How Sanctions Can Work With Iran

December 15, 2010

By The Diplomat

Now let’s look at the issue of succession. Traditionally, nuclear powers moderate with time when they understand the responsibility of having a nuclear arsenal. In Iran’s case, while the Iranian people might be moderate, if the Revolutionary Guard controls the nuclear arsenal, and if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei* dies, it’s safe to assume that the Revolutionary Guard is going to have a veto power over the next Supreme Leader. In this case, instead of creating a cycle of moderation, this would create a cycle of radicalization, which could adversely affect domestic society inside Iran, as well as Iranian behavior toward its neighbours. This is because with the nuclear weapon, Iran would just become increasingly confident.

I’d also argue that what causes war in the Middle East isn’t oil, it’s not shortages of water. What it is, is when one side is over-confident and blunders into a conflict. I worry much less about the United States launching a strike on Iran’s nuclear programme than I do about an overconfident Iran that misjudges a red line and sets us down a cascade into conflict.

How optimistic are you that a solution can be found to the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme?

I’m pessimistic that there’s any country out there that has the will to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Simply put, I don’t see the diplomacy working because I don’t believe Iran is negotiating with sincerity. Second of all, I don’t believe the United States is willing to launch military strikes. And I also don’t believe that Israel has the military capability to launch strikes on Iran.

The worst case scenario would just be the uncertainty if Iran develops a breakout capability, but doesn’t break out. If Iran, in other words, puts itself in a similar position as Japan is now. This isn’t to draw moral equivalency between Japan and Iran—there is no moral equivalency between the two because Japan is a responsible government. In contrast, what worries the United States especially is the ideology that underpins the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is the co-author of 'Eternal Iran' (Palgrave, 2005) and 'Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran' (2001).

*Thank you to those readers who pointed out our mis-type of Khomenei, who was of course Iran's first Supreme Leader.