By The Diplomat
In the first of a series of interviews looking back on 2010, we speak to ICG analyst Daniel Pinkston about events on the Korean Peninsula.
Conspiracy theories persist over the March sinking of the South Korean corvette the Cheonan. Is there any doubt in your mind that North Korea was responsible?
I don’t think so. I can’t think of another explanation that holds water. Of course, I didn’t see it with my own eyes. And there are some people who even if they did see a ship or submarine with Korean People’s Army markings on it would still say it was a CIA or South Korean intelligence operation. But the forensic evidence shows it was a torpedo. Who else would have fired a torpedo? There’s no way to say with 100 percent certainty, but there’s no alternative explanation that even comes close to making sense.
So what do you think was behind the decision to do this? Would this have been planned in advance?
I think they were planning it for quite some time. This isn’t the first time something like this has happened in that area—ships have been sunk before and aircraft have been shot down before, and there have been escalating tensions recently. The North Koreans sent several warnings and signals about this and we did see a naval clash last year. After all, historically, North Korea has executed attacks and provocations on numerous occasions.
Some of the conspiracy theories aren’t even worth addressing, they’re quite silly. However, there were some serious questions, and there were some odd things in the investigation.
Such as?
Such as the blue pin marking on the torpedo, the propulsion system parts recovered from the sea floor. There were a number of problems about how information was slowly released to the public regarding the thermal observation device records, the time line etc. The South Koreans also put up the wrong schematic for the torpedo during the briefing on May 20 even though they knew it was wrong the day before. They just wanted to keep pushing the time schedule. The way they handled relations with the press, opposition party, the inter government agencies…There were a number of blunders. But that doesn’t change where the attack came from—they are completely different issues.
This year saw the appointment of Kim Jong-il’s youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as a general. Is there any doubt now he’ll be the successor to Kim Jong-il?
It certainly appears he will be. Arrangements were already being made last year. There have been constitutional changes, elevating of the status of Kim Jong-il and the Kim family cult, expansion of the national defence commission, expansion of the number of members and roles they would play, efforts to resuscitate the economy, suppress or eradicate markets, take control of economic resources so the state could reward loyalists or punish dissidents, military promotion—things like that. It has all been pointing in the direction of a transferring of power to him.
Photo Credit: US Army
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Let us clarify the whole situation by un-masking the US and South Korean intentions or fantasies,and honestly explaining North Korean’s side of the story. Also,realistically or truthfully informing about China’s sincere efforts to promote and maintain peace and stability in North East Asia. The US’s past and present strategy is to gain an extra inch of influrence when ever posible often at the expense of North East Asia(all win-win for the US and loss-loss for others). South Korea’s hardheads(hardliners or shortsighted fools)believe the time is ripe to over-run(unify)the North by conspiring with the US. North Korea is sensitive and awares of the external threats in the face of power transfer from father to son. China’s stance is clear and practical to all right minded people except those seeking to de-stabilize North East Asia and those in North East Asia still unable to break out of their hopeless dreams which in this case is the South Korean government. The entire theatrical show has the potential to sway in both directions(productive or destructive). The US’s intention is evidently destructive while China works very hard to ease tensions. At the end of the day(in weeks if not months),the situation on the peninsular will be resolved in a basic human manner and peace and stability will be maintained agaisnt many ill-intentions to do harms to North East Asia. Unlike others,China does not and will not have the luxuries to engage in strategic fantasies(hegemony,influrence,domination,or No.1 status). China’s path is restricted to maintaining steady no-nonsense developnments with basic human characteristics as its core driving force which will always overcome or destroy any obsticles-human crooks or natural disasters. It is very pitiful that sometimes a simple situation is deliverately spinning into a crisis by a few persons the masses in their respective nations elected them to do their jobs in a positive way. Again,the human animal can become lower than other Earthly creatures. At the same time,other human beings who stick to the priciple of just being a normal basic human being fairs ten times better than crooks who believe they have a special right to do harms to others.