A new US intelligence estimate shies from accusing Iran of restarting pursuit of a nuclear bomb. But Arab world unrest has strengthened its hand.
In mid-February, the 16 agencies that make up the US intelligence community began circulating a comprehensive new evaluation of Iran’s nuclear programme. The document, a National Intelligence Estimate, is the first on Iran since a controversial 2007 estimate declared that Iran had ‘halted its nuclear weapons programme.’ That determination led to howls of protest from neoconservatives, hawks, and pro-Israel lobbyists in Washington, and so this time Iran watchers collectively held their breath to see whether the new report would reach a different conclusion.
It didn’t.
Unlike the 2007 estimate, the 2011 version won’t be declassified. However, according to press reports—and to statements from senior US officials such as James R. Clapper, the director of national intelligence—the new estimate seems to shy away from concluding that Iran has resumed the pursuit of a nuclear bomb. Instead, it suggests that at the highest levels of Iran’s national security apparatus—which means inside Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s office, within the Supreme National Security Council, and among President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s aides—there’s a serious debate over whether or not to proceed with a militarization of the programme.
It’s probably accurate to conclude that Iran hasn’t decided one way or another whether to seek a bomb, although last month the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that it had recently received new information that might pertain to an Iranian effort to develop a missile capable of carrying a nuclear payload.
But one crucial assumption among the drafters of the US NIE is open to question and could be seriously flawed. This relates to the usefulness of the sanctions imposed on Iran’s economy by the UN Security Council, and the even stronger unilateral measures imposed by the United States and other nations, including from the European Union. According to a US official quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the debate inside Iran has been sparked to a significant degree by the effectiveness of sanctions. ‘The bottom line is that the intelligence community has concluded that there’s an intense debate inside the Iranian regime on the question of whether or not to move toward a nuclear bomb,’ a US official told the Journal. ‘There’s a strong sense that a number of Iranian regime officials know that the sanctions are having a serious effect.’
That’s questionable. It is also unlikely that a covert campaign of sabotage, assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, and the well-publicized Stuxnet computer worm have intimidated Iran into having second thoughts, either. In fact, on the nuclear front at least, things seem to be going Iran’s way.
Photo Credit: Office of Iranian President
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Gene Zeller
Here’s an old idea that seems timely: Why not take up the Saudi idea to denuclearize the ENTIRE mid east? UN inspectors in all countries etc. As I recall Saudi’s offered this together with diplomatic recog of Israel, regional peace plan etc. Summarily rejected/ignored years ago when the US had lots of friendly dictatorship ready to back up our policies in the area. Seems to me that this might me a good time to settle for “a draw” and put our resources and attention elsewhere.
Vineet
This is all a smokescreen to lull Iran into thinking that there wont be aany attack. A massive strike has already been thoroughly planned and in place. Nobody can allow the Iranians to have a Nuclear Weapons option, not even Russia. No price is too high to prevent it.
Greg Walta
Let’s hope there is no plan to attack Iran. The neo-cons drew the US into two ill-considered wars in the Middle East and we don’t need another one. And we don’t need the Israelis to do something stupid either. Israel is on the edge of delegitimization. It needs to make peace not war
Fred Alexander
Everyone knew from the very start that Iran’s intentions are to produce nuclear weapons with the exception of government officials who prefer diplomacy over action. The new DVD “Iranium the movie” explains what government officials do not say publicly and that is as soon as Iran has nuclear weapons is is “Death to America.” America has no defense from Iran using nuclear weapons against us (they can be launched offshore from cargo ships, etc.)and Iran is not concerned about mutual destruction. Watch the movie it is a real eye opener,the end game is very near. The movie explains that 9 out of 10 Americans will be dead in one year after Iran nukes us.
Nicholas
Iran can’t even reach America. Remember, Iranian technology was exported from North Korea, and is very shoddy. That’s why Stuxnet could take it down so easily. The only countries that could be hit by a direct attack are Israel and Saudi Arabia. Americans have a lot to be worried about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but a direct attack isn’t one of them.