Is the PLA taking over Beijing? Hawkish officers are increasingly seeing their views become China's policy, says Gordon Chang.
In recent months—and especially since last December—China has pursued an increasingly assertive foreign policy. At the same time, Chinese flag officers and colonels have been making provocative comments in public on topics normally considered the exclusive responsibility of the country’s civilian officials. For instance, this March, Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo staked out a position on the Arctic that was at variance with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
In addition, there's been a spate of unusually hostile public comments from military officers, especially on their desire to engage in combat with America. In February, for example, a Chinese colonel, Meng Xianging, promised a 'hand-to-hand fight with the US.' Meanwhile, Major-General Yang Yi that same month said China 'must punish the US…We must make them hurt.'
At one time, the military was organically linked to the Communist Party. It was the PLA that installed the Communists in Beijing, after all. Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, the first two leaders of the People’s Republic, were military officers. Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, their two successors, however, are civilians, and this has led to what Michael Kiselycznyk and Phillip Saunders call the 'bifurcation of civil and military elites.'
Jiang’s elevation to the top post, shortly after the Tienanmen massacre, marked the beginning of a period of rapid decline of military influence. His tenure witnessed progressively fewer generals and admirals holding posts in top Communist Party organs. For instance, no military officer has served on the Politburo Standing Committee, the apex of political power in China, since 1997. Although senior officers were all members of the Party and formed a potent political block during Jiang’s rule, they lacked the power their predecessors had in the Mao and Deng eras.
Then, the PLA made or broke China’s rulers. It was the army that restored order during the decade-long Cultural Revolution. After that, the top brass twice decided who would govern the People’s Republic. First, Marshal Ye Jianyang got rid of the ultra-leftist Gang of Four in October 1976 and eventually ensured the elevation of Deng Xiaoping. Second, the generals backed Deng and ordered their troops to take back the country from the crowd in Tienanmen Square during the Beijing Spring of 1989. These incidents reinforced the perception in society that the PLA was the final arbiter in China’s rough game of politics.
Since Tienanmen, the civilians have managed to avoid regime-threatening social unrest and so have not had to rely on the generals to keep themselves in power. Yet they haven't been entirely successful in avoiding splits among themselves. As a result, the top brass has gained influence in Beijing since the middle of this decade.
From the middle of 2004, Hu Jintao has courted senior generals for their support in his struggle with former supremo Jiang Zemin, who was trying to linger in the limelight. Hu’s tactics largely paid off. The military, for example, appears to have backed Hu’s somewhat successful effort in the run-up to 17th Party Congress, held in October 2007, to pick his own successor.
Photo Credit: Colin J
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Chris
It’s Tiananmen, not “Tienanmen”
mweber
It is understandable (if unfortunate) that Chinese military leaders are anxious for a fight to prove themselves. When was the last time the PLA fought anyone beside civilian protesters? 1979? I seem to recall that did not go well for the PLA. In the meantime, the US has proven its capability to wipe out Soviet style armies, conduct unchallenged air campaigns, and invade and occupy other nations in the most remote corners of the world, AND adapt to counter-insurgency, while maintaining influence in Asia. I think the Chinese are simply wanting to prove they are a credible military, and are childishly willing to pick a fight to do it. That does not mean they will ACT childishly, saner heads will prevail. While China may not pick a fight with the U.S. in the near future, it is increasingly likely they will pick a fight with a weaker nation (or armed group, watch out Somali pirates!) to prove itself. If I were Vietnam, I would stay on high alert!
McCoy Pauley
Sooner or later the US and China are going to go at it, and China will win. Why? The US won WWII the same way the North beat the South in the Civil War. They outproduced the other guy. Period. We converted our typewriter factories into carbine factories, and so on. Now we largely don’t HAVE any factories TO convert.
“Hey, China, you’re kicking our butts and we’re running low on spare parts for our war machine. Could you send us some?” Yeah, that’ll work.
Face it, sheeple, you already outsourced your future. Enjoy the results.
LaoPengYou
When China and the US go at it.
As you say.
There is a zero chance for China to win.
Only a 100 percent chance for China to lose. Totally.
T E Low
China should just buckle down, keep its mouth shut, improve itself internally, make its core foundations strong (e.g. economy, institutions, state organs, unity of the people), and slowly and steadily build up its military in a quiet manner. Do not be like the loud mouthed bully and vagrant that loudly thumps his chest and declares that he will “definitely kick your ass”. Be like the quiet monk that trains himself humbly and secretly, and shows restrain. But continue building up his kung fu strength until he can face the bully if a life and death situation occurs.
Ultimately, China should be like the monk who can stare down, if not, kick the bully’s ass. But it should also show its restrain and tolerance unless truly pushed too far.
LaoPengYou
To: Think Again
‘Why is there so much vitriol against China ? ‘
Power + Stupidity + Hubris + Perceived Threat = Vitriol
No one likes a bully. But it is not just that China is a bully. Red China is also a very corrupt government. So one does not wish to have a very corrupt government taking over the South China Sea Does one?Now maybe you will need to AMP UP your terminology, such as vitriol, when next speaking about the love of China’s neighbors, for China, in coming years.
Because there is little doubt that this so-called VITRIOL will be disappearing during your lifetime.
Far better you should begin to understand. We are living in a finite world. And we all want a bigger part of the pie. We still keep adding on people every second of the day.
So every day. Our ‘just’ equitable per capita share of the pie gets ever smaller. And this is why. For everyone to have a slightly larger slice of the pie. Then we need to reduce our population.
Unless. Like you. People enjoy having less of everything.
Unless. Like you. People enjoy risking truly contorting our planet into something which is not recognizable to us. Within the next 30, 50 years.
You really must understand. That when population increases from 7 to 9.5 billion. Most of these people will be forced to live on very MARGINAL land. Under very dire circumstances.
But otherwise, then what would be the spice of life. As for me I just very much love knowing that there are at least 2 billion fellow humans, who have a far, FAR much tenuous existence than do I. It just makes me feel so POWERFUL. And let us just keep those fools in the dark about contraception, and let us also not educate their women. No doubt. We can find some cheap garbage to produce. Which they might buy.
Why not sell them Christmas Trees. And Santa Claus Beards? There is NO DOUBT They would buy them! Because. Their young children already have the BIG BELLIES. Often times.
But then. If Red China has already done such a great job of ridding the world of poverty. Then why should one be critical? No doubt Red China will spread its beneficence around the world. Starting in Africa and Brazil.
And hopefully. China can rid the USA of poverty. TOO!
Peter
@ LaoPengYou: The size of the pie can grow an awful lot bigger still, and in many respects that will be good for the planet. Your analysis is too simplistic.
LaoPengYou
Simplistic?
Maybe.
But I am lacking my right hemisphere. So please do not be too harsh.
Basically. Peter. There is already so much information available to anyone interested.
That to repeat it here. Just might fry the rest of my brain. On the left side.
It is always true.
Once one has already committed to a certain point of view.
The chance for positive change even when presented with new better information.
Is probably nil.
So. In your case.
The only solution.
Will be to wait another 20 years. To wait until you gradually shift your present opinion.
As obvious facts today. Become even more undeniable as the reality begins to ever more flood in.
And hopefully. 20 years from today. When reality hits. You will be old enough and financially secure enough. So that you can keep stoned on HASH while Rome burns around you.
LaoPengYou
Of course, there is no doubt that what is said above. Is true.
Even though anyone who might agree with you. Might just need to wait for moderation.
But this is not the main thing. The Main Point.
Growing up in a land which has never been overpopulated.
And even now living in a world which is so very far less overpopulated than some places in Asia.
One just wonders.
Are you really that qualified to speak for the world. About problems related to demography?
My suggestion for you, Mr. Chang. Is to spend the next 10 weeks in the Philippines.
And why? Well then. Just because. At least for once Someone of your great stature might write a true chapter regarding the true travesty of overpopulation.
You know. Mr. Chang. Some people are still not up to speed about the climate impacts of increased CO2. And probably also do not know too much about acidification of the oceans.
These problems are not bogus mystical things which come and go.
So. Mr. Gordon Chang.
While you are blogging.
Still you have NEVER taken any stand regarding the many impacts of significantly increasing co2. You are sitting on the fence.
But it must be a very comfortable fence. Since you have been sitting for so long.
And. Mr. Chang. If you do not get your Chapter truly right. After all these many months.
Then I will just need to tie a rock around one of our dog’s necks. And around my neck. And we will jump into the ocean together.
Because. With all the information available to any good researcher, then how could anyone get it wrong??
Of course. Maybe you believe this impact will be negligible compared to your worst fear. Then why do you not say so.?
LaoPengYou
One of the commenters wrote: “Nobody wants China as an enemy when you can have it as a friend”
But who can not agree with this sentiment?
And I might be able to agree that this relationship might be possible.
Just so long as Red China Gov were located on the Moon.
And the rest of us were enjoying our time back on this beautiful blue marble.
It is very interesting to note.
There are still a few people left.
Who like Alex.
Have not been almost totally brainwashed by the present day press.
Into thinking that Red China and the rest of us.
Can sleep together in harmony.
Hopefully. Someday. Some good demographer will point out the fallacy of this argument.
Maybe in some worthy chapter of some good book!