China could yet become a superpower. But a surging economy can’t mask social strains that only political reform can address.
There’s an old Chinese fable that was the inspiration behind Andrew Nathan and Robert Ross’s 1990s book, The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress.
Centuries ago, a king whose city was about to be attacked decided the only thing he could do to save it was to order the gates be flung open. He then told the attacking force that the city was empty and that they were welcome to enter. Suspicious that the king’s words were a trick to tempt them into an ambush, the enemy forces decided to move on and the king’s empty city was saved.
These days, many looking at China from the outside see its towering economic statistics and assume that this growing wealth isn’t just about money—that it’s about power as well. After all, a country with growth rates in excess of 10 percent per annum that’s now the world’s second-largest economy, the largest holder of foreign reserves, the largest exporter and largest consumer of energy—surely it’s also a geopolitical powerhouse?
But take a look inside the gates, beyond the headline economic figures, and two points emerge that cast doubt on this notion of overwhelming strength.
One is the amount of money that’s being spent on internal security. According to its official budget, China spent about $80 billion on defence in 2009 (although the United States and others would argue that even this massive figure underestimates the true scale). But more remarkably, it spent almost as much—$75 billion—on internal security.
Keeping the lid on Xinjiang and Tibet has clearly required massive amounts of central government cash, as has policing China’s restless provinces and dealing with public unrest. Indeed, those who venture outside the grand cities of Shanghai and Beijing see a country with surprising levels of fractiousness and casual violence. On a recent visit to the central city of Xian, for example, I was intrigued to see an enormous sign over a side street bearing the words (in English and Chinese) `Centre for Receiving Petitions.’ It seems there are enough disgruntled citizens in the city and the surrounding areas to warrant a whole street to deal with them.
The second indicator of trouble ahead is the way elite leaders themselves are speaking. Yes, it’s true that Politburo members and their local equivalents fill their public pronouncements with rosy statistics. Like their Maoist and Dengist forebears, they live in a world still infected with Utopianism—things will always get better, the harvests will get bigger, the heaven on earth promised under Marxism (albeit now called Socialism with Chinese characteristics) will be realised one day (even if that day has to be pushed further and further into the future).
Photo Credit: World Economic Forum
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FanDuCai
It might be months late, but it is nonetheless worth noting that what those Communists say and what they do behind the scenes are two entirely different matters. I’m Chinese too, and I can’t for the love of me understand why China and India, two great ancient and continuing civilizations, can’t get along as good neighbors. I’m wondering why Beijing is sending secret agents to Indian separatists in the south? Isn’t that exactly what China is railing about–the CIA involved in destabilizing other countries? China always resorts to historical maps when claiming contested territories, but that’s not entirely right. If historical occupation can be used as basis, then Mongolians can claim damn near half of the planet due to the conquests of Genghis and Kublai Khan. This macho posturing I can only attribute to one thing: Communists being blinded by their own success, and the resulting hubris from 2 decades of white-hot economic growth. The great game ain’t over, so let’s not get our heads too full of hot air, my dear brothers.
david kerr
The Chinese won’t fight because of the one child family. Losing him means a family losing their retirement plan. These spoiled brats are treated like kings. The PLA is a good place to invest to improve technology, like airliners spun off jets.
John Chan
@TheZeitgeist, yes, China has its up and down through its thousands years of history. When China was strong it roamed around, when it was weak, it got kicked badly. But China is resilient and tough; in human history, China is the only great nation that is still around and feared. All other great powers, Romans, British Empire, Mongols, Imperial Japan, etc. all faded away. In order to recover its confidence, China challenged the US with inferior weapons and courage in Korea, broke the US arrogance and forced the US into retreat. Unfortunately the courage and confidence of China shown in Korea War is not enough to maintain the integrity of its sovereignty. It seems another test is needed to show who is better as you challenged “If Chinese are not careful about who they piss off and why, Ass-beating of the millenium.” As expressed in the China Anthem, Chinese are prepared and willing to let our flesh and blood forge into our new Great Wall!, TheZeitgeist, are you prepared and do you have the same determination as the Chinese? Or you are just a paper tiger?
TheZeitgeist, you sound menacing and full of racial prejudice, are you a member of KKK or the Fans of Sarah Palin? Those clubs are no good to mental health; they are bad for the peace and prosperity of the world. Anyhow if you are an American (the US), the existence of the US is too short for a nation to be proven itself in the historical timeframe. A Russian Prognosticator said the US would break into 6 countries.
Sunay mahajan
Hello,hi,namaskar to all my brothers n sisters..
There’s a lot of misunderstanding in chinese about india.
We indians never hate anyone for any reasons.
We still hav fans who support portugal n england in FIFA, those countries who had ruled us once.
We dont hate chinese people, but the chinese govrnment.
Bcoz it is expansionist n we as a neighbour have to be alert..
And another thing we never hate chinese culture..
Take for instance chinese food,eaten by each of us..
So this enemity about china has come only in this 2 years because of its latest issues on army..
jai hind
John Chan
As a Chinese I am confused too, why are there so many rhetoric full of rancor towards China seems coming from Indians and Vietnamese? Are we, the Indian and Chinese, being fooled by the treacherous Westerners again? Would you accept the comments from jimabc99 on Oct 15, 2010 at 3:03 pm as sincere and genuine explanation of China? And change your prejudice against Chinese government simply because it is run by a majority party named CCP (there are non CCP parties in China occupying important government posts.)? Would you accept that Japan is the aggressor in the Diaoyu islet incident and stop labeling China as expansionist? Would you accept that the modernization of China’s military is to prevent China itself from being plunged again by the Japan and the West into the suffering it has endured in the last 150 years? Would you accept China’s military buildup is to counter overwhelming firepower possessed by the US and Japan, particular the US keeps on harassing China with its nuclear aircraft carrier battle groups? If you and your compatriots do accept, long live the friendship of India and China, if your answer to any one of these questions a No or a maybe. Then your words ring hollow, it will be a long rocky road ahead of us to build a peaceful and trustworthy relationship between India and China.
captainjohann
Hi John,
Your comments are something which made me feel sorry and anxious.You are a much bigger economy than India and India stand nowhere when it comes to infrastructure.But we donot feel jealous but feel as an Asian that another Asian country has achieved wonders.But now go back and you will see we Asians loved japan when it cloberred russia. But the rape of nanking by Japan and you may not know the name of Dr.Kotnis. Yes He is an Indian Doctor who spent time in Nanking and helped the Chinese against the wishes of British rulers.Again think of the days when USA was having the kaumintang clique as P5 member in the Security council and how India faught vociferously for Communist china to be made full member because I think you are young and you donot read history and you read American propaganda only and American think tank papers.It is India which led non aligned group to support full membership for China but today how you repay a nation of 1 billion and your neighbour because you cannot even think of India as another great asian nation rising.Again go back in history and do you remeber the names of Fa-Hien or Phuang Psuang? They are the Chinese scholars who came to India and studied at Nalanda.Now there are 3 lkh Indian students in China studying medicine while there are 15000 Chinese students in Indian technical institutions.But you have complex about western nations and your young prefer the western and American learning centres just like our young. But we have open media and we donot only follow American experts.We also read peoles daily along with NY times.I want you to show maturity of a bigger economy instead of thinking about our media which rightly points out your Army’s incursion in lADAKH AND aRUNACHAL pRADESH which you have occupied with your superior military might and which your ligitimacy comes from your annexation of tibet which your country called an “AUTONOMOUS REGION”. The recent politicking by your foreign office in kashmir by stapling visa which your nation started doing only in 2008 shows, your behaviour is changing proportionatelly to your economic might.This naturally worries India. I agree US is supporting Taiwan regime but not India but US cannot fight even ragtag Taliban in Afghanistan and running away and do you think it will fight for Taiwan. You are usning this ruse to strenthen your army beyond your border projection.
CORDELIA L
As a Chinese senior high student, I do hope that China will get quite strong one day. But yes, I am confused a lot too about how strong China is for the time being. We have really modern city while there are still many poverty stricken areas(e.g.mountainous areas, we get plenty of them).The poverty gap is getting worse, not only in China,but also around the world.We must find a solution to tackle this problem.
BernieMc
Mr. Chan; You said, “… change your prejudice against Chinese government simply because it is run by a majority party named CCP (there are non CCP parties in China occupying important government posts.)” Please Mr. Chan, you have dropped your facade – looking inwards for decades has taken its’ toll – we know, very well, that there is just one CCP or, perhaps, there are many sub-CCPs throughout the country, but they are of the one CCP nevertheless.
You must be aware that many non-Chinese writing here are actually living and working in the PRC.
Huang
Conventional wisdom or informations disseminated were 98 percent distorted. It is extremely difficult and most of time taken as the bad guy’s words against the good guys true statements. This is exactly the prevailing atmosphere in the world of medias and information. Even though the World has already entered a new phase of truth seeking revolution in which individuals,elements,groups,and nations no longer have the privilege to hide behind a curtain or skirts because they are pressumed to be a good guy when in fact they the crooks who needs to dealt with while the good,stable minded,kind,and just plain human are being portaited as dictators,mad,unstable,or not trust worthy. In times,those who take informations spreading around at face value will get a lesson on how not to be blinded by their own urge to be accepted as one among crooks. As for those who like to use a cheap monetery amount to relate to another human being, they just reveal a thing or two about themselves already(they will sell themselves for a price,just like crooks and liers). No offense crooks,you are what what you are and mankind will always look you down.