that dispute resulted in cooperation, not conflict. The dispute over energy resources began in earnest in 2004 after Japan discovered a Chinese drilling platform at the Chunxiao gas field, within 200 nautical miles of Japan’s coast, but just outside the median line that marked the limit of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone claim in its domestic law.
When it became apparent that commercially viable resources existed at Chunxiao, Tokyo insisted Beijing cease operations and jointly develop the field with Japan. To ascertain the extent of the undersea resources, Tokyo commissioned the Norwegian flagged Ramform Victory to conduct a thorough survey of the median line area near the Chunxiao field. During this survey, the Ramform Victory was stalked on several occasions by Chinese naval vessels and confronted on one occasion by a military vessel disguised as a research ship. Furthermore, in September 2005 a highly advanced Sovremennyy destroyer targeted a P3-C Orion patrol plane that passed over the Chunxiao field. As a consequence of these events, Japan galvanized its efforts to access resources in the East China Sea. Aerial patrols of the area increased and Tokyo backed away from its median line claim in favour of a full 200 nautical miles, awarded concession blocks adjacent to the median line to Teikoku Oil, and set about passing the laws required to protect Japanese oil companies working in the East China Sea.
Predictably, this resulted in histrionics from Beijing. Somewhat surprising however, was that as Japan set about preparing to drill for gas in the disputed area, negotiations between the two began to bear fruit. After the Diet passed the Law on Establishing Safety Areas for Maritime Structures in April 2007 – which permitted Japan to outline safety zones around drilling installations and tasked the coast guard with expelling vessels that violated these zones – negotiations occurred more frequently and yielded tangible results. Finally, in June 2008 the two sides announced a joint development arrangement that spelled out the sharing of resources at Chunxiao and outlined a joint development zone to the north that straddled the median line.
Photo Credit: US Defence Department
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miki
seems to me the whitemen are hell bound on creating warmongering in asia. it would benefit their makers of killing machines greatly! Divide and rule? what better than creating hatreds against the Chinese after all those little countries have a long history of discrimination against the Chinese populations, remember the 70s 80s when the Vietcong carried out ethnic cleansing, all the Chinese in the country got wiped out! The Philipines force all the Chinese to adopt their so called native surnames!
Cyrus
@Miki where in the hell did you get that idea for God’s sake? First of all the one who implemented the surname’s are the Spanish Filipino’s also has just a single name by then an they are all the same for example if there is a Juan there would be a lot of Juan from North to South. So in order for the Spanish to make it easier to know which Juan they are referring to they decreed that Filipinos adopt Spanish Surnames of course intermarriages also contributed that is why we have families with Filipino-Spanish bloodline, Filipino-Chinese, Filipino-American, Filipino-African and just about any combination you could think about.
See that is because Filipino does not usually discriminate that is why we have so many combinations and we don’t really have a solid identity for us to make a “China Town” we just adapt to where we are. So I would suggest that you read your History first and then comment. BTW, Chinese are resilient they were merely labor hands when they arrived in the Philippines but look at them now? One of the richest Person in the Philippines started as a shoe cleaner Julio Sy and is now the richest if not the richest in the Philippines.
ozivan
@miki. I don’t know where you got your history. Philippines,Thailand,Burma, even Vietnam are not known to have mistreated the Chinese. Rather, the Chinese are often better off economically.
For those Chinese that don’t do well in these countries, the indigenous locals are in the same situation.
Official records showed that only in Indonesia and Malaysia that they have killed many Chinese in racial riots.
Cyrus
The Philippines need not really sweat regarding China. Since we had a commitment from Hilary Clinton that the United States would Honor the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty.
Would be great to have finally an assurance, I just hope the Philippine would upgrade it’s capabilities of external defense since most of its equipment are from either WWII or Vietnam War Era.
ozivan
@Cyrus. That’s a good stance and attitude that you have taken. The US will certainly come to Manila’s assistance under the 1951 MDT if China or any country were to attack mainland Philippines or sea zones within 12 miles from its coast. But this will not happen. Where tiny islands are in the 200 EEZ and claimants are aplenty, the US would use diplomacy.
Cyrus. May I digress to another subject on your country. Philippines is located in a natural disasters zone, often hit by typhoons, volcanic eruptions, etc.
Australians could hardly remember any major natural disaster in their country until typhoon Yasi hit Northern Australia in early 2011. Large swathes of territory larger than the whole of Luzon island were inundated with water up to rooftops. There were so much destruction to us. The Fukushima tsunami, West Sumatran tsunami, the extensive floods in Pakistan in 2010, Christchurch earthquakes are all examples before us.
China is not spared from floods and especially earthquakes. But what comes out differently for Australia, China, Japan & New Zealand is that these nations today are economically strong enough to pick up quickly and restart. Without intention to belittle any; Pakistan, Indonesia, Haiti have literally to go begging for help financially.
Philippines may one day be hit by a never dreamed of enormous natural disaster. So we need friends when the need arise.
President B. Aquino should concentrate on developing a strong economy quickly through working co-operatively with China for billions in aid/investments which is a quicker way rather than hope to get wishful billions from the oil and gas deposits in the SCS which still have unsettled disputes. The US and Japan are financially strapped at the moment.
I may not be able to coummunicate direct to convince your President. But I hope I can with you. China & Philippines historically have never been enemies unlike Japan & Vietnam. Don’t fall for warmongering by anti-China bloggers.
Observer
@ ozivan – you said “China & Philippines historically have never been enemies unlike Japan & Vietnam.”
It is China that invaded and enslaved Vietnam over and over for several thousands years. Vietnam never invaded China.
Get your history lesson straight.
ozivan
@Observer. Please read the sentence again carefully.
I said…. China & Philippines historically have never been enemies. I didn’t mean Japan & Vietnam have never been enemies of China.
Cyrus. Can you help clarify whether this what I meant ?
Observer. Dislike as much as you want about China (it’s your free choice) but don’t be blinded by rage.
Cyrus
I would have to agree with this one. The racial riots are just an example and China only said that Vietnam and Chinese are enemy. Not particularly in war though, remember Cambodia China and Vietnam was fighting diplomatically, only that the Military Junta now is a Vietnamese Victory.
Yes Philippines have always been a peaceful neighbor we never flexed our Military before, even when we were one of the strongest in the region and we always deploy peace keepers whenever the UN asked for it.
The only thing I have a problem with China Ozivan at the moment is that it is now saying Reed Bank is part of it’s territory. Never before has the Reed Bank been a contested Territory this is the first time it happened since Communist China was created. So Makes the Philippines Jittery of China, where to run then? Of course the only recourse is to go to the United States are former colonizer and long time ally.
I agree though that Economic Development is very important especially for the Philippines being a 3rd World State. So is National Defense and Sovereignty, how can we still have a face in the International Community if we let ourselves be bullied. All I’m saying is we need to upgrade our External Defense to at least a somewhat respectable level.
Cyrus
Yes, we could turn to China it was started during the Presidency of Arroyo. Right now we had a conflict in both Reed Bank and the Spratly with China. Reed bank was never a contested territory before only in 2011 has the Reed Bank become a disputed territory.
Now the most logical choice would be to turn to the United States, why?
The United States has interest in the Region particularly the sea routes. Secondly, it aims to control the expansion of China so that its Navy Cannot be a threat to the United States. Ergo, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and Philippines who would serve as a shield to the United States if a war with China would break out. The United States might be having problems economically but it is still the undisputed Hegemon in the world, Chinese military is still far from catching up to that of the United States.
Also it is a matter of sovereignty that is why the Philippines wants to built up its external defense. We have for so long left our External Defense capabilities rot. We have decommissioned our Fighter Jet’s and has failed to make sure we acquired new one’s before ours become too old. Our Naval Expansion halted look at our Flag Ship acquired in 1970’s and is the oldest running Frigate in history. We need to badly improve our capabilities really, even our Rifles are still M16A1 prone to hang when firing. I should know experienced it while firing, my point is the Military has been in tatters it needs a boost and China only magnified the importance of it. :)
ozivan
@Cyrus. I share and accept your views. I have strong empathy for Filipinos, particularly their peaceful nature. Thank you for the opportunity to have engaged in discussion with you. Most of all, I wish Philippines well.
On SCS disputes. Possibly, the islands overlappingly sit on a large oil basin. When oil is drawn from underneath, the oil comes from a common source. It’s like they all own the water well and they are drawing the water from the same well.
I suspect (my guess) the Chinese wants to participate in joint development with Vietnam without outside oil companies getting involved. Then the Philippines started their exploration with US oil companies’ encouragement. In the past, China have been playing the delaying game for awhile because for many years the Chinese do not have the technology, high seas drilling rigs and money to develop the resources in the SCS. But now they can with their wealth. They have also just completed the construction of one of the world’s 20 largest oil rigs. Took them 3 years to construct.
However, some claimants feels that the choice of their joint venture partners is their sovereign right and they needn’t require China’s approval. I believe there are certain stands/core interest that China cannot say openly without incurring protests from international oil companies. And oil companies’ interest always coincide with the core interest of their respective countries.
Using bilateral strategy, China only needs to successfully negotiate with one of the claimants to jointly survey, drill and share the oil which then hopefully the disputes
would be easier to resolve, especially if some of the other claimants also jump into the bandwagon.
I believe the international oil companies are also playing their own games behind the scenes (with their Governments) in order to get a major part of the contracts. Is the US using Philippines to push their agenda ? I don’t really know.
It may seem farfetch but my gut feelings (my guess again) tell me that the first oil joint venture in the SCS would most likely be between China & Vietnam within a decade.
I must emphasise that the above are my guesses only. It is a subject out for debate.
Bloggers are welcome to disagree as much as they wish since this is only a scenario.
Observer
@ ozivan – you said “Observer. Dislike as much as you want about China (it’s your free choice) but don’t be blinded by rage.”
All of that from my statements of “It is China that invaded and enslaved Vietnam over and over for several thousands years. Vietnam never invaded China.”? Are my statements about China as invaders true or not? YES or NO.
Where in my statement that I said anything about dislike China? Where in my statements that implied rage as you say? Point them out for the readers.
Cyrus
Yes, China needs to give a better offer than the other oil companies. I understand why China needs them, it is to become Independent from a volatile Middle East Oil.
Though it needs not resort to Military Flexing it would only lead to conflict and as you could see now tensions are high and China still will not get the survey right. Philippines and Vietnam is leaning back to US Hegemony, China made a bad move diplomatically by flexing its muscle while it keeps on reassuring the Philippines that it has peaceful intentions.
Cyrus
@ozivan of course the US is doing this for its own self interest. I think though it is not as much as economic rather than military. As you can see the US is trying to isolate China and keep China from expanding, it is evident in its key allies surrounding China. Actually China also helped put itself in this situation by picking a fight in the SEA wherein it is already surrounded in the Pacific by Japan and Taiwan. Now it will be surrounded by the Philippines and Taiwan, I know that the US will benefit from this one as it assuages its defense with a group of allied countries encircling China and it would allow the US to have more leverage against China.