Reports of the death of the PLA’s naval expansion are exaggerated. Any lull in development is likely to prove temporary.
At a conference last summer, a respected China scholar stated flatly that the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) halted development of its submarine fleet after taking delivery of the last of its Russian-built Kilo-class diesel attack boats in 2006. From such leading indicators he concluded that Beijing can do little more than issue ‘hollow threats’ against US naval operations in Asia. And it’s ‘hyperbole’ to think the Chinese military can contest US Navy access to regional waters.
This autumn, in a similar vein, some maritime specialists in places like Washington and Newport have taken to pointing out that the PLAN has built no new destroyers for its surface fleet for five years. Such reports imply, without quite coming out and saying it, that Beijing's naval project has stalled or been deliberately terminated. If so, other seafaring nations like the United States and Japan can relax their guard, sparing taxpayers the expense and hazards of competing with China on the high seas.
We beg to differ.
To be sure, there’s a grain of truth to the speculation. Consider the no-new-submarines claim. The authoritative website GlobalSecurity.org shows that overall PLAN submarine totals remained nearly flat between 2007-2010. The subsurface fleet increased only marginally during this interval, rising from 62 to 63 boats. New construction barely outpaced the retirement of decrepit Cold War-era hulls.
But this is a momentary lull. Once the PLAN finishes shedding old assets, the submarine fleet will resume its upward trajectory. Estimates indicate that the navy will add 10 modern Song- and Yuan-class diesel subs by 2015 and an additional 10 by 2020. If such projections are accurate, the fleet will be 78 boats strong. Moreover, this leaves aside the possibility, fanned by photos now circulating among China-watchers, that the PLAN is preparing to unveil a new class of diesel boats based partly on older craft, partly on Russian designs.
By contrast, the Naval Vessel Register lists 54 US nuclear-powered attack submarines in commission, only 60 percent of which are stationed in the Pacific. This total may shrink given the strains on American acquisition budgets. Boat for boat, the US Navy undersea force remains superior to its emerging rival, but the weight of numbers is shifting increasingly toward China. This will remain true as long as the Chinese Navy remains concentrated in East Asia and the US Navy remains encumbered with worldwide commitments, attenuating the numbers available for deployment to any one trouble spot.
Next, consider surface combatants. A casual glance at Jane's Fighting Ships shows that destroyer construction has indeed ceased for now. Between 2001 and 2005, the PLAN laid down six guided-missile destroyer (DDG) keels, namely two Type 051C Luzhous, two Type 052B Luyang Is, and two Type 052C Luyang IIs. DDGs represent the core of Chinese surface action groups and can screen major platforms — Russian-built Sovremenny destroyers or, eventually, aircraft carriers — against air and submarine attack.
Photo Credit: US Navy
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Kirk
Hey You guys!!!!!!
this thread is hillarious..lol..american imperialists…Japanses rampaging, US hypocrisy…yatta yatta…
Does it ever occur to all of you that your thoughts and perceptions are based by real insecurities and ENVY>>>YEAH ENVY!!!!!
Chinas on the rise economically..the worlds factory nearly all of the tallest buildings on eart, the most new car purchases, a burgeoning middle class with enormous buying power for the first time..ALL THIS AND////you guys toss all these ridiculous accusationa around like toys….
I guess at 61 Im just old schooll IOve seen wars my familt touched and affected by 2 of them..lost a grandfather Id never met..and all to defend some noinsense overseas or to defend that worthless nation France which has always reapid the US with scorn and vinegar and back stabs…
War especially war now aint fun guys…any major conflict between any major powers will quickly move toward “going nuclear” as nations will perceive that thier opponents arent out merely to win strategic objectives, but to annihilate their citizenry and will respond in kind…
so all this amatuerish tea part debate and tit for tat responses by you guys really ignores the main question…
‘Will any of us survive”
Im a former soldier…….I ve seen war
perhaps all of you might reconsider before tossing around idle chit chat and hurling accusations about nations you dont know..and whose perceptions have been shaped by YOUR nations media..just as mine has by OURS
Mass media distorts
Marshall Mccluhan
Eric
Little did you realize that china’s economy will collapse.
China has a severe local debt problem. Credit is stretched thin, and debts need to be payed. They are investing in projects with high cost low returns.
This means that they are going to run out of cash. When China’s middle class runs out of cash, things will crash. 2020, China’s internal loans default, the govt. will tax the middle class to repay them, middle class wont be able to cope, middle class buckles, govt. prints money, in order to do this, china’s already rising inflation goes into hyper inflation, chinese will need to put money in trucks in order to get basic goods.
China is unsustainable.
Im not envious of China. The U.S.A debt and deficits are easy to solve in comparison.
typhonnq
Eric,
You are not the only one who had passed such remarks “China economy will collapse”
“China will implode” “China economy is not sustainable”
These adverse remarks had been said many times over the last ten years. Until now, China economy is still booming and her foreign reserves keep on piling and exports are still growing at double digits.
You must understand, the Chinese Govt. own most of the major Industries and Banks and they can control the Chinese economy much better than most Western Economy.They can take drastic action when things are going wrong and they do not need to answer to anybody. There will be a time the Chinese economy will weaken but to collapse, I don’t think so.
To be honest with you, many people like to see China collapse; simply out of jealousy and fear.
samuel welsh
back down china do not be foolish true patriots of china are revolutionaries.
Eddy
David, you are right on!
Why do you think we ASEAN are silently more concern about Japan than China.
TRACK RECORD! In history China during the era of Admiral ChengHe had travelled the seven seas but she did not colonized one single nation unlike the WEST and JAPAN.
Diayo and Sakhalin and Kuril islands dispute today are evidences of her past colonial aggression. These do not belongs to Japan originally!
Japan is an island state with NO RESOURCES! So if she remilitarized, what does that remind us of! Dont forget apart from Pearl Harbor, she attacked China unprovoked and forced the Qing China to cease Taiwan and the surrounding islands including Diayo to her as COMPENSATION for her aggression.
So what if some of the nations China trade with today are dictatorial in nature, she sign and promise all nations whom she has diplomatic relation a policy of NON INTERFERENCE.
In the case of Kuril and Sakhalin, US President Roosevolt and PM Churchill promised Russian Stalin their support for the return of these island and recognition if she joined the war against Japan in 1945. So what the hell is Hilliary Clinton doing when she pledged US support against the RUSSIAN. Got charm by a younger man, Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara exactly like her husbard in the case of Levinsky and reneged on USA PROMISE. Haha!
Navin
China does not have the capablities to catch up with Japan in a decade. She should instead focus on economic development. By 2020 her economy would be far above Japan and possibly on the same level with America, according to several projections. Then she would be able to at least catch up with Japan. Of course, she should continue developing her navy steadily (But not too rapidly) without attracting too much attention
See the following website for projections of the Chinese economy:
(http://www.csmonitor.com/Money/Stefan-Karlsson-s-Blog/2010/0706/When-will-China-s-economy-become-bigger-than-ours)
Hongjian
In the light of the current balance of military power, that is definitely shifted against China in both quality and quantity of the Japanese Navy alone, it is high time for China to boost the development of her long-range anti-ship weaponary in both airforce and second artillery corps.
If the DF-21D ASBM rumours are true, then this would be China’s trump-card in any naval engagement against the combined japanese and US fleet, while being aided by Type 022 Houbei-class FAC’s, submarines and strike-aircrafts.
China still should pursue the peaceful way of negotiation and diplomacy and avoid stepping into diplomatic traps laid by the US, like in this Diaoyu/Senkaku incident, that gave the already trigger-happy US the opportunity to tout about how they would like to get involved into a sino-japanese conflict over a few barren islands (funnily, in june this year, the US considered the Diaoyu/Senkaku-issue as not to be covered under the US-Japanese defense treaty – while later in september, the US turned 180 degrees and states the exact opposite to grab this fat chance of containing China with their usual holier-than-thou attitude).
But still, a weak nation cannot afford diplomacy, as quoted by the late Qing-Chancellor Li Hongzhang in the light of China’s military weakness back then, that forced her to accept unfair treaties with guns pointed at her head and being generally powerless to negotiate conditions with her predators at all.
So China must definitely prepare for war and back her words with hard, cold power, doing everything necessary to inflict as much damage to Japan and the US as possible, that any attack by them becomes prohibitely expensive to bear for democracies, so that all parties shall pursue the peaceful route of settling this issue.
In short; China should aim for a military balance of terror in the region, effectively deterring the gung-ho politcies of the US to contain her by allowing Japan to unilaterally ’settle territorial disputes’ by grabbing disputed islands and sea-areas.
typhoonq
Well said. I fully agree with you.
r elegant
The U.S. now (October 2010) has ten carriers, not 12. Watch for future reductions.