Adding weight to the view that Mashai is, indeed, the ‘chosen one,’ there’s the fact that he’s also been appointed by Ahmadinejad to 17 different government positions since he was forced to step down as first vice president after just a week in office last July (allegedly under pressure from Khamenei after making favorable comments about Israelis).
Mashai's latest appointment, as Ahmadinejad's Middle East envoy, has only reinforced Raja News' suspicions. With the US leaving Iraq, and the situation in Lebanon becoming more delicate as a result of the tribunal over the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, Mashai's new post will boost his standing both at home and abroad—especially with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp and its Qods force, something likely to serve him well politically in the future.
That’s not all. The appointment of Hamid Baghaei—one of Mashai’s inner circle—as Ahmadinejad's Asia envoy is another suggestion of Ahmadinejad’s intent. Mashai met Baghaei when both worked at Radio Tehran (Baghaei was in charge of the station’s website back then). Baghaei was generally regarded at the time as too incompetent and inexperienced for the post, and was rumoured to only have been appointed thanks to Mashai's help
Baghaei also followed Mashai to Tehran’s municipal arts and culture organization and then to the cultural heritage and tourism office, much to the ire of publications such as Tabnak, which believed that Baghaei wasn’t qualified for such a post.
And controversy has dogged Baghaei in his new position of Asia envoy, after he described the World War I massacre of Armenians by Turks as genocide. This description left many Iranian officials red-faced in front of their Turkish allies. Mashai, however, seems unfazed, and the fact that he’s now bringing his own people to Ahmadinejad's team, where they are being given influential positions, reinforces the suggestion that the president is helping Mashai to form his own circles of power.
So what would a Mashai presidency have in store for Iran and the region? On that, there’s frustratingly little to go on—Mashai hassaid precious little in public on domestic issues, including on the key subject of the economy.
And, of course, whether Khamenei is anyway going to allow Mashai to replace Ahmadinejad is another matter. For now, the hostility shown to Mashai by the clergy and many members of the conservative movement suggests it’s a difficult path ahead. But three years is a long time, and if Ahmadinejad manages to endear Mashai to Khamenei and at least some of the conservatives, then he has a fighting chance of getting his way.
If that happens, it would serve Ahmadinejad’s interests too. After all, Ahmadinejad almost certainly wouldn’t be doing this out of affection for Mashai alone—by getting him elected it would enable Ahmadinejad to maintain his influence after leaving office. And who knows—maybe Mashai would return the favor by helping Ahmadinejad get re-elected after he has completed his four year term.
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chasb_navari2007@yahoo.com
This is reality which either Ahmadinejad nor Khamenei are in power. The power belong to invisible hands which directed by outsidres and both of them and others are only puppets! This is worls policy!!!
For esample everybody belive in Iran’s sanction by US and others, but you can find Coca Cola and all Amesrican cigarates brand which sell in Iran freely without any domestic or outsaider objection!!!
This is only BUSINESS, is’nt?
a Duoist
As much as Khamenei is still in charge, he is old and ill. Whether he survives three more years is problematic. If he is disabled by ill health or should die before the 2013 presidential elections in Iran, then the IRGC will likely non-constitutionally pick/appoint the next president.
Dr. Ahmadinejad knows this. The critical political alliance to build in Iran for choosing the next president is two-fold: secure the blessing of Khamenei if his health holds, but especially get the IRGC to pre-approve a very short list of candidates.
By the way, Dr. Ahmadinejad’s circle is not “conservative.” The Greens are conservatives, loathed by Ahmadinejad’s radicals, self-identified as “principalists.” The most accurate way to identify the Ahmadinejad radicals is as ‘theofascists.’
Since the June, 2009 elections in Iran*, an evolved form of Fascism has taken control in Iran. The 2013 elections will likely consolidate the 2009 successes–particularly in the Guardian Council, now 50% principalist–or else the IRGC will decide to stop simply playing the role of Praetorians and take power by force. Either way, the theo-fascism in Iran grows stronger in 2013.
*The present governance in Iran, in June, 2009, finally achieved all eight clauses of Columbia University historian Robert Paxton’s definition of Fascism. See his “Anatomy of Fascism.”
Farzan
The above comment by Mladen seems more informed than this entire article… I think you’re on to something Mladen.
Mladen
Very nice and informed article. All in all, Ahmedinejad appears more to be exponent of military – industrial complex and nationalist then theocrat. We are talking about circle which is politically pragmatic and not particularly God fearing. Moderate tensions with USA give them more influence as they raise importance of Revolutionary Guard and domestic weapons industry. It seems that clique tries to break loose from control of clerics. Imagine Russia where weakening Central Committee still holds all nominal power but Putin and his buddies try to grab real power…
Ahmedinejad is just one (though currently most influential) member of that circle and decision on his preferred successor is most likely collective decision, to a degree. But someone like Mashai? He seems to be out of mainstream of Iranian political thought since Khomeini grabbed all power. Does it mean ideological orthodoxy is losing power?