Without the openness that comes with democracy, China’s relations with the US and its neighbours are destined to be tense at best.
US relations with China hit a rough patch this year. The world’s sole superpower and Asia’s largest rising power jousted over the South China Sea, clashed over how to respond to North Korea’s sinking of the South Korean ship Cheonan, and for a time shelved military exchanges. Is this the beginning of an enduring rivalry or merely a temporary downturn?
The answer lies in the past as much as the present – but history provides some cause for concern about the future of US-China relations. A careful survey of the early twentieth century reveals that rising autocracies inherently and predictably spawn mistrust, and that their ascent culminates in rivalry, if not outright military conflict. By contrast, rising powers with rule of law and transparent governance offer multiple avenues for reassurance, meaning they can rise without provoking strategic competition.
Seen in this light, China has made a bet against history. Since Deng Xiaoping, successive Chinese leaders have assumed that economic modernization would assure the world of China’s benign intentions without requiring changes to one-party rule at home. Yet China’s economic interdependence with the world and references to ‘peaceful development’ and ‘harmonious society’ have done little to assuage the growing anxiety in Washington and Asian capitals about Beijing’s strategic trajectory. China’s bet against history is failing.
The United States has also made a gamble. Since Richard Nixon, successive US administrations have assumed that integrating China into the international system would transform China before China could transform the system. US engagement has paved the way for China’s integration into the global economy and membership in most international organizations, yet more than two decades after the Tiananmen Square crackdown, political reform remains on ice. Meanwhile, China has begun to transition from a rule taker to a rule maker in international affairs. This means that although it’s still too early to say that the US bet was wrong, our ability to say it was right is increasingly in doubt.
The United States can’t make China a democracy. Indeed, sudden political pluralism in China without the stabilizing underpinnings provided by the rule of law and good governance would only increase the risks of illiberal democracy and cause even greater uncertainty about China’s strategic trajectory. (And the current generation of Chinese leadership is anyway unlikely to introduce political reforms that would jeopardize the Communist Party’s singular hold on power).
But at the same time, both the United States and China need to recognize that economic interdependence and efforts at mutual diplomatic reassurance are no substitute for evidence of greater transparency and liberalism within China if we’re to build real strategic trust. This message should be delivered loud and clear by the White House and the State Department, with consistent demonstrations of support for human rights, media freedom, rule of law and civil society within China.
In Asia’s burgeoning multilateral architecture, the United States should work with other like-minded democracies to reinforce the theme that meaningful confidence-building depends on transparency and participatory government within the member states and not on the outdated principle of ‘non-interference in internal affairs’ that Beijing asserts should guide regional integration. The case must be made within the region that stronger institutions and citizen participation will ultimately create stronger states, a lesson well demonstrated by the democratic transitions of Korea and Indonesia.
Photo Credit: Flickr / daren_ck
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Eric
China will collapse.
It is inevitable.
Politically, socially, economically they are completely self destructive, so far they’ve held it off ,but this game of russian roulette there playing is getting riskier and riskier, each year that passes is an added bullet.
d
Don’t talk to China, they don’t deserve it. Without the US, Japan would still rule China until today. Japan was Vietnamese’s inspiration to get rid of France.
If Chinese people are smart, they would not have been ruled by Japan 50 years ago. Long live Japan, long live Vietnam.
Observer
@YiJiun
You were the one that claimed China was peaceful and other countries were the aggressors. I had no choice but to debunk your ridiculous statements with UNDENIABLE HISTORY FACTS. You did not, or rather COULD NOT; provide any arguments to debunk my questions, not even one, in my previous post. You fail spectacularly as a debater and your statements therefore, were confirmed as utterly false.
Vietnam would have no history without China? Oh really?…. FACT: Vietnam NEVER asked or invited China to enter but China was the invasion hordes that attacked and enslaved Vietnam many times for over 1000 year. Vietnam finally got rid of the invasion hordes once and for all. Vietnam has a unique and totally different culture, language, identity, heritage, way of life, etc. than China.
Vietnam communist is born out of China? Oh did you know that …FACT: China communist country was born out of the old communist Soviet Union which was born out of Karl Marx’s idea (a German). I bet you and your elks were being taught that the “great” chairman Mao invent the whole great communist thing, right? So pathetic.
Rope in the US? …..FACT: Vietnam opens Cam Ranh deep port and invites everyone (US, Russia, India, etc., and yes, even China and everyone else) to use as long as for it is for peaceful purposes. Vietnam does not support rogue states/regimes such as North Korea, Burma, et al, as China does.
Ungrateful! No shame!?…..Ungrateful for what? For China’s invasion and enslavement over 1000 years? …. FACT: China was/is/will be the big bully with a long proven history of invasion of Vietnam. China IS the one that should be with great shame and with blood on its hands.
Get desserts in the end? Huh? Is that a threat? Should the Vietnam people be scared? Did China tell Vietnam that in 1979 before it attacked Vietnam? What was the result? Did China try not one, not twice, but many… many…. many times to invade and enslave Vietnam? What was the result? How did China do versus Japan in 1930s (especially at Nanking)? versus the Manchu? versus the Mongols? What were the results?
Bottom line: You, John Chan, and your elks need to learn some history lessons before coming in here or anywhere else and spew out all the trash and claim China as a victim. China is far, far from being an innocent victim. You and your elks are just a bunch of pathetic clueless simpletons. Get out and expanse your knowledge beyond what the Communist government taught you. Good luck, you are going to need it.
Michael
One should not embellish history to suit his views! All the good things about Vietnam came from China especially the Chinese Confucius Ideology! Without Chinese contribuition culturally, ideologically, and most of all genetically, Vietnam would have been just like Burma, Loas, and Cambodia…all failed states just like every other South Asian country!
Observer
Embellish history to suit his views? Point out what I posted so far is not true, look like your comrades are more into revised history than anyone else.
All the good things about Vietnam came from China? Another ignorant statement.
Speaking of genetically contribution, China got plenty contributions from the Mongols, the Manchu, and the Japaneses, just to name a few.
Anatole
Lots of wrong statements by both sides here:
1. Vietnamese communism was not derived from China but was rather a Soviet Union-inspired state.
2. However in the long run of history Vietnam belongs to the Yue, which is one of of the cultural sub-groups of Chinese culture. It is certainly not as independent as Thailand, Tibet or Mongolia; or even Japan.
3. The 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War was waged “aggressively” by China, insofar as China invaded Vietnam. The Vietnamese basically “won” that war.
4. However overall in history, it would be difficult to label China as aggressively expansionist compared to its counterparts: the Han were not as aggressive as the Romans; the Tang and Song were not as aggressive as the Caliphates or Mongols; the Ming were not as expansionist as the Europeans and the Qing were not as imperialistic as the Japanese. China is pretty insular,m its disputes (Tibet, Taiwan &c) localised.
But what is the point of all this debate? In history there are no rights or wrongs, just winners and losers. China has been on the losing for a lot of the last two hundred years. However since Deng Xiaoping took control, it has been on an upward path and I think will continue so for some time. People will have to live with it however they can; the US will struggle against it until it cannot be held off any longer, then it will embrace it with the reinvention it always demonstrates. Europe will find it more difficult. The Japanese and Koreans know how the land lies; so does Taiwan. This is all just realpolitik in its purest form.
Observer
1. Don’t tell that to the Chinese posters. They think their great chairman Mao invent the whole communist thing.
2. Sorry, Vietnam people/culture does not belong to anyone but their own. Source – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnamese_people
3. Agree and add a note. Chinese forces did not even fight with the regular Vietname army (they were busy in Cambodia to remove the murderous Khmer Rouge).
4. I did not compare Chinese with anyone. All I did were to provide indisputable historic facts that China has a long proven history of invasion into Vietnam.
What are my points? My points are ridiculous statements from various posters that stated China was the peaceful country and Vietnam was the aggressor and everything from Vietnam came from China and so on are flat out wrong. Period.
Anatole
@Observer:
I think you are pushing your nationalistic point a little too far. You cannot deny that Vietnamese culture is broadly a sub-group of China any more than the Koreans or Japanese can. Why would you even want to unless you were trying to make a political point?
The link you posted does not really support your view at all. Here are some choice quotes:
“Before the Chinese actually colonized Vietnam, groups from southern China began to move into the Tonkin Delta in order to start new lives after being forced to leave their homelands. Thus, around the 3rd century BC, changes in China began to heavily influence the Dong Son culture which was thriving in Vietnam. One important series of changes occurred along the Yangtze River in southern China. According to historians, in 333 BC, three cultures, the Shu, the Ch’u, and the Yueh began to fight among themselves, causing the Yueh to move south in small scattered kingdoms. At the same time, the central power of northern China, the Ch’in Dynasty, began to split so that a large number of princes and members of the aristocracy also moved south to start their own small kingdoms. Cantonese “Yueh” gave the name “Viet”.
The people of the Red River civilizations, also known as Lac society, began to feel the effects of these newcomers who gradually moved into their homelands. Many historians believe that it was not difficult for the Yueh to be incorporated into Lac society. However, the Au Lac lords began to fight with the Ch’in princes. While they were involved in this fighting, another group from the northwest, the Thuc (who had once been the Shu of the Yangtze River) took advantage of weakness in the area and asserted their authority. The legendary citadel of Co Loa, the remains of which can still be seen today. An Dương Vương’s arrival explains the origins of the legendary Au Lac kingdom which is usually associated with the height of Dong Son culture.Vietnamese language may be representative of these influences.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnamese_people#Cultural_and_historical_influences
Observer
@ Anatole
Me as nationalist? Did I ever say things like China was always peaceful and everyone else were the aggressors? Did I say my country is better than x or y or z countries? You must be confused me with certain posters from China or Chinese posters pretending to be someone else from other countries such as Singapore.
My link did provide evidences to support my assertions. Here are some quotes:
“……Archaeological evidence of the bronze age Dong Son Culture (also known as Lac Society) suggests the ancient Vietnamese people were among the first to practice agriculture…..”
“……Historians believe that the earliest Vietnamese people gradually moved from the Indonesian archipelago through the Malay Peninsula and Thailand until they settled on the edges of the Red River in the Tonkin Delta…..”
Here is another link for you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam
“…..The area now known as Vietnam has been inhabited since Paleolithic times, and some archaeological sites in Thanh Hóa Province purportedly date back several thousand years. Archaeologists link the beginnings of Vietnamese civilization to the late Neolithic, Early Bronze Age, Phung Nguyen culture, which was centered in Vĩnh Phúc Province of contemporary Vietnam from about 2000 to 1400 BCE.
By about 1200 BCE, the development of wet-rice cultivation and bronze casting in the Ma River and Red River plains led to the development of the Dong Son culture, notable for its elaborate bronze drums. The bronze weapons, tools, and drums of Dong-Sonian sites show a Southeast Asian influence that indicates an indigenous origin for the bronze-casting technology…..”
And I thought some posters said something about everything from Vietnam came from China? Look like they were dreaming.
thu nguyen
@Observer: I want to ask every China who believes that we depend on them for everything culture-related to reply me on these questions:
-If a people, after a millenia being enslaved by the Chinese, being forbidden from following their old customs or building a cultural heritage of their own, being forced to talk, write, act… like the Chinese, in short being forcibly converted into Chinese, still come out of that and self-identify themselves as non-Chinese, does that say something about them and their culture?
Our people and country cannot be destroyed for the same reason countries like Greece and Egypt cannot be destroyed, while a lot of (once) bigger, stronger, wealthier nations don’t last against the flow of history. Because it was once home to a strong native civilization, and somehow that is marked into the nation’s subsconsiousness and it makes this people strong. A lot of things, tangible and intangible, can be destroyed, but we never forget that we are Vietnamese, we are not Chinese, that we are “the South” and not “the North”, that we are different. Even if they’ve destroyed almost all our distant memories , we create things again, we create a new memory again.
-If our cultural inventions had such little value, why did Zhu Di (Minh Thanh To) have to order his army to destroy or rob us of everything that has something written on it?
And to thinks that many of the heroes who’ve noted that there are differences and fiercely protected those differences are people who have quite some Chinese blood in their veins as well (Tran kings, Nguyen Trai, for example)!
Dien Hong
Dear Observer,
I love reading your posts, I could see that you’ve really spent sometime to enhance your knowledge about our country, I am the same way. My email is huytran91@hotmail.com, please send me a message to that address so we can discuss things about our homeland. Thanks and hope to get your message soon. Sincerely, Huy