By David Axe
China’s first fifth-generation, J-20 fighter plane could shake up the Pacific order, writes David Axe. But it probably won’t.
It was an audacious debut, even by the dramatic standards of Chinese weapons systems. For months, Western reporters and analysts had heard rumours of photos surfacing, and quickly disappearing, on China’s heavily censored Internet of an advanced jet fighter similar in shape and dimension to the latest US and Russian designs.
On Christmas Day, another photo appeared. And this time, it stayed on-line long enough for foreign observers to catch it.
Bill Sweetman, a long-time aviation reporter currently editing the Washington DC trade journal Defense Technology International, was one of the first outside of China to comment in a widely-read forum, namely the magazine’s Ares blog. The picture, apparently snapped from a car driving past the Chengdu flight-test facility in Western China, ‘allegedly shows China's next-generation Chengdu J-20 fighter—the first known Chinese stealth aircraft—undergoing high-speed taxi trials, with rumours of a first flight within weeks,’ Sweetman wrote.
Sweetman immediately grasped the military, political and industrial implications of the J-20’s apparent debut. ‘Is China about to give airpower hawks their best Christmas present ever?’ he wrote.
The United States, France, Sweden, Russia and an alliance composed of Britain, Spain, Italy and Germany all design and build advanced fighter aircraft. Some of the United States’ and Russia’s designs qualify as fully radar-evading ‘fifth-generation’ or ‘stealth’ aircraft, namely the US F-22 Raptor and the F-35, and the Russian T-50. Until the J-20 appeared, China had been building less sophisticated fighters, most of them copies of a previous generation of Russian planes.
While it should perhaps come as no surprise that the world’s second-largest economy would eventually produce an advanced fighter aircraft, for some foreign observers—including a small but vocal community of airpower apologists in Washington—a Chinese stealth fighter represents a unique threat to the existing world order.
Sweetman warned in his initial reporting on the J-20 that the photo that was the only real evidence of the plane’s existence could actually be a fake—‘a product of the Adobe OKB,’ he said, referring to Adobe’s popular Photoshop image-manipulation software and the Russian acronym for an aviation design bureau.
But from December 25, more photos appeared on-line, each clearer and more revealing than the last, offering proof that not only was J-20 real, but Beijing wanted the world to know it. Indeed, on January 5, the English-language Global Times newspaper, published by the Chinese Communist Party, underscored the latter point by printing a round-up of foreign reporting on the new jet fighter. ‘Denial is not an option,’ Sweetman argued.
He’s right. China has now joined the leading ranks of fighter-building nations, prompting a debate in the West and among China’s immediate neighbours over if and when the J-20 might begin entering service in large numbers—and how that might shape the Pacific balance of power.
All this means that a reliable and useful assessment depends on an accurate view of the J-20’s design, plus a clear-headed consideration of the plane’s industrial, political and strategic context. But even taking the most favourable view of the J-20, it’s hard to credibly claim that Chengdu has changed the world.
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David P.Curcione
1. The Speed is J-20 is (M)2.00+ Miles per Hour too! 3rd Compatered for Making Fighter Jets Fifth Geration too!
typhoonq
@Observer
I have actually responded to your comments earlier but unfortunately it was not accepted by the moderator.
To substantiate what I had posted earlier, please view MilitaryHistoryonline.com
“China Support for North Vietnam during the Vietnam War: The Decisive Edge”
by Bob Seals.
US would have invaded North Vietnam and win the War,if not of China involvement. In his memoir by Robert MacNamara,US was prepared to invade North Vietnam but had to abort for fear of Chinese intervention.
Between 1965 and 1970, over 320,000 Chinese soldiers served in North Vietnam.
At the peak year of 1967, there were 170,000. Some were Chinese military advisers disguised as North Vietnamese officers and accompanied the NVA to the South in combat with the Americans Forces.
Johnny
@typhoonq You comments are blocked by moderators as they lack in content,facts and you quote users comments in inappropriate manner. We all know that you post your comments without using the ‘reply’ button only to put your comment in front. People like you would be blocked in any site/forum with active moderators for violating posting norms but Diplomat is very liberal and perhaps hoping you will leave this practice by inner shame.
Observer
@typhoonq
I am unable to find the said article you refered to at MilitaryHistoryonline.com. Can you provide a direct link
so we all can see for ourself?
Here is my research:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War#People.27s_Republic_of_China
“…In 1950, the People’s Republic of China extended diplomatic recognition to the Viet Minh’s Democratic Republic of Vietnam and sent weapons, as well as military advisors led by Luo Guibo to assist the Viet Minh in its war with the French. The first draft of the 1954 Geneva Accords was negotiated by French Prime Minister Pierre Mendès France and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai who, fearing U.S. intervention, urged the Viet Minh to accept a partition at the 17th parallel.[200]
China’s ability to aid the Viet Minh declined when Soviet aid to China was reduced following the end of the Korean War in 1953. Moreover, a divided Vietnam posed less of a threat to China. China provided material and technical support to the Vietnamese communists worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Chinese-supplied rice allowed North Vietnam to pull military-age men from the paddies and imposed a universal draft beginning in 1960.
In the summer of 1962, Mao Zedong agreed to supply Hanoi with 90,000 rifles and guns free of charge. Starting in 1965, China sent anti-aircraft units and engineering battalions to North Vietnam to repair the damage caused by American bombing, rebuild roads and railroads, and to perform other engineering works. This freed North Vietnamese army units for combat in the South.
Sino-Soviet relations soured after the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia in August 1968. In October, the Chinese demanded North Vietnam cut relations with Moscow, but Hanoi refused.[201] The Chinese began to withdraw in November 1968 in preparation for a clash with the Soviets, which occurred at Zhenbao Island in March 1969. The Chinese also began financing the Khmer Rouge as a counterweight to the Vietnamese communists at this time. China’s withdrawal from Vietnam was completed in July 1970…”
I understand that China and USSR did provide supplies and weapons to North Vietnam to encounter the supplies and weapons to South Vietnam from the US but I
did not see anywhere (even from the well known Wiki) that Chinese personnels were side by side with North Vietnamese troops and fought the US/South Vietnam force.
You also said “…..a Third Rate military power (Vietnam)…..”
Historic facts: Vietnam overcame 1000 years of repeating invasion and enslavement from China (with several short lived rebelions) and beat China for good in 938 CE. Vietnam also beat the Mongols hordes not one, not two, but THREE TIMES by itself while the ‘great’ China (Tong Dynasty) fall like a house of cards under the Mongols. Please name a country in that era that was able to beat the Mongols three times. Vietnam also beat the French at Diet Bien Phu and the Americans and the murderous Khmer Rouge in 1978 and China again in 1979 (by itself vs. China).
Look like they do know how to fight by themselves for a few thousands years to us, with or without China or anyone’s help. You were saying about “third rate”? That’s not what others said about them vs. China, especially in 1979.
One more thing, you still haven’t say anything in response to the flaw and wrong statements from Chinese posters/symphathisers as I said in my previous post.
typhoonq
@Observer
Why don’t you try : http://www.militaryhistoryonline.com/20thcentury/articles/Chinesesupport.aspx
This article by Bob Seals had answered to most of your questions.
1. I am very surprised you have not rebutted my 10 points “Why Vietnam could not have won the Vietnam War if not of China Support”
2. I had already stated earlier, most Western media had played down the Chinese
contribution to the Vietnamese victory during the Vietnam War and Wikipedia
is no exception.
3. I doubt you know the Chinese language and my conculsion is that you are mainly sourcing information from very biased Western views which are mainly written in English.
4. Many of the Chinese clandestine operations during the Vietnam War are now been declassified thru 3rd party. Veterans from the PLA who participated in the war had written many personal encounter taken out from personal diaries and military archieves.
I am not surprise you will say what I read are all Chinese propaganda and lies.
However, I will like to hear from you “Can North Vietnam defend herself entirely if US will to invade them in 1970″
Bearing in mind, North Korea was saved by China when US led UN Forces captured most of North Korea during the Korean War.
Observer
@ typhoonq
Nice article, I am not sure who is Bob Seals or if he was telling the truth or not but let say he is real and he was telling the truth. The article DID NOT, again DID NOT… say anywhere that Chinese soldiers fought side by side with North Vietnamese soldiers against American/South Vietnamese forces as you have claimed in your previous post…(direct quote from you)…”………..The PLA have in depth knowledge of Vietnamese Army thru years of providing military advisers and soldiers that fought side by side against the Americans during the Vietnam War…..…” So your statement was wrong then, and it is still wrong now.
You asked…(direct quotes)…”Could Vietnam have won the war if not of China support? Can North Vietnam defend herself entirely if US will to invade them? US would have invaded North Vietnam…” First of all, as with all of “what IF”, we shall never know for sure but let take a walk down the UNDISPUTABLE history lane, shall we? Let see how well the Vietnamese fought and keep its sovereign throughout 4000 plus years of history.
Historic facts: Vietnam did achieve impressive victories against the much bigger Chinese after 1000 years of repeating invasions and enslavement (with quite a few short lived rebellions) and get rid of the Chinese forever in 938, against the Mongols in 1200s (not one, not three, but THREE TIMES), against the French in 1950s, against the American in 1960s, against the Khmer Rouge in 1978, against the Chinese again in 1979. Are you going to say Vietnam achieved ALL of those HUGE victories with Chinese’ help? Even against the Chinese? Name another small country with better military record against bigger and strong enemies (with as long or longer history) for us please.
Please tell us how well the Chinese fought against the Mongols in 1200s, against the Manchu in 1600s, against the British in 1800s, against the Japanese in 1930s, against the Vietnamese in 1979. Third rate military you said? Are you sure you were not talking about the Chinese?
I did reply to your 10 points post with (direct quote) in my previous post…”… .I understand that China and USSR did provide supplies and weapons to North Vietnam to encounter the supplies and weapons to South Vietnam from the US but I did not see anywhere (even from the well known Wiki) that Chinese personnels were side by side with North Vietnamese troops and fought the US/South Vietnamese forces…” and so far, my statement is still standing tall.
You also “forgot” to mention all the supplies, weapons, and supports the USSR (Russia now) sent to North Vietnam. China DID NOT do it alone. How convenient that you “forgot” to state that fact.
Now it is my turn. When are you going to say something in response to the ridiculous statements from Chinese/China sympathizer posters as I mentioned in my previous post? What are you waiting for? I made my several rebuttals with undisputable historic facts, now it is your turn. Don’t be a hypocrite.
Seston
I love these aritcles. How many words can a wordsmith smith?
typhoonq
@ Observer
In April, 2006 an evenet was held in Vietnam to honor almost 1,100 Chinese soldiers klled and 4,200 injured during the Vietnam War.
typhoonq
@ Observer
Just back from holiday. Most Western media had down played China contribution to Vietnamese victory over the Americans during the Vietnam War.
There is one article from Military Historyonline.com “China Support for North Vietnam during the Vietnam War : The Decisive Edge
So why did the powerful nations like France and US lose two wars in Vietnam to a Third Rate military power.
Without a shadow of doubts China involvement had played a major role in helping Vietnam to win these wars.
1. US would have invaded North Vietnam and finished off the North Vietnamese Army just like what they did to Iraq. However, it was quite different during that Originally, Robert Macnamara and Gen Westmoreland proposed to invade North Vietnam to secure early victory, but had to abort such plan for fear of Chinese intervention. They do not want another Korean War after experineceing defeat in North Korea. (US led UN Forces had to retreat from the Yalu back to South Korea after they were defeated)
2. Most of North Vietnamese War machines and supplies came via China either by land or sea. Without these supplies North Vietnamese War machines would have grinded to a halt.
3.North Vietnam had to rely entirely on USSR and China to provide all the necessites to fight against the Americans. USSR provide the major military hardwares like SAM missiles, Radars,Migs, rockets,Tanks,PT missile boats.
China also provide tanks, Artillery pieces,Ant-Aircraft guns,assault rifles
Trucks,machine guns,ammunition, RPG Anti-tank weapons,granades,Food, fuel.
4. China provide sancturary to North Vietnamese Air Force after their air bases were destroyed by USAF.
5. China deployed 20 Anti-aircraft divisions and was reponsible of shooting down 1,700 US aircraft.
6. China also deployed several combat Engineer Divisions to help the Vietnamese to repairs road,railway lines and bridges after USAF bombing run on North Vietnam infra structure.
7. Between 1965 and 1970, over 320,000 Chinese soldiers served in North Vietnam.
At it’s peak in 1967, there were 170,000 PLA troops.
This had eable to free large number of North Vietnamese Divisions to move to the South to fight against the US Forces.
8. China provide many Korean war veteran military advisors to North Vietnamese combat Divisions. They were usually disguised as North Vietnamese officers.
9. The Doctrine of Tunnel Warfare first developed and mastered by the Chinese gurellias during the Sino Japanese War were taught and adopted by the Vietnamese to great success while fighting against vastly superior American Forces in South Vietnam.
10. China had also provide North Vietnam with vast amount of medicine, field hospitals, Doctors and Nurses.
I reckon I have said enough. You are most welcome to rebutt what I just stated.