Similarly, sudden unification could produce fateful new geostrategic fault lines. Recall that in 1945-1947, US patience and diplomacy were slowly overtaken by a congealing animus and strategic competition that remained frozen in the 40-year-long Cold War. In addition, mistrust and miscalculation could catalyze a Sino-American rivalry that might polarize all of Northeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific region.
Some scholars have argued that Sino-American competition is anyway inevitable, and that engagement can’t alter that trajectory. But for those of us who believe human agency and effective institutions have something to say about the future, there would be a profound sadness because of the missed chance for great power engagement and cooperation.
China’s leaders should therefore try to better align their interests with South Korean, US and Japanese interests with respect to North Korea’s lethal use of force and nuclear ambitions. This hypothetical scenario, given fresh impetus by the sweeping changes now underway in Egypt, reminds us that it behoves officials to have persistent, in-depth, detailed discussions to plan for a range of contingencies on the Korean Peninsula.
There would be much to plan for in the event of sudden unification. Hard security issues, for instance, would include the disposition of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery; the movement of military troops and major combat platforms like aircraft carriers; the disarmament and reintegration of the 1.1-million Korean People’s Army; and the future location of alliance bases and forces.
Meanwhile, a raft of state-building issues would ensue, with perhaps the biggest being an unrealistic expectation in northern Korea for a massive economic transfer for which the world would have to be ready to help pay for. That would require new infrastructure, including regional energy grids, all in the midst of turmoil over migration, property rights, educational reform and environmental cleanup. Retributive justice could follow and might well spill over into the region. Things certainly wouldn’t go smoothly.
But the upheaval and the potentially devastating long-term consequences of not planning for such a scenario would undoubtedly be worse. Last month in Beijing, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said, ‘We are in strong agreement that in order to reduce the chances of miscommunication, misunderstanding or miscalculation, it is important that our military-to-military ties are solid, consistent and not subject to shifting political winds.’
Egypt is a reminder that those winds could shift much faster than we ever expected.
Dr. Patrick M. Cronin is Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Programme at the Center for a New American Security
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ari
I tend to agree with with KoreanUnificationist that the sinking of the Cheonan was by the Americans. They have the motives and they have the most to gain. I question the sinking was by North Korea. Washington did not like the sunshine policy of Seoul and Pyongyang, so that miserable creep Goerge Bush stopped it and supported LMB covertly to get into power. No, Washington is not interested in peace in North East Asia but seeked instead to keep tensions on the boil there to maintain it strateic interest. South Koreans and Japanese are all pawns in her murderous power game. Have no illusions about the evil intentions and motives of Washington for East Asia.
I look to the day when a united East Asia come together to fight and kick out the great American Pretender or Anti-Christ out of the Far East.
KoreanUnificationist
All Koreans want reunification. First off, I am a Korean, my parents are Korean, I experience “Koreanness” and I learn about Korea.
USA claims to spread democracy all over the world? We called that bull. A country who first supported Gaddafi 4 years ago now backstabs him in Libya to look good.
Same thing they do on Korea. Claiming to be a protective ally but rather an obstacle to Korean purpose.
EVERYONE ATTENTION: The Cheonan sinking? Please don’t give me bull. Here’s what it is. Obama (and us gov’t) wants to control the tensions on their East Asian relationship. Japan asks to remove 2/3 of US troops out of their country (man, US also just keeps on invading other countries). Coincedentally, some days later the Cheonan sinking happened. It’s proven that the US military purposely torpedoed the Cheonan, allowing North Korean criticism.
Our stupid ROK president Lee has no idea what he’s doing. HE IS A DOG OF AMERICAN GOV’T (like Gadaffi, once).
Vladimir Putin wanted to investigate the incident but was bribed by Lee (indirectly, by USA) to stop the investigation. After all, money is the powerful thing in politics.
Oh, and to all American gov’t arrogant, stereotypical supporters, I believe that all gov’ts do bribe, no matter how good their media image is. including US and Korea, or anything.
We may never know the truth. That’s what’s so hyprocritical about politics and history. We live subjectively, not objectively. Media has been even more corrupt, distorting news ever than before.
I don’t give a crap what replies there will be.
BUT MARK MY WORDS!!! US, Japan, China, and many others will hate the day when the Korean peninsula is unified.
Oliver
Everyone, including the US, China, Japan, and Russia, knows that Korean unification is inevitable. The question addressed by the author is when and how that reunification will take place.
I agree that the recent uprising in Egypt shows that a spontaneous radical change in North Korea is quite possible at any moment.
There are many subtle changes taking place in North Korea. It is no longer the same was it was as, let’s say, in 1994 when simultaneously Kim Il Sung died and North Korea suffered a huge famine with 2-3 million starving to death. Many observers thought North Korea would collapse, but the fanatical, almost religious state worship of the North Korean regime proved to be more stable than thought.
Today though, North Korea is slowly opening up and moving towards a de facto market economy, as China did decades ago. In 1994, everyone in North Korea was poor, including the country’s elite and common masses. Today, there is definitely a distinct capitalist class in North Korea who are showing significant and unprecedented signs of affluence and knowledge about the outside world. Whether this reform process will be successful, or whether the strain of economic and political reform will be too much remains to be seen.
But as the author states, a radical collapse or shift in North Korea could occur at any moment, so South Korea and the world should take care to not be taken unawares if this occurs. The task of reintegrating North Korea in the event of a sudden collapse would be monumental and would require immediate international cooperation, especially from South Korea, Japan, China and the United States.
Miles
Interesting, I lived closely to and often met Koreans while living in Los Angeles. Koreans may “all want…reunification” but South Koreans don’t even view North Koreans as the same people or race. Rather, lapdogs who all support the Communist Regime speak a different language and have a different culture. This quite honestly baffles me when racial purity is such an important topic in Korean society and how quick the Korean tongue is to blame foreign powers for its division. No, Korea has had a long history of internally preventing itself from advancing by practicing isolationism in fear of foreign influence. However Korea was freed from Japanese Imperialism by a foreign power, the US and Russia, in 1945. South Korea only exists because the U.S. stepped into the Korean War and defended it from Communist expansion. SK otherwise would have went the way of South Vietnam and good luck even knowing your relatives in the Democratic Republic of Korea, a Stalinist, suffering nation that is too backward to know its torturing people for ill defined reasons.
Why doesn’t South Korea have a more strident opinion of Russia, China or other countries that physically stepped into the defense and continued support of North Korea? I’ve never heard a South Korean have such a passionate, negative opinion of “Deceitful Russians” or “Meddling Chinese” who are the only reason the Korean Peninsula remains divided as far as I am concerned.