With US attention focused on the Arab World and Pakistan, will Kim Jong-il spring another attention seeking nuclear surprise?
Things looked so positive at the start of this year. After the drama of 2010 on the Korean Peninsula, including the sinking of the South Korean warship the Cheonan and North Korea’s shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, there appeared to be a thaw in bilateral ties. Having originally insisted on a formal North Korean apology as a precondition for resuming the Six Party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programme, the South Korean government eventually relented and tacitly acknowledged that it would return to the talks without such an admission.
Meanwhile, North Korea eased up on some of its more bellicose posturing, apparently recognizing that its southern neighbour would – and indeed could – not respond so lightly in the event of any further military exchanges. Pyongyang even seemed to be offering an olive branch to Seoul by offering to hold bilateral discussions and indicating its willingness to return to the Six Party talks.
Yet despite these cosmetic moves, the reality is that the relationship is continuing its descent to new lows.
To most policymakers and analysts, North Korea’s cycle of intransigence is nothing new, with Pyongyang continuing to follow its well-trodden ‘bully-turned-victim’ foreign policy. Time and time again we’ve seen agreements broken by Kim Jong-il’s regime. As far back as the autumn of 1994, US diplomats under the Clinton administration returned to Washington with Chamberlain-esque illusions that North Korea was willing to eliminate its nuclear programme. The grand bargain was called the Agreed Framework, and it declared that Pyongyang would freeze and then destroy its nuclear weapons programme in exchange for much needed fuel and political ‘normalization’ with the West.
Yet history has betrayed the work of this declaration’s architects. The North Koreans claimed that the United States was insincere in fulfilling its obligations under the agreement – especially regarding political normalization – and argued the US continued to threaten the regime’s existential security. Relations continued to worsen with the North’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty in 2003, and reached its nadir with subsequent nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
Fast forward a little to today, and the North Korean regime still seems fixated on how to get the attention of the United States and South Korea. With the US currently fixated on developments in the Middle East and North Africa, the military establishment in North Korea is getting impatient and unpredictable. Combine this with uncertainty over the machinations within the Kim regime concerning the succession – and the expected ascension to power of Kim’s youngest son, Kim Jong-un – and the danger becomes clear.
What does history teach us to expect? Previous North Korean behaviour suggests we should be prepared for more bad behaviour. Indeed, there are signs that this might already be underway. Won Sei-hoon, head of South Korea’s intelligence service, recently reported to key national legislative representatives that North Korea appears likely to conduct a third nuclear weapons test out of frustration over the stalled Six Party talks.
Won indicated that he believes ‘North Korea will use military action such as nuclear and missile (tests) to turn the tables if its current tack of dialogue fails.’ And while there’s so far no concrete intelligence showing a test is imminent, there have been reports that the North Korean military has been excavating new tunnels around previous test sites. This news follows North Korea’s latest ‘surprise’ over its nuclear programme when, last November, it revealed to a respected Western scientist that it had constructed a 2,000-centrifuge uranium enrichment facility, prompting fears that Pyongyang was attempting to master a second path to nuclear weapons (its previous tests were with plutonium devices).
Photo Credit: Uniphoto Press
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S P Dudley
Sadly by pursuing nuclear weapons in such a hell-bent fashion the Kim regime has encompassed its own doom, and that of the 20 million people living under their hypnotic, iron-fisted control. Given that in the desperate need for cash he has already sold just about every type of contraband on the black market (including weapons, drugs, counterfeit money, etc.) sooner or later Kim will try to sell one of his homebrew nukes.
There is no possibly way we can tolerate that, as the likely target of such a weapon will be the USA or one of our key allies. Should that ever happen, we will be required to take terrible and immediate action. We can hope for the best that somehow the Kim regime disintegrates peacefully but I wouldn’t count on it and it’s best to start preparing for the worst here.
Kimpo
South Korea shall stand strong against the proxies of mainlanders. John chan is blind if he thinks that supporting North will help people. People of North are under thumb of mainlanders and have to work in mines and prison camps. South Korea is an rich, prosper and successful nation just like Taiwan. However robbers want to plunder our wealth by guns and missiles. We shall take decisive action.
Leonard R.
South Korea has gotten rich, courtesy of America.
Why are we defending these people? So they can get richer?
Are they paying us? Why aren’t they paying us?
And any attack on the US by Pyongyang should be viewed as an attack by Beijing.
The United States should retaliate against both.
John
In a discussion I had with a long term resident in Korea, I learnt that the Korean Govt pays approx $650 million a year to retain US troops in its country.
When you consider that for ten years they paid the NK’s $500 million a year and still had to put up with a sinking of thier ship (if it wasn’t them then maybe we should look at thier neighbor to the north/west) and an attack against a populated island.
I am not suprised that they decided to stop spending money on NK and just use the money else where.
By the way, @ John Chan its the Govt who are not wanting to spend any more money on the NK Govt. The SK citizens still send money to NK people, wish to educate them to NK Govts mistakes and the ex NK Korean refugees are still wanting to remove the NK Govt.
If China cared about NK as much as you say then maybe they could accept them as refugees and not return them to NK just so they can be placed in NK concentration/prison camps. Maybe even accept the refugee convention that is created by the UN.
Just a thought and observation.
seouldout
Most of that money pays the salaries of S. Korean workers on US bases, i.e., it stays home and in Korean pockets. The US brings a multi-billion dollar capability to the table – there’s a US aircraft carrier dedicated to S. Korea’s defense. S. Korea has almost non-existent effective battlefield comms – only generals get satellite support. It still flies F4s. It doesn’t have a 4×4 that can handle the rice paddies when soaked. A rescue diver died because ROKN didn’t have a decompression chamber in the area. S. Korea may do the heavy lifting by putting a large number of conscripted boots in the battlefield, but S. Korea utterly relies on the US to bring the smarts.
Korea would rather spend the money on little-used world cup stadiums and bullet trains.
kordicb
it flies phantoms ‘cos they are is still god US planes and NK WONT get any better ever(what they have is glued to the ground lacking spare parts and due to poor maintenance)even mig 29’s are inferior and old(avionics,weapons,…)to upgraded f-4’s as ground rollers.The South Korean Air Force has been quite satisfied with the F-4 and has carried out upgrades to extend their lifespan. A proposal made by DASA was evaluated that would have included installation of the APG-66 radar and AMRAAM missiles. This was equivalent to the Japanese F-4EJ KAI or German F-4 ICE, but the costs were too high for South Korea. The Air Force had already been forced to cancel an order for F-18s, which had been the winner of their new fighter competition and instead bought F-16s.
Despite the financial constraints, several minor upgrades were made to allow South Korean F-4s to continue in their role against North Korea. Some F-4s were upgraded with the AN/AVQ-26 Pave Tack laser targeting pod. 30 F-4Es were equipped with the AGM-142 “Popeye” stand-off anti-shipping missile; a modern Israeli weapon also purchased by the USAF,[47] Royal Australian Air Force and the Turkish Air Force.now…F-15K Slam Eagle(60) and over 140 F-16 are purchased(some made in SK with bought license) from US by almost full price!let’s not talk ’bout F-5 and their own projects t-50,tank XK2… that is all paid from SK pockets!U.S still sponsoring only Israel these days (1.5 billion per year.nothing is for free anymore!!!South Korean KF-X future fighter program is financed by Koreans too.by the way Iam Serbian and sorry for my English
John L. Yoon
South Korean population is 49 Million not 80 Million like I mentioned,
the worldwide Korean population is around 81 Million.
John L. Yoon
North Korea is a thorn to all Koreans living on this Earth. Its very presence damages the reputation of the Korean People and overshadows the wealth and influence Koreans in South Korea and other nations have achieved through their sufferings.
There is no good solution regarding North Korea.
-The world can agree to demands triggering an endless vicious cycle
-The world can engage North Korea, which is very bad idea considering that South Korea is among the world’s largest economies with over 80 Million people packed into its small confines.
-The world can let North Korea starve and rot away in isolation. This opens up a window of hope about regime change but risks shattering all remaining bonds between the Korean people in the North and South.
North Korea is already a generation behind South Korea in societal changes, technology and lifestyle. If the North Koreans were to find out that their South Korean brothers had “abandoned them”, the results would be disastrous.
Johnny
@Yoon “The world can let North Korea starve and rot away in isolation.”
Thats the most passive solution but the ‘puppeteer’ is the real problem here not the puppet. N.Korea’s string are being pulled by another country and if that is removed N.Korea will not be able to sustain itself for long. In my humble opinion, real solution is cutting the strings instead of punching the puppet.
John Chan
Although North Korea is poor and weak, at least it is independent and free of foreign occupation. It is a disgrace that a wealthy South Korea is not independent and under foreign occupation. It is the time for SK to take up the guts; shows NK that it can match NK’s independent spirit; ask the US to leave SK; and let the Koreans to decide their own fate.
Yes, SK has more apparent freedom, but they are polluted by the US greedy and consumption culture; they rather buying unnecessary gadgets for themselves instead of helping their poor cousins in the North to have a decent life as China did for Taiwan. Where is SK’s conscious? They rather see their cousins in the North getting help from a stranger instead of helping their blood relatives themselves.
It’s time for the SK to resume the sunshine policy and help their north relatives, instead of being a lackey of the US and maintain cold war hostility for the US in Korean peninsula.
PeterDownUnder
So are all countries that host US bases all under foreign occupation and subservient?
Many countries want them there and keep them there because who wouldn’t want a country that spends more on its military than most countries entire GDP annually protecting them.
The purpose of the US bases in South Korea are more strategic than functional.
In case of war, the 30,000+ US soldiers would be dead instantly from artillery and missiles.
That is their purpose to be a trip wire, saying you attack South Korea, you’ll kill 30,000 US soldiers there by taking on the might of the entire US military.
Pretty much the US has placed a Pearl Harbour in enemy territory saying “Come at us if you want”.
People like you John Chan are so despicable and give nothing but a picture of a brainwashed Chinese communist that troll the web. I have many Chinese friends and you just give Chinese people on the mainland such a bad image. I doubt you are even a person and possibly just some Chinese program that spills out propaganda. I’ve read your posts dirty the intellectual level of this fine blog to level of cheap trolling.
Regards to your above comment. What?! China did WHAT? for taiwans prosperity? WHat?!
Also we’ve seen 10 years of Sunshine policy. North Korea would have collapsed and unification would have happened 20 years ago now soon after the death of its founder.
Now after 10 years of generous support, we have a nuclear armed North Korea that got a taste for extortion. China is supporting this regime for one reason only. To annoy the US and its allies. Don’t praise the sunshine policy. We’ve seen it done for 10 years. All it did is strengthen the enemy. The enemy is the regime and the victims are only the people that know nothing. With then end of the Cold War, North Korea should have gone with the Soviet Union. But the sunshine policy just propped them up.
Imagine the US instead of letting the Soviet Union fall, engaged it and started giving it generous aid to prop it back up. That’s what your asking. The two nations constitutions cancel one another out. These two states were made to destroy the other and unify the people. Sunshine is a failure.
You don’t feed a dog that bites you so that it doesn’t bite you anymore. It’ll only start biting again the next time it gets angry. You either hit it with a stick till it learns its lesson or kill it for a dog that bites the hand that feeds it is useless.
Till the day the Diplomat cannot be read in China again because your government doesn’t want people like you defaming the image of China.
Johnny
@Peter Very well written comment. You have my respect!
PS:
“Till the day the Diplomat cannot be read in China again because your government doesn’t want people like you defaming the image of China.”
This is something I didn’t knew for sure. Are we talking about Washington Diplomat or the-diplomat.com ?
John Chan
@PeterDownUnder, if your nation doesn’t see hosting foreign troops as occupation and subservient, why doesn’t your nation let PLA station in your nation? Why should your nation refuse PLA and in favour of the US, it is discrimination. PLA would give your nation just as good protection as the US, it is a good deal for your nation, your nation gets double protection while keeping PLA and the US troop in check with each other.
PLA will guarantee that the US troop cannot rape at will then get send back to the US for trail. By letting PLA station your nation, nobody needs to spread that toxic fabricated fear mongering “China Threat” anymore.
After the collapse of USSR, USA did go to those former USSR nations with money to rip them off in the name of aids and business cooperation. USA is a financial egoism capitalist, they are not in the business of charity, you are totally brainwashed by the western imperialism and became a mouthpiece for the neocon who berates anybody who brings new hope to the humanity.
It seems you have no knowledge on how the US, and the European mistreated and lectured SK and other Asian nations in the 1997 Asian financial crisis; IMF and World Bank force fed SK and Asian nations with bitter and poisonous austerity programs that caused immeasurable suffering to SK and Asians, without China stood up for the Asians, I just wondered where would be the comfortable life the Asians are enjoying right now, yet all those Asian US lackeys have forgotten the contribution China has made for their recovery, now all of them side with the US ganging up against China, what an ungrateful bunch.
I protest on behalf of NK that you called them dogs.
Please give me a break; my comment was merely pleading help on behalf of NK, yet you derailed the argument into a full-scale anti-China bigotry troll, and made no meaningful contribute to the discussion here.
It seems PeterIndia is more appropriate to your mean spirited writing instead of PeterDownUnder. Indian’s consistently cursing other nations to go under is disgusting.
John L. Yoon
John,
I can firmly say as a Korean that while the nostalgia for a United Korea is still strong in South Korea, the modern generations of South Koreans are much more pragmatic to their approach towards North Korea
North Korea has abused the sunshine policy by receiving all they could and then acted in the hostile manner they always do. South Korea under President Lee Myung Bak is telling the North Koreans that there will no more free rides even if they are one people. At this stage, South Korea can return to the vicious cycle of the Sunshine policy or they can show their independent spirit and guts by sticking with a firm stance on this North Korean issue. Of course the riot in Beijing when the Ipad 2 came out, it was a true demonstration of the “pure” Chinese socialist path.
@Johnny, as long as China is propping up North Korea, we can be certain that whatever gestures they show, they’re democracy hating communists at heart
Johnny
@Yoon That is the grim truth, mate. Sometimes I wonder though how China will react if USA armed Taiwan with an large enough nuclear stockpile? Will they follow what they preach i.e. will they provide aid to Taiwan then?
John
John Chan wrote: “It is a disgrace that a wealthy South Korea is not independent and under foreign occupation. It is the time for SK to take up the guts; shows NK that it can match NK’s independent spirit; ask the US to leave SK; and let the Koreans to decide their own fate.”
John Chan, you have previously shown yourself to be ignorant of Korea and anything to do with the country or maybe you are just hoping to regain a vassal status with them.
North Korea lost the Korean war. China fought the war after NKs defeat. South Korea is an independent nation and has US troops as support, not as an occupying force. If you don’t think this is true then ask why South Korea goes further north than the 38th parallel and who was responsible for it. It wasn’t the US who took that territory from the Chinese.
The South Koreans are already deciding thier own fate and if the current Chinese government wasn’t acting aggressively against South Korea or still supporting North Koreas nuclear weapons program, then there would be no need for US troops in South Korea.
I honestly feel that you are ignorant about many issues outside of mainland China and a person should not argue with a fool, but I can’t accept you making false statements about something that you have already shown yourself to be completely ignorant about.
If you had learnt anything new since our last discussion then you would not be repeating rubbish.
Personally, I feel that John Chan is at best a high school student in terms of understanding certain issues outside of China, so “don’t feed the troll”. By the way, there has been a better analysis of China’s history made by others than what you normally purport to understand, so study more John Chan.
I have learnt to re-look at certain issues due to your arguments, but it seems that you regurgitate crap and call it truth. Just be glad that I am not South Korean or I would really educate you about South Koreas’ strenghts.
John Chan
@John, to the people from a nation of “honey words and pious gesture” that play wedge politics in their blood, as well as maintain a caste system that abuse human beings by birth in the 21st century, they will not understand compassion and forgiveness. The bloggers from that nation never can put out objective and persuasive arguments to win discussions, the only thing they know is sowing discords, calling names and trash bloggers with opinions contrary to theirs with personal underhand troll just like you did in the above comment.
My comment merely pleads Skoreans to help on behalf of Nkoreans, I believe blood is thicker than water, the Skoreans would help. The comment has nothing to do with China, anti-China clique like you do not have to derail the humanitarian deed that Chinese bloggers are trying to do to help the Koreans
Buja Thane
@John Chan
South Korea had try to help, but North Korea does not want to accept help from any country that are in tie with the US. These “strangers” that are helping NK are probably people who have connections with the US but doesn’t care since they think they will benefit either way. As for the US being greedy and a consumption culture, isn’t that everyone in the world? Don’t say it as if you are the only person in the world who doesn’t want to rise all the way to the top of the chart.
John Chan
@Johnny, we are discussing humanitarian assistance to NK from SK, yet you derail the discussion into nuclear holocaust for the humanity. China won’t behave like the US who wanted to blow the world up when USSR placed nuclear missiles in her backyard, Cuba; nor China will behave like India who rattles its nuclear sable to anyone in sight.
Johnny, you need to polish your logic, you cannot prove or disprove something that does not exist nor it will happen. Maybe people from a caste society can only think of disaster that will happen to other people and nothing else like what you posted.
John Chan
@PeterDownUnder and Johnny, I am not surprised if the-diplomat.com cannot be read in China, because the site has low grade blogger like Kimpo who is not capable of making any meaningful contribution to any topic, but spreads racial hatred in worst socially unacceptable language, as well as attack bloggers who have different opinion as his with revolting language.
In the article “Inouye’s Asia Pacific Warning” Kimpo violated every etiquette of civilized blogging that one can image, he even insulted female victims suffered untold atrocity in the genocide of WWII. Kimpo displayed worst human civility and showed no morality and respect to other human beings.
Kimpo is a hard core member of the anti-China group. I feel sorry for the anti-China group that attracts KKK-like red neck bigot as their members, who disgrace them instead of advancing their courses with reasons and compassion. Institutions attract such low grade characters is the sign of moral decay, it also reflects the quality of the West and its lackeys that are supported by such institutions.
China has the right to stop undesired elements polluting its citizens’ morality. China’s great internet filter is not to stop exchanging constructive ideas, but to stop morally deprived trolling from blogger like Kimpo.
Kimpo
@John Chan You showed great disrespect to soldiers of Taiwan who gave their lives to defend Taiwanese freedom. Claiming Taiwan is an insult to us all so it is you who are offending. If you are so hurt by these type of things then why you and frank do it to others. Even here you are trying to annoy people with propaganda. Taiwan is an free country and nobody has any claim on our coast. If they do then we will respond to those threats and insults.
John Chan
@John L Yoon, West Germans would never treat their eastern compatriots heartless like you. West Germans have been doing whatever it takes to help their eastern country fellows out of poverty since the fall of Berlin Wall decades ago.
Taiwan and China have been at each other’s throat decades, but with patience and effort the relationship has been improving, millions of Taiwanese call China home, people can travel freely across the strait. Within near future Taiwan and China will join hands despite the misgiving of the imperialist West and their lackeys’ hidden agenda.
Improve relationship with NK takes time, patience, focus and effort, SK cannot just give up on their blood relatives in the north just because of the misleading and undermining tricks played by the imperial hegemony in the Asia whose goal is to make Asia a pigs breakfast so that it can profit handsomely.
Do you remember the gospel of “turning the other cheek”? Charity is to give; it is out of compassion, asking return for charity is a trademark of imperialism. Have love and give love to your next kin.
BTW it is puzzling that how can SK call themselves independent under the occupation of the US troops, yet denounced it was an invasion and national humiliation under the occupation of the Japanese troops?
Johnny
@Chan Preaching others is easy but what exactly is going on in Tibet and Taiwan?
Forced settlement of Hans and throwing out of natives in Tibet is no secret, neither is how Tibetans are treated as third grade citizens in their own territory. China took the Tibet by force by engaging in a war. Thousands died in that war. Where was you ‘compassion’ then?
Similarly for Taiwan, people have Taiwan have time and again showed that they don’t want to be a part of China showing as high as 92% people saying that they want an independent Taiwan.
And aren’t you the one who calls people of Taiwan ‘Hideous’ and ‘Human Garbage’.
Chinese posters like you and Frank have absolutely no respect for other countries nor the knowledge or common decency. So please dont tell us how to treat N.Korea.
John Chan
@Johnny, fabricating facts to smear China and bloggers defending China comes to naturally to the anti-China clique. It is you, Johnny, keep on saying “calls people of Taiwan ‘Hideous’ and ‘Human Garbage’”, but nobody else. There are plenty Japanese wannabe as well Japanese hybrid in Taiwan who have hideous intent to undermine Taiwan and China’s unification effort. Chinese bloggers always treat their Taiwan compatriots with respect and warm. The cosy relationship between Taiwan and China is the proof.
Only people from a nation of “honey words and pious gesture” and deeply rooted caste system society can do such cruel things to their own people.
Johnny, you are derailing the discussion again, you are eating your own words, you are not making meaningful contribution on how to help Koreans, but spilling out toxic anti-China troll. Please refrain yourself to the topic if you are capable of.
Johnny
@Chan Dear Chan, I can post those comment of yours if you want or I can link to them. But as you are trying to disown those comments I wont press that issue further. I am very happy you realize that approach is bad. My respect to you.
I can also post link and proof to all things I posted eg China-Tibet war or rehablitation of hans in that area. I didnt posted those links as all that is common knowledge and an simple search can provide much more info.
And One final thing, If this site is banned in China and you are using it, that too on an regular basis then aren’t you an criminal?
Cloud Hand
North provide for society, should take pity on South, where has unemployment of 1.5 million citizen, as well as hundreds million homeless in Pusan (http://econgeog.misc.hit-u.ac.jp/icgg/intl_mtgs/ISYoon.pdf). North even traitor provide to stay in gated community.
bob anderson
I started to read this essay with high hopes that something would be suggested.The author had some interesting facts but I am afraid all he wrote is “Somebody should do something about N Korea” We know this already.
seouldout
Sorry to learn of your dashed hopes. Were your expectations raised by the writer’s “extensive research and policy experience in issues relating to nuclear non-proliferation, arms control, counterterrorism, and intelligence”? Or was it his use of The Korea Times as his one and only source? Or was it just his youthful appearance that built these high hopes?