Reports of the death of the PLA’s naval expansion are exaggerated. Any lull in development is likely to prove temporary.
At a conference last summer, a respected China scholar stated flatly that the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) halted development of its submarine fleet after taking delivery of the last of its Russian-built Kilo-class diesel attack boats in 2006. From such leading indicators he concluded that Beijing can do little more than issue ‘hollow threats’ against US naval operations in Asia. And it’s ‘hyperbole’ to think the Chinese military can contest US Navy access to regional waters.
This autumn, in a similar vein, some maritime specialists in places like Washington and Newport have taken to pointing out that the PLAN has built no new destroyers for its surface fleet for five years. Such reports imply, without quite coming out and saying it, that Beijing's naval project has stalled or been deliberately terminated. If so, other seafaring nations like the United States and Japan can relax their guard, sparing taxpayers the expense and hazards of competing with China on the high seas.
We beg to differ.
To be sure, there’s a grain of truth to the speculation. Consider the no-new-submarines claim. The authoritative website GlobalSecurity.org shows that overall PLAN submarine totals remained nearly flat between 2007-2010. The subsurface fleet increased only marginally during this interval, rising from 62 to 63 boats. New construction barely outpaced the retirement of decrepit Cold War-era hulls.
But this is a momentary lull. Once the PLAN finishes shedding old assets, the submarine fleet will resume its upward trajectory. Estimates indicate that the navy will add 10 modern Song- and Yuan-class diesel subs by 2015 and an additional 10 by 2020. If such projections are accurate, the fleet will be 78 boats strong. Moreover, this leaves aside the possibility, fanned by photos now circulating among China-watchers, that the PLAN is preparing to unveil a new class of diesel boats based partly on older craft, partly on Russian designs.
By contrast, the Naval Vessel Register lists 54 US nuclear-powered attack submarines in commission, only 60 percent of which are stationed in the Pacific. This total may shrink given the strains on American acquisition budgets. Boat for boat, the US Navy undersea force remains superior to its emerging rival, but the weight of numbers is shifting increasingly toward China. This will remain true as long as the Chinese Navy remains concentrated in East Asia and the US Navy remains encumbered with worldwide commitments, attenuating the numbers available for deployment to any one trouble spot.
Next, consider surface combatants. A casual glance at Jane's Fighting Ships shows that destroyer construction has indeed ceased for now. Between 2001 and 2005, the PLAN laid down six guided-missile destroyer (DDG) keels, namely two Type 051C Luzhous, two Type 052B Luyang Is, and two Type 052C Luyang IIs. DDGs represent the core of Chinese surface action groups and can screen major platforms — Russian-built Sovremenny destroyers or, eventually, aircraft carriers — against air and submarine attack.
Photo Credit: US Navy
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Kiemhao
China’s peaceful rise has created lots of negative sentiments in Asia and in the West. It is time for nations in Asia to realistically face the 21st century without holding on to misguided and out-dated prejudice against China. China will make constructive contributions to the World community.China threat,china’s military intentions,assertive china, Chinese arrogance are all recent tunes played and sang again around Asia. A well equipped(military)China will help keep the Asia pacific region safe and secured. A stronger China will support the development ia Asia and the World. Time has changed,empires rise and fall,China has return to its path of rejuvenation and no jealously or fear would stop China from moving forward. China is not interested in pursuing super power status(look at the former Soviet Union,Japan,Germany,and now the U.S.). As China grow economically,China must improve its defenses. Remember,China in the past(ancient)was already a great military nation. It should not be a surprise to see China emerging as a military nation in the new century.
harry
this is just the old trick americans like to use, they play the Chins threat card when ever its domestic problem rises, and play down China’s military capabilities when there is tension with China, to boost morale and confidence.
harry
John Chan
Cihna’s best ship currently is the 052C destroyer nick name Chinese Aegis this is because 052C destroyer has the same capabilities of american Aegis destroyers. and china is also building a 10,000 ton destroyer for its future carrier fleet, this destroyer may be a mass produced model. China’s new 041 sub completed few days ago is also pretty advanced from what Ive seen in public US reports its atleast 7 times quieter than the kilo class of Russia(kilo class sub’s nick name is called the black hole). just few days ago in the visit of Russian president to China, Russia agreed to transfer the production line of modern longrang super-sonic bomber with advanced anti-ship capabilities. this also boost the PLA’s ability to saturate american defence system.
Mark
It is high time for Japan to rearm against the Marxist Chinese menace. Democracies to not threaten their neighbors. What are the Chineses going to do with the excess male population?
Japan must wake up.
This is from an American.
Michael
Democracies threaten the entire world!!! Which countries have military bases around every corner of the globe? Which countries export war and revolution? It’s western imperialism and the useful shes who support them that poses a threat to world peace!!!
illusionz
Japan is waking up, the deployment of Japan Armed forces on the disputed islands and talking step to improve relations with India (China’s arch enemy) is the way to go.
FatBoy
Not only should Japan be rearmed, it should be given nuclear weapons. Japanese being the most revengeful people of the world and the only country to have been bombed by nuclear weapons, by China, they will bomb back China as soon as they have nukes!
John Chan
FatBoy, “Japanese being the most revengeful people of the world.” The US is the only one bombed Japan with two nukes. By your own logic, Japan should lob at least four (the additional two is for the return interest) nukes at the US to make it even as soon as the Japs get hold of any nukes. Don’t you think it is logical?
Justinian
I would like to hear opinions about the possibility of Japan embarking upon an aggressive program of rearmament, i.e., the full development of all her military forces. Surely Japan is capable of doing so, and given the strategic challenge posed by a rising China, it may be in her national interest to do so, or to at least engage in a serious national debate about it, in concert with Washington. Although Americans will never forget Japanese treachery at Pearl Harbor and the long, bitter war fought against Japan, Japan is perceived as a close and reliable ally now, and I think it is high time she begin to assume full responsibility for her own security.
Henry
Japan is a client state and under the colonial control of America.Full Stop.Hiroshima and Nagasaki has destroyed its arrogant and confident spirit.All occupied by American bases with a slavish mentality to America.Good for America.American orders will be obeyed without question.
Hekie
Japan holds american bonds(some billions).And China,too.
Don’t be ungrateful to the country that supports your policies or you will find yourself alone in Asia, Idiotic american.
Japan is the only country in Asia that openly supports you.If you lose them,you are alone there.
Also,if Japan is a “client State”,,Germany and South Korea are also “client States”.
John Chan
Aside from the USA’s 12 aircraft carrier battle groups, Japan has 2 flat tops, more than 40 Aegis warships right now. The best ship china has is 12 Type 054A by the end of this year as projected by GlobalSecurity.org. It will be lucky for China to just catch up with Japan’s current naval strength by the year 2020. If China does not make an effort to build up its naval strength, China’s navy will be only good enough to meet the quote of an USA navy office who said “finishing off China’s navy will be an interesting breakfast exercise.” Meanwhile Xinhuanet reported yesterday, Japan has effective control over Diaoyu islands, Japan Coast Guard is using forces to expel any Chinese civilian boats getting close to 40 miles of the Daioyu islands right now. At the moment China does not have effective means to counter Japan’s aggression on its sovereign, with its current economic strength, China must build up its naval strength until Japan, the USA and nations surrounding can be reasoned with a peaceful and fair settlement on the disputes areas. If China fails to achieve that goal, the leadership in China will go down in history as good as Li Hongzhang.
Justinian
True enough, but imagine if Japan decided to completely rearm and develop all her military capability, in league with the U.S. This would surely present China with a formidable array of military power and could counter Chinese hegemonic goals in the Pacific. Do you agree?
John Chan
Yes, you are right, the USA and Japan are already out gun China miles ahead. If Japan rearms itself further more, I guess that not only blaming Chinese hegemony is totally a joke; it will refresh USA the memory of Pearl Harbor disaster as well. Of course China will do its best to defend itself this time. Maybe the nations surrounding China will welcome Japan’s protection against China’s hegemony.
David
That’s some wishful thinking. If Japan becomes fully independent militarily, it won’t be so inclined to align its policies with the U.S.’s. Do you know why the western world has forgiven Germany but the Asians still haven’t the Japanese? That’s because Japan still denies much of its responsibility in starting its rampage across Asia. Instead, they portray themselves as victims of American colonial aggression, and they were forced to strike back due to American embargoes. Don’t think they’ve forgotten about Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Charles
What’s all the fuss about China’s long overdue military modernisation? It just wants to keep its SLOC secure and open, which also helps to facilitate trade for the rest of Asia. Is that any different from what the US and Japan’s own strategic interests? Well, ‘China Threat’ proponents ought to note that the US has started more wars in the world in the last 50 years than any other country. Japan who is ambivalent about its wartime past, is suddenly supposed to ’stand up’ against an imginary ‘China Threat’? Who gave them that mandate? There’s an old Chinese saying which goes like this: ‘If one hasn’t done anything evil, one does not fear the knock on the door at midnight’. Well, Japan should re-visit its ugly past objectively and understand once and for all why many in Asia don’t bat an eyelid on memorial days for Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Anyway, for a country which borders more than 12 countries (at least 4 who are nuclear armed), it’s understandable that China would want to enhance its military capabilities. America has the luxury of having the longest undefended border (with Canada)in the world and to the South, it has a friendly neighbour like Mexico, and yet at any one time it has 5-7 carrier battle groups operational around the world…paranoia or neo-imperialism…go figure guys…
moribguy
Don’t you think the Japanese could not explain the contradiction on the Daoyu island, they took it during the trun of the century and then the Russian took the Kuriles Island. They now demanded the return of the Kuriles island but refused to return the Daoyu! What F…. logic ?
xinhui
“Estimates indicate that the navy will add 10 modern Song- and Yuan-class diesel subs by 2015 and an additional 10 by 2020. If such projections are accurate, the fleet will be 78 boats strong.”
Who’s indication/estimation? The thing about PLA watching — we don’t know what we don’t know.