The Diplomat's inaugural student essay contest winner Calvin Wong writes about Chinese economic growth - and wins a trip to Japan to help us cover the APEC summit.
Fifteen years ago, APEC leaders meeting in Japan called for joint action ‘to ensure the region’s economic prosperity is sustainable.’ But is it realistic to believe that APEC’s largest member, China, can grow rapidly and sustainably?
In 1978, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, frustrated by Mao Zedong’s class struggle-inspired politics, embarked on a series of economic reforms that helped China open up to the world. These reforms fuelled China’s dramatic economic rise over the past 32 years, while forming the foundation for China’s deeply-rooted belief in rapid growth. Subsequently reinforced by Zhu Rongji’s internationalization of China’s economic system and stewardship of the country into the World Trade Organization, and underscored by current President Hu Jintao’s declaration of a minimum 8 percent GDP growth rate, the Chinese leadership has always operated under the principle of 'get rich now — all other priorities can be taken care of later. Indeed, while China’s ruthless, seemingly single-minded pursuit of growth has produced an unprecedented annual GDP rise of 9.5 percent since Deng's reforms were initiated, many observers doubt if the concept of sustainability is really commensurate with the country's goals.
The reality is, fortunately, far removed from such perceptions. Deng’s true genius lay in his recognition that any economic reforms had to be sustainable, in the sense that they had to provide tangible benefits to the people. Part of Deng’s economic development strategy was to ensure that China would achieve the per capita GDP of a medium-developed country by 2050.
The country is arguably on its way to achieving this, with per capita GDP this year estimated at US$3,700, placing it in the middle tier of countries. Furthermore, while rapid economic growth was the only pragmatic way out for China in 1978, the current leadership has acknowledged the negative consequences of current economic development. Hu adjusted China’s economic development policy when he took over in 2003, defining the paramount task for the government and party as 'the building of a harmonious society'.
Sustainability, the Chinese way
The 'harmonious society' concept stresses that the key to sustainable, long-term growth was social justice. It emphasizes the necessity of reforms in socio-economic legislation, environmental conservation and even politics, meaning the government would have to position itself as not merely the driver of the Chinese economy, but as a provider of tangible public services and defender of rights amongst the various social groups.
Hu’s concept of sustainability is made even more relevant by the fact that China is arguably at a critical stage of development. Rapid socio-economic growth has given rise to a strong middle class, which can be further separated into new social groups such as private entrepreneurs, businessmen and professionals. And, with an increasingly large role and stake in China’s growth, they've demanded greater participation in this growth. Building on a 2004 constitutional amendment that formalized the right to own private property, the Chinese government adopted a Property Law in 2007 that made significant steps toward providing legal protection for the private economy. (This appears to be part of a larger legal movement that aims to strengthen the rule of law of China).
Photo Credit: The Diplomat
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Arthur Lo
Mr Chan,
A bit of prelim background – I’m a Chinese-Briton living in London.
I do agree that the article is a very well-researched and written piece. What I do find issues with, however, is how you choose to conflate such an objective piece of analysis with inflammatory nationalist rhetoric. When other commentators offered their views, you decide to take offence for absolutely no valid reason, branding everyone who disagreed with you a ‘bigot’ without a detailed look at their opinion. Mr Livermore’s comment on Nov 16, for example, does not display ‘bigotry’ or ‘hate’ in any way, shape or form. He was merely stating that the current CCP regime may not fully realise China’s potential. You then decided that he was trying to smear the Chinese nation and launched into a three-post rant against slights real or imagined.
I especially take offence at several of your dubious comments.
Your reference to how ethnic Chinese people will always defend a CCP led regime, likening them to Germans under the rule of Nazis, strikes me as particularly insensitive to the victims of that period of history.
Your reference to human rights being used as an excuse to not deport prisoners is, of course, correct. However, as a law student, I can tell you positively that it did not stem from a desire to humiliate China.Canadian law or the European Convention of Human Rights forbid the deportation of people to states where they could be executed or tortured. In fact, apart from the US, no developed western state is backwards enough to retain the death penalty.
I do not for one moment believe that the ethnic Chinese people of Taiwan, Singapore, or the ethnic Chinese diaspora around the world of which I am a member, integrated as citizens of various countries, are as uncritical of the current state of China or the CCP regime as you wrote. Your reference to nuclear warfare between China and the rest of the world makes you nothing more than one of the ‘fanatics’ that you so deplore.
What we need is a balanced, factual and unemotional assessment of the state of Chinese politics, economy and society. What we absolutely have no place for is mindless nationalistic bombast. I suggest you learn from Mr Wong, the article’s author, on how to debate in a rational manner.
In any case, every time a fanatically pro-PRC commentator hits the forum, one can usually reasonably suspect that the MSS-funded ‘internet brigades’ are at work. Are you going to sink to their level, Mr Chan?
You mentioned the German Nazis and Japanese fascists in your comments. Do you know that fanatical nationalism, coupled with paranoid insecurity about the status of their country, are some of the key characteristics of far-right or fascist political movements?
If your comments, rather than the very good article above, reflect the true state of mind of the average citizen of the PRC, which after reading comments like yours on countless forums I rather suspect is the case, then I wish absolutely NO PART in it, Chinese ethnicity or not. It reminds me, in fact, why I remain a proud citizen of the UK, despite all the hype about economic growth in China.
regards,
Arthur Lo
milton
@Mr. Chan,
In your reply to Livermore, you described perfectly why I say the Chinese Government, because of their flawed diplomatic policy, has put itself into a trap.
You mumbled about the Japanese people, under Tojo, being “conformist” and how the “majority of Germans were [although] not Nazi, followed the Nazi and fought for their nation.”
You illogically conclude that “the Chinese regardless [if] they are members of CCP or not, will defend China with flesh, blood and determination.”
You chose two perfect examples of nations that blindly followed a one-party dictatorship. We all know what happened to them. Are you implying that the Chinese people will be the third historical example who blindly follow the policy that leads to their “Armageddon”?
If the Chinese people want to follow in the footsteps of the German people and their Nazi Party; and the Japanese people and their fascist party, that’s OK with me. However, I believe the Chinese people will pay a heavy price for this mistake.
You question if “the US has the population depth to survive as a nation” in case of “Armageddon.”
You mean would enough people in US survive a nuclear exchange with China?
You raise an interesting point but not an important one. The war planners agree with Chairman Mao, there will always be people left after a nuclear war. The question is will they be illiterate peasants or techno-savvy workers?
The war planners in the US military know that China has a large population. They also know where China’s intellectual, business, cultural, and military centers and elites are concentrated – the major cities along the eastern coast.
It does not take a genius to design a nuclear blitz against this area. (Remember: the US refuses to agree to a “no-first-nuclear-strike” policy).
If there is a nuclear war with China, you can believe the US does not intend to leave anything standing. Nuclear war is the US’ strong suit. Don’t confuse the little wars in Iraq or Afghanistan as being fought by the “dream team.” Nuclear weapons are the US’ “dream team.”
Getting back to the results of “armageddon” – China’s physical-industrial and human-intellectual capacity will be wiped out; the remaining hundreds of million (leaderless) Chinese peasants running to Russia, Mongolia, Central Asia, etc. will later be rounded-up, reorganized (minus the CCP), and resettled in non-contiminated areas (in a fragmented China) working in new factories, again, making iPhones and Nike shoes for the new world market.
This scenario will happen because China does not have the intellectual leadership of a Chou Enlai or a military strategist of a Mao Tse-tung to prevent it.
China, with its current political and economic policies, is on a collision course with the world. China needs to build friends and allies. China is not doing that.
The Western world is not afraid of war – they already had two major ones. They have no fear in making China part of the third one.
Mr. Chan, you need to wake up to the situation that is developing. China is in danger and your silly, stereotypical Party arguments do not help.
Zlim
whilst i agree that john chan is pretty much acting as a CCP mouthpiece, your analysis of how war may pan out is pretty laughable also. leave war and tactics to real military people
milton
@Zlim,
What is (not) “pretty laughable” is that using Google search you find more than 186,000,000 hits for “US war against China” (“China war against the US” only 36,100,000 hits). Various scenarios, outcomes, objectives, etc. are being discussed, analyzed, debated regarding when, where, and how to wage war against China.
Mr/Ms Zlim, now why would there be that much information/interest about a war between the US and China?
US war against China – 186,000,000 hits
US war against Iran – 2,700,000 hits
US war against Russia – 4,700,000 hits
US war against Venezuela – 1,400,000 hits
US war against North Korea – 55,000,000 hits
Only a simpleton would ignore the signs and preparations for war against his country, but it would take a real asshole to find it “laughable.”
The 1898 book, “The Break-up of China: with an Account of its Present Commerce, Currency, Waterways, Armies, Railways, Politics, and Future Prospects” by Lord Charles Beresford was reprinted in Paperback – Jan 12, 2010. Why the interest, after a hundred years, in the “break-up” of China?
The movie “Red Dawn” remake (2010) pit a group of American high school students against the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) when China invades the US. The remake plays on what has been described as America’s fear of China’s rise and exploits the American public’s hysteria surrounding the possibilities of a Chinese economic takeover.
China is on the receiving end of some very negative publicity, propaganda, and disinformation. In many cases, China shoots itself in the foot and provides material for the Western propaganda mill.
China needs to get its act together, win friends, build alliances, and counter the negative image being cleverly drawn around her. If not, China will fight alone and the world will watch, with great interest, on the evening news.
Frank
milton:
There are far more Indian “rats leaving a sinking ship.”
Most of the Indians want to move to USA. However, only the rich ones can.
Most of those so called “wealthy” Chinese who steal money from the public want to move. China can move on a lot faster without them.
The real backbones of China are not leaving. They kept China moving forward for 5,000 years. They will keep China moving forward for another 5,000 years. In comparison, Indians will need a white master soon.
milton
@John Chan
On the same day you read an article that was “the best [you had] ever read on this site in terms of presentation, analysis and objectivity;” the South China Morning Post published an editorial (“Stormy waters as the US opens new ’sluice gate’ Where will all the hot money go?”) that came to a different conclusion.
Corrupt officials were using the influx of “hot money” as a source for their escape funds. The corrupt officials know that China’s economy is not sustainable.
John, it looks like “rats leaving a sinking ship.”
A few quote from Nov. 15 South China Morning Post edition:
“[. . .] the mainland is also surely but quietly witnessing massive outflows of capital, most of which flow into the developed countries and regions, US and Hong Kong among the top destinations.”
“One popular estimate often cited by the state media is that over the past 30 years, more than 4,000 officials had fled with a combined total of US$50 billion. Many more corrupt ones have made preparations by sending their spouses and children abroad – they are known as ‘naked officials’.”
“There have also been more reports of mainlanders buying up multi-million US dollar properties in the desirable neighbourhoods in London, New York, and Sydney and in the vineyards in southern France.
“One growing trend is that rich mainlanders would buy homes in those foreign cities where their children study, with mothers going along to cook for them.
“Tied to this trend is the third wave of emigrations by richer mainlanders. The first wave was in the 1970s, mainly in the form of illegal immigration to escape poverty, and the second wave was in the early 1990s, when mainly university students furthered their studies overseas.
“This third wave, which has been accelerating in the past few years, has got some mainland observers worried because compared with the previous two waves, the mainland’s best and elite are migrating to the United States, Canada and Europe, and they’re taking with them not only their money but their skills to seek a better quality of life.”
John Chan, does the writer of the article, Calvin Wong, have a Green Card? Will he return from his trip to Japan?
China will have to make fundamental changes in its political, legal, and social system in order to sustain a normal growth pattern. Tippy-toeing around the edges will not work.
John, broaden your reading material. It will help you develop a balanced view, otherwise, you will end up as one of Lenin’s “useful idiots.”
John Chan
@milton, “This is the best article I have ever read on this site in terms of presentation, analysis and objectivity.” was commenting on the writing talent only. I wanted to keep the spirit of the younger generation in China up for building a better China despite all those gloomy facts. Rome is not built in one day; there is a long hard road ahead to make China a decent China. No one is trying to whitewash the bad things happening in China, like the Japanese is whitewashing their WWII history and the Sankoku/Daioyu islets incident. But definitely as a Chinese I will do my best to correct any lies, fabricated facts, and distorted truth that are pumping out by the anti-China camp to smear and undermine China.
You can call me whining, “rats leaving a sinking ship.” just proves how the West is undermining China’s effort to clean up corruption. The West refused to cooperate and send those crooks back to China for their deserved punishment in the name of human rights. In fact the West wants to keep the trillion of dollars of those ill gotten money for themselves at the same time to maintain their specious moral high ground. BTW the West has been doing those unscrupulous businesses of sucking Chinese wealth for the last 150 years, HSBC is one of the best in that field.
I wish you could see things in bigger picture, instead of nitpicking.
John Chan
@milton, if you don’t agree with any commenter’s comment, just state your own comments. This is an Internet forum for people to practice freedom of speech without fear. Please do not degrade yourself, this site or other commenters by insulting other commenters with foul language.
milton
@John Chan
I don’t know if you have the opportunity to read the world’s press but it may come as a shock to you, China has a bad reputation.
For the last two decades, China preached that its rise was a peaceful one and it only wanted to be friends with love and warm kisses for everyone.
However, the last couple of years has shown China’s true character.
The following are only a sampling of headlines from the last month:
China The Bully – 10 Nov 2010 … China: As its economic clout grows, China’s diplomacy gets uglier, preferring crass bullying to gentle persuasion.
“China turns belligerent again”
10 Nov 2009 … After appearing to relent, China has stepped up its anti India rhetoric over the Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh once again.
China’s bully tactics – China’s belligerent stance toward Japan may be a sign of things to come in Asia.
Bully in the China shop – Hindustan Times
Beijing is picking too many fights with too many countries for the world’s comfort.
Why China thinks it can go for America’s jugular and how Obama can …
China The Bully Declares Economic War On Japan – Business Exchange 26 Sep 2010 …
» Rising Powers China: A bully like Wilhelmine Germany? By Roger Scher.
China’s ‘aggressive’ buildup called worry – Washington Times
… China’s military buildup is worrying to both the US military and American allies in Asia, the commander of US forces in the Pacific told …
As India dithers, Beijing gets belligerent
Australians fear war with China, says Lowy Institute survey -
Is China gearing up to start World War III? | ZDNet -
The Coming China-India Conflict: Is War Inevitable – http://www.time.com
The US looming trade war with China –
China and Japan on verge of war for islands – English pravda.ru
A Third Sino-Japanese War? | DailyMarkets.com –
John Chan, China is doing something wrong. The world is uniting against it and China has no friends or allies. Is this all the fault of the West?
megakids – Singapore
John, I support your views and your good intention. Don’t waste time with the like of “milton” in this discussion forum.
Jessica
John, strongly support you and you points of view. As an ethnic Chinese in UK, I feel ashamed to have those ’so-called chinese’ ranting and slandering a country that he may have never ever experienced, for which I doubt his rights to comment. I agree with Megakid that it is pointless to waste your time with the arrogant and mindless cohort in this discussion forum. Bark is worse than bite.
SE962582C
There are NO “Commenters” (Sic.), only “Commentators”.
Some-one, a certain and a particular person had indeed already tried this and this one upon one and oneself once and recently.
Strictly speaking there are NO SUCH THINGS as the so-called “Foul language”, only “Profanities” and “Obscenities”.
This is in reality probably NOT an (a typical, if at all, ) Internet Forum.
This is most certainly NOT the Place to so-called quote “Practise” unquote so-called quote “Freedom of Speech” and unquote either.
One’s purely personal opinion is that if any persons are offended or insulted, so long as and as long as that there are not wilful verbal abuses nor personal attacks, done knowingly and “with malice of aforethought”, then SO BE IT.
One DOES think that some-one, a certain and a particular person had gone too far, and it is in fact THE DUTY of any right-minded person to HALT and to STOP the NONSENSE and this NONSENSE from proceeding for any further, Here and Now, right now and for once and for all.
This has to HALT and to STOP.
Drive by
@milton:
Foreign investment pouring into China far outpace anything the corrupt Chinese officials and rich Chinese could ever possibly bring out of China. On the other hand, the fortune the super-riches transferred from the U.S. to the overseas tax-heaven is beyond anything you can imagine.
Similarly, rich Chinese invest in overseas properties, while foreigners invest in Chinese properties. In fact, a large chunk of Chinese real estate is owned by foreigners, especially overseas Chinese. This two way traffic is normal economic activity, and only China-bashing foreign media will twist this into a so-called “sign of Chinese collapse”.
By the same token, many talented Chinese emigrant to developed countries, while many foreign experts and talented Chinese who studied overseas come to work in China (not necessarily live in China). Far more technologies were brought into China than being brought out of China. Again, this exchange of ideas and expertise is how science and technology develop, not some sign of “China collapse”.
Milton, instead of repeating what you read in China-bashing media, you should learn how to think independently.
John Chan
This is the best article I have ever read on this site in terms of presentation, analysis and objectivity. The analysis is actually based on the facts of China in the past 32 years, present and direction it wants to go in the future; not presumption based on cold war sloganism. Reading the article give one confidence for the future of China as there is a real sense that China is changing for the better. By the end of the article, one can proudly yell “Yes, China can do it” with heads held high and fists in the air.
If the intelligence, pragmatism, foresight, and determination of the author represents the norm of his generation, China’s future surely is bright and long lasting. Maybe the 21st century is the China’s century as the West has said.
The author and his peer must have confidence in themselves, and develop China in their own way and their own pace, never distracted by the mindless banter of those in the anti-China camp.
Lawrence Livermore
Mr. Chan
Do you believe you’re building support for Chinese people with your knee-jerk support for all PRC’s policies?
The Chinese people are not the PRC.
The PRC is not the Chinese people no matter how the government tries to confuse the two.
The PRC played a necessary historical role in China’s history but it just provided the foundation for China’s true future. It is just one of many short-lived dynasties in China’s long history.
The PRC is very similar to the Sui Dynasty. Durning the Sui period, the Chinese people suffered but that dynasty died out and was followed by the Tang Dynasty, China’s greatest period.
China’s greatness will come after the PRC.
Don’t keep confusing Westerners with the PRC and the Chinese people.
People in Canada know the difference. Don’t make things difficult.
John Chan
@Lawrence Livermore, you even can’t stand I said something nice about a Chinese youth who wrote a nice and objective article? Why can all those anti-China bigots post lies to smear China, and I cannot post corrections against those lies? Why don’t you ask those anti-China bigots and yourself, why do they have such deep burning hate against China? What actually has happened to them or their families so that they have such bad faith in China and are badmouthing China so badly? Don’t they know what they are doing is bring the world closer to the Armageddon? Lawrence, for haven’s sake, for whatever the reason, anti-China rhetoric is not going to make the world any better. It is simply turning the clock back to the cold war era.
What has happening in Canada, the US and the Europe tells me how deeply rooted prejudice the West has against China. Jason Miks’ disturbing view on China is the norm in the West. I just worry the future of humanity due to the mindless rhetoric pumping out by the anti-China camp.
Lawrence the anti-China bigots on this site just want China to fail, they use CCP as an excuse, so they can undermine China with moral authority. I do not know the future of PRC, but I guess you want to play God to decide the future for China like the arrogant West wants to do what they have done since first Opium War.
John Chan
@Lawrence Livermore, have you seen the pictures showing how the Japanese looked like in Hiroshima and Nagasaki after the US nuked the places? Do you want to live into 90’s healthy? All those anti-China bigots are doing is to make everyone of us burnt like those Japanese in Hiroshima and Nagasaki after being nuked by the US. The anti-China bigots won’t make you live healthy. If you don’t know the horror of war, go and visit the nuclear bomb site and the museum in Hiroshima, those horror scene will bring you back from anti-China obscenity, and make you a better man, and you would be at peace with yourself and everybody else. Damn it, we don’t need war. Those anti-China fanatics must be stopped for the humanity’s sake.
John Chan
@Lawrence Livermore, you said “Don’t keep confusing Westerners with the PRC and the Chinese people.” But do you know that majority Germans were not Nazi, but they followed the Nazi and fought for their nation anyway, so will the Chinese regardless they are members of CCP or not, they will defend China with flesh, blood and determination.
Japanese are conformist and perfectionist, that’s why the Japanese did such thorough atrocity in Asia during the WWII under the leadership of maniac Hideki Tojo.
Let me give you some facts in case there is an Armageddon, Japan and Vietnam do not have the strategy depth to survive as a nation. I wonder the US has the population depth to survive as a nation too. India is only 1/3 of China’s size and lacks the industrial and technology depth; maybe Dalits could reverse the caste order in India after the Armageddon. China has the numerical advantages over all other nations. If these cold facts could not wake up the self-delusion of the anti-China camp, only God can help humanity.
Terence Hew
A very well written article, deserving of being judged the winner.