Egypt has shown how fast events can transform political landscapes. It’s not too early to start preparing for North Korea’s possible collapse—and for reunification.
While the popular uprisings in Egypt and the Middle East are unlikely to infect North Korea, they are still a reminder that sudden change is always possible. With this in mind, it’s clear that uncertainties surrounding the transition from Kim Jong-il to his untested son, Kim Jong-un, could precipitate a cascading set of events that ends with swift and unexpected unification.
Rapid unification would almost certainly rule out the soft-landing scenario so devoutly wished for by most South Koreans. That kind of happy reunion would likely require a gradual rapprochement based on increasing economic ties, security confidence-building measures and regular people-to-people contacts. A much more rapid transition would leave no time for such incremental steps, which could come about as part of a long process of confederation.
To be sure, abrupt unification would be intoxicating. Divided in 1945, when the northern and southern Koreas were both desperately poor, the pair would be reuniting with at least one of the two parts having achieved G-20 world-leader status. The streets of Seoul would be filled with euphoric nationalism. In addition, a historical accident would be rectified: namely, the fact that US and Soviet forces ending Japanese occupation in 1945 drew a line across the 38th Parallel as an operational expedient in order to divide responsibility for disarming combatants.
But ecstasy would soon give way to reality. The international community would be left with a stabilization and state-building nightmare bigger than Afghanistan and Iraq and much more dangerous than German reunification 20 years ago. Indeed, if unification were to come about this hastily, the cataclysmic event could well go down in history as one of the biggest missed opportunities of our century.
The problem is that Korea would be unified but not united, and there could well be a resurgence of long-dormant, historical inter-Korean turmoil. Few remember that in the post-1945 aftermath of liberation, deep social fragmentation and political polarization produced an orgy of mayhem and murder. The clandestine political societies that had evolved during Japanese occupation, many of which had been nurtured by outsiders, had free rein to vie for power. When one considers the massive economic disparities that would also be in play because of a South Korean economy more than twenty-fold that of North Korea’s, the technical end of the Korean War could well mark the beginning of another.
Photo Credit: UNC - CFC - USFK
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ari
I tend to agree with with KoreanUnificationist that the sinking of the Cheonan was by the Americans. They have the motives and they have the most to gain. I question the sinking was by North Korea. Washington did not like the sunshine policy of Seoul and Pyongyang, so that miserable creep Goerge Bush stopped it and supported LMB covertly to get into power. No, Washington is not interested in peace in North East Asia but seeked instead to keep tensions on the boil there to maintain it strateic interest. South Koreans and Japanese are all pawns in her murderous power game. Have no illusions about the evil intentions and motives of Washington for East Asia.
I look to the day when a united East Asia come together to fight and kick out the great American Pretender or Anti-Christ out of the Far East.
KoreanUnificationist
All Koreans want reunification. First off, I am a Korean, my parents are Korean, I experience “Koreanness” and I learn about Korea.
USA claims to spread democracy all over the world? We called that bull. A country who first supported Gaddafi 4 years ago now backstabs him in Libya to look good.
Same thing they do on Korea. Claiming to be a protective ally but rather an obstacle to Korean purpose.
EVERYONE ATTENTION: The Cheonan sinking? Please don’t give me bull. Here’s what it is. Obama (and us gov’t) wants to control the tensions on their East Asian relationship. Japan asks to remove 2/3 of US troops out of their country (man, US also just keeps on invading other countries). Coincedentally, some days later the Cheonan sinking happened. It’s proven that the US military purposely torpedoed the Cheonan, allowing North Korean criticism.
Our stupid ROK president Lee has no idea what he’s doing. HE IS A DOG OF AMERICAN GOV’T (like Gadaffi, once).
Vladimir Putin wanted to investigate the incident but was bribed by Lee (indirectly, by USA) to stop the investigation. After all, money is the powerful thing in politics.
Oh, and to all American gov’t arrogant, stereotypical supporters, I believe that all gov’ts do bribe, no matter how good their media image is. including US and Korea, or anything.
We may never know the truth. That’s what’s so hyprocritical about politics and history. We live subjectively, not objectively. Media has been even more corrupt, distorting news ever than before.
I don’t give a crap what replies there will be.
BUT MARK MY WORDS!!! US, Japan, China, and many others will hate the day when the Korean peninsula is unified.
Oliver
Everyone, including the US, China, Japan, and Russia, knows that Korean unification is inevitable. The question addressed by the author is when and how that reunification will take place.
I agree that the recent uprising in Egypt shows that a spontaneous radical change in North Korea is quite possible at any moment.
There are many subtle changes taking place in North Korea. It is no longer the same was it was as, let’s say, in 1994 when simultaneously Kim Il Sung died and North Korea suffered a huge famine with 2-3 million starving to death. Many observers thought North Korea would collapse, but the fanatical, almost religious state worship of the North Korean regime proved to be more stable than thought.
Today though, North Korea is slowly opening up and moving towards a de facto market economy, as China did decades ago. In 1994, everyone in North Korea was poor, including the country’s elite and common masses. Today, there is definitely a distinct capitalist class in North Korea who are showing significant and unprecedented signs of affluence and knowledge about the outside world. Whether this reform process will be successful, or whether the strain of economic and political reform will be too much remains to be seen.
But as the author states, a radical collapse or shift in North Korea could occur at any moment, so South Korea and the world should take care to not be taken unawares if this occurs. The task of reintegrating North Korea in the event of a sudden collapse would be monumental and would require immediate international cooperation, especially from South Korea, Japan, China and the United States.