Egypt has shown how fast events can transform political landscapes. It’s not too early to start preparing for North Korea’s possible collapse—and for reunification.
While the popular uprisings in Egypt and the Middle East are unlikely to infect North Korea, they are still a reminder that sudden change is always possible. With this in mind, it’s clear that uncertainties surrounding the transition from Kim Jong-il to his untested son, Kim Jong-un, could precipitate a cascading set of events that ends with swift and unexpected unification.
Rapid unification would almost certainly rule out the soft-landing scenario so devoutly wished for by most South Koreans. That kind of happy reunion would likely require a gradual rapprochement based on increasing economic ties, security confidence-building measures and regular people-to-people contacts. A much more rapid transition would leave no time for such incremental steps, which could come about as part of a long process of confederation.
To be sure, abrupt unification would be intoxicating. Divided in 1945, when the northern and southern Koreas were both desperately poor, the pair would be reuniting with at least one of the two parts having achieved G-20 world-leader status. The streets of Seoul would be filled with euphoric nationalism. In addition, a historical accident would be rectified: namely, the fact that US and Soviet forces ending Japanese occupation in 1945 drew a line across the 38th Parallel as an operational expedient in order to divide responsibility for disarming combatants.
But ecstasy would soon give way to reality. The international community would be left with a stabilization and state-building nightmare bigger than Afghanistan and Iraq and much more dangerous than German reunification 20 years ago. Indeed, if unification were to come about this hastily, the cataclysmic event could well go down in history as one of the biggest missed opportunities of our century.
The problem is that Korea would be unified but not united, and there could well be a resurgence of long-dormant, historical inter-Korean turmoil. Few remember that in the post-1945 aftermath of liberation, deep social fragmentation and political polarization produced an orgy of mayhem and murder. The clandestine political societies that had evolved during Japanese occupation, many of which had been nurtured by outsiders, had free rein to vie for power. When one considers the massive economic disparities that would also be in play because of a South Korean economy more than twenty-fold that of North Korea’s, the technical end of the Korean War could well mark the beginning of another.
Photo Credit: UNC - CFC - USFK
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LOL
So long as the US Empire is stretching her military tentacles in China’s backyard, Korea will never be reunified. Period.
Unless America goes back to her own continent, and let the Asians figure it out themselves, Korea will never be reunified. Period.
Steven Douglas
I agree with LOL…we should let Asians figure it out. We can start by letting Chinese Asians figure out who they want to lead their country and acually allow them to vote or have free speech or free association.
Lee
that is all well and good, however, you ignore the fact that South Korea has asked for the American presence. it is easy to blame one country when you have no clue what is going on behind closed doors…amazing how many people have the answer to the world’s problems and yet somehow, they are not the one’s in a position to make the decision…so obviously it is not as simple as it seems….
Greg
Social imperialist Maoist running dog! When militarist communist killers give up power, there will be peace. The blood of millions of Koreans are on Chinese bloody hands.
Grant
The problem with this idea is that from everything we have seen China do we have no reason to believe that China will grow closer to South Korea or to the U.S on this issue. Yes, the cables revealed by Wikileaks have suggested that some Chinese officials have stated that they are getting tired of North Korea but what have we actually seen China do? So far we have seen constant efforts to protect North Korea at the U.N and other cables from Wikileaks suggest that China ignored U.S requests to search shipments from North Korea that were suspected to violate the U.N embargo.
I cannot deny the possibility that with the coming change in leadership there might be a shift in policy but I seriously doubt, particularly with the apparent strength of the Chinese military in politics.
S P Dudley
The risks on Korean Unification are a bit similar to the Yugoslavian breakup. In 1991 it was pretty obvious that Yugoslavia wasn’t going to survive much longer as a state, but instead of managing the “divorce” of the complement nations inside, individual nations outside Yugo acted on their own and started to encourage independence for its components (Germany was particularly rash on this). Without a diplomatic framework to work out the separation of the various Yugo states, there was a domino effect once one state declared independence, and war resulted.
The risks in Korean unification are that individual players such as South Korea and China will work on their own to support factions within North Korea to seize the government, should the Kim regime start to get unstable. If both South Korea and China support opposing factions both sides will go “all in” to get into the North before it completely collapses and you could have a war between China and South Korea (and by extension the USA) as a result.
It’s time to give up on the disarmament issue and get the six parties to work on a post-Kim regime in the North that will progress to a union of the Koreas. Wikileaks (if it’s to be believed) showed evidence that the Chinese are not quite in control of things in Pyongyang and if South Korea can work out an arrangement with China, specifically that a unified Korean state will not maintain nuclear weapons and will not permanently station US troops, the Chinese might be persuaded to agree to a unification.
Some have suggested that the Chinese might fear a unified Korea. That’s probably true, but the Chinese have a strategic interest in opposing and isolating Japan, and a unified Korea would see Japan as a strategic competitor. So there’s incentive there for both nations to find an arrangement. Not that I agree with that, but it’s one possible scenario to consider.
Stefan Stackhouse
One of the most helpful things the US could do to defuse tensions both now and in the event of this sudden reunification scenario would be to declare that our forces are there strictly for defense south of the DMZ, and to commit to not moving our armed forces north of that line under any circumstances. (An exception could, perhaps, be made for unarmed forces offering logistical support for humanitarian assistance operations.) Relocating them far to the south would help even more. These days, our forward deployment is more of a provocation to the PRC and DPRK than it is a reassurance to the ROK.
This would reassure the Chinese considerably. I would venture to guess that had the US-led forces simply restored the status quo ante and stopped, rather than continuing on all the way to the border with China (and threatening to go beyond, in McArthur’s mind at least), the PLA would never have intervened and the Korean war would have ended years and lives earlier. It is even within the realm of possibility that the DPRK regime would have collapsed and the reunification that is envisioned here could have happened in the early 1950s.
If the Chinese can be reassured that they are not going to be facing armed US forces directly across their border, then this will give them room to lean quite a bit harder on the DPRK, and to be less obstructive if there ever is movement toward reunification.
ksou
A Korean Unification may be dangerous, since you have a starving population in the North that will likely attempt to rush into the South as soon as the wall falls. Plus the North’s government will fall apart leading to near chaos .
This also presents a problem for China, the Chinese will have to deal with millions of North Korean refugees trying to do what all people will do when presented with hunger, go somewhere with food .
It wouldn’t surprise me if China decides to “teach them on lesson ” on N.Korea and invades , then sets up a puppet government . This puppet government, controlled by China , would serve Chinese interest . China fears an unified Korea, since it would instantly become an economic competitor . Therefore this Chinese puppet would maintain a status quo of a divided Korea, but their would be far less tension .
Caleb
“China fears an unified Korea, since it would instantly become an economic competitor . Therefore this Chinese puppet would maintain a status quo of a divided Korea, but their would be far less tension.”
I’ve yet to find any weight to this assumption. In a general sense, China would fear a reunified Korea as a competitor but only so far as China would fear any country as a competitor. A reunified Korea has neither the natural resources, human capital, or technological superiority that would cause China a major headache (as opposed to say, the US, the EU or India). Thus, I fail to see the long term interests for China to support a divided Korea. Even Japan, where there is strong mutual distrust, has found a complementary trading system with China. If anything, I think China has more to gain (economically) with a reunified Korea than without.
Duke
I predict that China may disintegrate into regional mini-Chinas as result of North Korea’s demise.
China will invade to set-up a puppet regime but what if North Koreans fight back? Chinese PLA conscripts consisting of spoiled mama’s boys thanks to the ill conceived 1 child policy will face well trained NK army and reserves hell bent on defending their homeland. US, Russia, Japan and South Korea won’t stand pat either and demand PLA withdrawals and support the NK defenders. In the mean time NK Scuds land all over China not to mention 1 humiliating defeat after another by NK guerrilla and regular forces. Chinese economy inflated by easy money bubbles and real estate will pop and people angry with financial losses and perhaps economic sanctions by the rest of the world will result in mini peasant revolution. Opportunistic regional warlord may take over – old typical history of China repeats.
John Chan
@Duke, it is an article about Korea, on what earth do you put in such mean spirited words to bad mouthing China? Which nation do you come from? How can a nation bring up their citizens like you that are mean spirited, and mindful of bad faith toward others. Instead of trying to follow China to build their nations to prosperity, they become jealous, resentful and fearful of what China has achieved, and turned their depression into terrible expression against China like you.
Greg
Mr. Chan, no on trusts china. No one.
typhoonq
@Duke
Obviously, you would like to see this happen. What a evil person are you!
China will not fragment into smaller states like former USSR. On the contrary, she will consolidate her strength and territory with the reunification of Taiwan by 2020.
China has been a unified country for more than two thousand years and 92% of the people are Han Chinese and speak and write a common language.
Why would a country break up when it’s people are enjoying better living standard and gaining prosperity year by year.
Duke, are you prepared to reveal your nationality ?
John
@Duke
To be honest, thats not a likely scenario. Its more likely the United States will fracture along regional lines, which could occur if the United States loses it status of world power and national focus internalizes. Issues such as gay rights and immigration are continuously avoided by the federal government creating tension between states. After all, we are the most liberal and free speaking society in the world. We allow any ideas to manifest, and certainly, secession is still in the minds of the people (at least in the South).
~Kezo~
I give the U.S. ten years before it almost destroys itself, it’s one of the few Developed Nations that I know of in which it’s own citizens hate and would love to destroy each other over their differences. The US is the most selfish first world nation that I know of on the planet. Hell, our very culture is ruled by an almost savage drive for self gratification that it is the very model of a perverted form of social Darwinism, as idolized by the majority of our conservative population, while the liberal side believe in supporting policies that sounds pretty, but with absolutely no substance or real value, and would rather throw excuses at the problem rather than solve it like adults.
Ironically, if both political parties were to truly co-operate, rather than fight like the spoiled children that they are,then they could easily advance as a country and nation of it’s own, but as it stands, Our nation needs to invade and destroy other nations rather than fix and maintain our own.
So unfortunately due to our voracious appitite, our selfish hatred, and our own ignorance fueled by TV it looks like our nation is very close to being in it’s last throes because our leaders and ourselves are just like spoiled children, neither are emotionally mature enough to stand on their own, let alone together!
But then again, our leaders DO agree on one thing..Plutocracy, as they have shown with how they support corporations and themselves rater than the people that they serve, rather they pit we the people against each other to maintain their careers.
Further, our rapid decay is fueled by a desperate need to consume above all else, because we believe it to be our “God given” right, and guess what happens when a spoiled child whom believes they’re “entitled” loses their favorite toy? They will waste and destroy everyone in their way to get back what is “theirs”, particularly when it wasn’t even theirs to begin with..
Because of our nation’s leader’s (Who WE elect) short sighted mission to rapidly deplete our own resources to greedily achieve monetary and social dominance over it’s own countrymen our nation is doomed to fall by our own hand. So when “Duke” actually has the arrogance to criticize countries like China that have successfully maintained their nation many decades BEFORE the Roman empire and during the time when most of Europe was getting wiped out by disease from dumping their sewage and garbage in the streets of their cities, and in the very waterways in which they drank and bathed, just realize that like his grunting peers, “Duke’s” word holds as much weight as water being flushed down a toilet.
I don’t know if China will do the right thing or not, or even how and when North and South Korea can simply exist as “Korea” I do know that the rest of the world would certainly benefit from it, and I’m also sure that I’m not as ignorant as a man who steals from another, while leaving my own door unlocked!
Smiley G
Duke, your ignorance shows. You obviously haven’t read the CIA report released in the 1990s where Washington was dismayed to learn that China was least likely to distingerate unlike Indonesia and India. You obviously don’t understand that China is a continuous state and civilization for more than 4,000 years while Indonesia and India are relatively recent artifical constructs. Nations are not made by cobbling disparate states, tribes, islands, overnight.
LOL
A reunified Korea will not be a economic competitor to China, since a reunified Korea will be set back decades in development because it’s inherit one of the most decrepit, backwards, and poor Stalinist regimes in the world.
A reunified Korea in the long term may regain some of her glory, but she will never be the same because North Korea is TOO BIG OF A FAILURE TO BE A SUCCESS.
Johnny
It is a well known fact that N.Korea is indulged in mass scale violations of human rights and its infrastructure has collapsed leaving people without basic amenities. There attitude towards others is also very irresponsible threatening nuclear attacks if things don’t go their way. This attitude is a threat to humanity as a whole and not just for S.Korea. Reunification may result in temporary disturbance but it would provide massive long term gains to both S.Korea and world stability.
Also, @Alex I can’t understand why you start bashing USA on every possible occasion? You are saying that USA isn’t attacking N.Korea as it will affect weapons sales but US isn’t stopping S.Korea either. So either go ahead and have your war Or if you want US support than wait for them. Why criticize them? Just because they sell weapons to S.Korea? Then why not criticize China who provides weapons to N.Korea?
alex
For some time now USA economy based on fear, problem of among another countries in order to sale of weapons that is a base for economic growth in America.
Any peace any peaceful scenario like Korean unification it would be blow to sale of weapons to Korea so it must be not so good for USA.Next best thing to do profess fear illogical scenarios to ignorant public to get public support to look for a wars.
But how long one must ask?
Egypt scenario would not be predicted CIA with a billions of public dollars.So how can we accept your prediction that Korean Unification would be dangers.
We thought a danger was either prediction or your middle man,like a get smart agent 86 says ” danger’s and love in it”
Devin
@ alex
First of all, what? Second of all, no.
Your analysis relies heavily on fears of American neoconservatism, which have proven to be the major impetus for many worldwide injustices, yes. But at the same time, it paints with a very broad brush and, in my opinion, takes the easy road by laying the blame squarely on the shoulders of a (perhaps deservedly) easy target. While there may be some in the US who’d oppose reunification for reasons of military strategy and weapon sales, you discount entirely the most glaringly apt explanations.
First of all, as the article’s author points out, this would bear no resemblance to East/West German reunification. Recombining willy-nilly the South, with one of the world’s biggest economies, with the North, a nation whose crumbling infrastructure, chronic food shortages, and empty factories have caused the deaths of thousands, if not millions of its own citizens, would cause massive runs for the border, resulting in what might become an apartheid state or a tanking economy. Over 50 years of separation has, like it or not, created two irreconcilable halves which would take years, if not decades to combine into a functional whole. This doesn’t even take into account differing ideological and foreign policy considerations, which are a whole different and possibly more challenging hurdle.
I’m no expert on Inter-Korean studies, but I can’t take the easy road of placing the blame on the United States, at least in this situation. Also, I cringe when I see others doing so. The United States’ hands are FAR from clean, but exalting them to puppet-master status in this case is lazy and adds little in the way of constructive commentary.
len-nin
Nonsense. Washington IS a puppet master. Who are you trying to protect?