India’s role in Afghanistan is hailed as a triumph of soft power. In fact, it has just made conflict with Pakistan more likely.
If the West has had any success in Afghanistan, it has been in encouraging India to make a massive investment there of economic aid, infrastructure projects and national prestige. New Delhi is the largest regional investor in the country, and ranks second among all donors. With the West’s looming defeat in Afghanistan, however, India’s success will prove Pyrrhic, and may well set the stage for another, perhaps nuclear, confrontation between Pakistan and India.
In their usual ahistorical manner, Washington and its NATO allies believed their 2001 occupation of the major Afghan cities signified not only the complete defeat of the Taliban and al-Qaeda, but also an erasure of two millennia of Afghan history and religion that afforded an opportunity to start the country anew. In this context, they looked for other countries to share the enormous cost of nation-building, and India stepped up to the task without having to be asked twice.
And what has India been up to? Mostly infrastructure projects, such as a 250-kilometre highway from Zaranj near the Iran-Afghanistan border to the town of Delaram on the road that connects Kabul, Kandahar and Herat. Indian firms and Indian-government funding are also rebuilding the Salma Dam power project in Herat Province; building the new Afghan parliament house in Kabul; and constructing a power line that will use 600 transmission towers to bring electricity from Uzbekistan, over the Hindu Kush, to Pol-i-Khumri, and thence to Kabul. These and other projects now employ up to 4000 Indian nationals in Afghanistan. In addition, Indian firms are investing in Afghan agriculture and mining, and New Delhi is providing student scholarships, medical aid programs and training for Afghan police and civil servants.
Clearly, Afghanistan’s battered infrastructure needs this help and much more. Like all foreign aid, however, India’s aid has come with accompaniments the Hamid Karzai regime fully accepts, but which tend to drive Pakistan’s government—and especially its general officers—to distraction and deep strategic worry. New Delhi, for example, has built one of its biggest embassies in the world in Kabul, and with it has built four consulates—some media reports say as many as seven—two of which, in Jalalabad and Kandahar, face Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan. In addition, New Delhi has deployed nearly 500 men from the Indian Army’s Border Roads Organization to assist in highway construction, and as many or more paramilitary soldiers from its Indo-Tibetan Police force to guard Indian diplomatic facilities and construction projects.
Photo Credit: Olof Werngren
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Ali.
Afghans will never forget their history.
Who is conducting these polls that shows “36% Afghans think positive of India? Was it an Indian firm collecting data from the NATO?
Study Islam closely, then you will realize that such a poll is full of lies.
Harry
Ali, Afghans are not stupid, as Pakistanis would like them to be. Pathans in Pakistan never wanted to be part of Pakistan and would like to secede. Over more than a century and half ago a fanatic named Said Ahamed of Rai Bareli tried Taliban techniques over Pathans to fight Sikhs. But Pathans deserted him in droves to let him face the music and the fanatic was killed by Sikhs. Taliban is Pakistani creation to push back Afghans in 7th century, while Pakistanis themselves want to reap the fruits of 21st century.
Raja Mujtaba
Harry you seem to have some sort of bias.
Gabriel
I would query whether any of the above comments are without bias? It shows the very emotive and destructive nature of identity and nationalism and the ’successive’ effect it has on commentators that cannot separate their connection to the issues.
I think Michael makes some good points regarding the multiple stakeholders and their very real presence and contributions to the region, and, how important an understanding and recognition of these interests are for developing consistent policy into the future.
The strategic interests and growing ‘partnerships’, i.e. India-Iran, in contrast with India’s relationship with the US, is further complicating the conflict. But I think this may be premature, the threat of civil war and resulting instability of the region if the much considered withdrawal of US and NATO led troops is not managed well is real. A civil war would be the ultimate disaster, and I doubt whether Pakistan or India will be there if that happens. Let’s hope not.
Ehsan Afridi
What hogwash!!! The Pashtuns of Pakistan are extremely pro-Pakistan; we are known for our fierce patriotism
We don’t need westerners like you to speak on our behalf. Thanks.
as for the article, Pakistan will not allow hindustan to get influence or depth in Afghanistan. As soon as the NATOs are gone, odds will tilt in our favour. Afghanistan is our backyard –even Karzai said Afghanistan is conjoined twin of Pakistan. We are fairly well entrenched there….just need to ”ride out the waves” a little longer and see what happens! =)
Harry
Ehsan Afridi, of course you Pakistanis do not want us from west to speak for your suppressed minorities, but you do want our money in billions. If you are that proud refuse to take our aid. we would be happy to see our money used to help people here to cope with economic crisis and see for yourself how long you last.
Ali, Study Islam closely
Ali: “Afghans will never forget their history”
Afghan refugees who have lived in Pakistan for decades are under pressure to go home after the floods destroyed camps that now represent a lucrative opportunity for local property speculators.
Afghan refugees forced out of Pakistan
Rob Crilly and Ashfaq Yusufzai TELEGRAPH 6 September 2010
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/7983173/Afghan-refugees-forced-out-of-Pakistan.html
The human face of Pakistan’s deadly flood
Rania Abouzeid GUARDIAN 7 September 2010
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/sep/05/pakistan-floods-photograph-children
________________________________________________________________________________
Afghans here seem to hate Pakistan as much as anything else, though they often hold Pakistani passports and lived there for years.
Notes from Barbarian Central
Ann Marlowe WORLD AFFAIRS JOURNAL 12 April 2010
http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/new/blogs/marlowe/Notes_from_Barbarian_Central
Jessy.
Anoop. Please read up the biography of Mr. Sheuer. He was the HEAD of the C.I.A Bin Laden unit, and has many post graduate degrees, along with the fact that he studied history as his major in his undergrad.
Please learn to accept the reality that the world does not revolve around India. Michael Sheuer has more experience than the total amount of air you have breathed so far in your life. India does not have friendly ties with ANY of its neighbors and that is a fact.
ONLY when you are hired by the C.I.A, promoted through the ranks and get to lead the Bin Laden Unit because you’re the expert, spend your entire life/career [about 22 years] hunting down the enemies of the U.S.A like Al-Qaeda and etc, then retire with honor, ONLY and ONLY THEN you may get in the line to get a chance to criticize Dr. Michael Sheuer.
Ciao.
Anoop
Jessy thanks for that eye opener. But to be honest, I don’t think my idea was to criticize Dr. Michael Sheuer. His medals and honors however impressive they are, are beyond the point. It will seriously take more than an itch for India to enter into a nuclear war.
Your historian definitely does not have a tinkling of how the Indian polity or the politicians think.
How do you think a nation, the size of India would swallow dollops of insult like the attack on its parliament or the 26/11 attacks in the city of Bombay (Mumbai), but still not do anything to retaliate? Not only does the world know where the perpetrators came from, we all know how the MP5 guns were available in Pakistan in the first place.
Now coming to the point Jessy, Dr. Sheuer in all probability has an impeccable track record. Bravo to that. But honestly, the CIA does not have a clue as to what to do with Afghanistan..Did not know what to do with Iraq (and hence the withdrawal). Now comes for your superhero worship for Bin Laden. Tell us when you guys catch him 22 years and still counting…Lol!!!!
FYI…Try counting how many years the civilization around the Indus has been around for :).
XXX
Anoop
Rufus
Actually Anoop, you’re a little clueless in some areas yourself. It is well documented that the CIA wasn’t part of the “nation-building” disaster in Afghanistan. Scheuer’s piece in the Diplomat a month or so ago sets out very clearly his own policy on that. But the CIA was forced very early to cede control to Rumsfeld and the Pentagon. As for Iraq, the CIA tried very hard to persuade the White House that they had no hard evidence on WMDs or a 9/11 link. Iraq was not a CIA operation. It is a mistake to assume that all elements of the US government think as one.
As for the CIA and bin Laden hunting, again it is fairly widely reported that they in fact had him in gunsight several times, but the decision came from higher up not to go ahead.
This is not defend everything the CIA has done. Scheuer himself doesn’t do that and certainly Tenet has much to answer for. But you might want to do a little more reading before weighing in here.
As for the Indus civilization being around for a long time. Yes, it is a magnificent culture and civilization with much to admire. But this is not especially relevant. Egypt, Ethiopia and indigenous Australians all have their own very long traditions, but that is no guarantee of future success in geopolitics.
All that said, perhaps India will demonstrate its wisdom in Afghanistan in the years to come. For my part, though, I think Scheuer raises a valid point suggesting that you boys might be left holding the bag.
Anoop
Ooops….Had not seen this coming in :). My apologies.
My only issue with the entire article is, why the author seems to be so worried that Afghanistan can be the pivot for an Indo-Pak nuclear war, and specifically why India should be worried about it.
I would certainly have been worried if it was pointed towards Pakistan. A war with India can only send that country into oblivion at this stage of their life cycle.
Anyways, Mikey has got his life to live on and I have got mine :). Dont think the restoration of Afghanistan can mean the end for India. The country will live on. Hey after all, we make humans faster than in any other country….
Good reading…
Harry
Jessey, it appears that you believe CIA is filled with highly competent and smart people, but the evidence rather seem to point other way. It was CIA that plotted to put a chemical in Fidel Castro’s shoes so that his beards would fall off, believing his beard to the reason of his charisma. In spite of spending so much money, USA has never been able to get its money’s worth from CIA. KGB was much better, even Pakistani ISI gets better results. CIA is comparable in terms of performance to Indian RAW. So opinion of people like Michael Sheuer can only be taken with hand full of salt. I remember some famous person saying to effect that ” Except education in science, all other education are essentially ideological indoctrination.”. So it would be as illogical to accept ex head of CIA Bin laden units view on situation in Afghanistan as that of Bin Ladder’s view that west would collapse. After all Bin laden has shown more competence since he is not captured or killed by CIA’s Bin laden unit. Michael Sheuer, like every politician, is trying to cover up his units failures by manufacturing tales of united Muslims world, when the reality points the other way. The problem is many CIA personnel have not upgraded their worldview, since fall of communism, resulting in holding distorted worldviews.
Raj
This article is a reflection of the strength the ISI holds over the CIA. It is sad that the CIA with it’s vast resources have been brainwashed to take the Pakistani point of view, inspite of the fact, that, Pakistanis are indulging in Bimb attacks across the Western world.
Fact is, CIA had a good chance to cultivate strong assets in the Afghan war between 1980-1990. But, the reverse happened. Today, the Pakistanis have a strong constituency in the US clandestine establishment. Time arises for a deep reflection on these groups to ask this question?
‘Whose side are you on? Democracy or Jihadism’
Anoop
The author seems to have gone in depth to analyze India’s precarious situation. But honestly, someone needs to inform the author of India’s history.
India has for long been the victim of global attacks. Both politically and economically. Whether this exhibits the lack of self-defense capabilities or an absolutely callous attitude as to who rules the land is another debate entirely.
The end-result being that the land has stood on. And it is simply for this, every Indian feels proud saluting the national flag. An undying spirit to get on with life…
Now the issue of Pakistan..A history that converges with a greater country in size and spirit. It needs all the materials it can lay its hands on to continue winning the admiration of the people of its land. When they say their greatest enemies are Indians, it just shows how narrow minded their education is. Only the most fanatic of an Indian will ever say that Pakistan is our greatest enemy. The others will just shrug and ask..”Do we have any??”
When a country does not have a single recorded history of attacking another country or does not have the need to instigate any uprisings as a result of the first point, how is it that the author gets so drowned in the usual media and political facade and stand up holding a chequered flag waiting for the war to begin :).
Remember this…”Majority fundamentalism rises only as a result of minority fundamentalism”.
Pakistan has been an itch in India’s butt from the day of its creation. It will remain that way till the last day of its existence. No amount of amaan yatras and bus rides are gonna change that.
After all the existence of Pakistan is the only reason for a defense budget. Once bitten, twice shy..Don’t think India will want another round with China so soon..Lol…
Dan Cedusk
Michael Scheuer’s past predictions have never come true.. US is always a failure in his mind, but not in fact. AND HE IS AN OBAMA HATER.. as if Bush’s polcies really worked.
dove
India has deep historical connections to Iran from persian times, but currently a little uncomfortable with Ahmedinajad who is a bit of a loony. India will play it cautious for now while waiting for a more stable leader to emerge in Iran. In the long run, India’s relationship with Iran is a lot more stable and trustworthy than with the fickle americans who are not looking for friends only for suckers to exploit.
neel123
@ Michael Scheuer,
Your article provides a clear insight into the the minds of the Americans, through an ex-CIA official in close contact with the Pakistanis.
India is not a country that will play the game as you pro-Pakistani Americans would wish. In case of the departure of the defeated US-NATO forces, as predicted by you, India will not walk into the trap.
There will be no political support in India to fill in the vacuum in Afghanistan. India will simply pack the bags and leave Afghanistan to fortify its own frontiers for the future wars.