Coming Nuclear Flashpoint

India’s role in Afghanistan is hailed as a triumph of soft power. In fact, it has just made conflict with Pakistan more likely.

If the West has had any success in Afghanistan, it has been in encouraging India to make a massive investment there of economic aid, infrastructure projects and national prestige. New Delhi is the largest regional investor in the country, and ranks second among all donors. With the West’s looming defeat in Afghanistan, however, India’s success will prove Pyrrhic, and may well set the stage for another, perhaps nuclear, confrontation between Pakistan and India.

In their usual ahistorical manner, Washington and its NATO allies believed their 2001 occupation of the major Afghan cities signified not only the complete defeat of the Taliban and al-Qaeda, but also an erasure of two millennia of Afghan history and religion that afforded an opportunity to start the country anew. In this context, they looked for other countries to share the enormous cost of nation-building, and India stepped up to the task without having to be asked twice.

And what has India been up to? Mostly infrastructure projects, such as a 250-kilometre highway from Zaranj near the Iran-Afghanistan border to the town of Delaram on the road that connects Kabul, Kandahar and Herat. Indian firms and Indian-government funding are also rebuilding the Salma Dam power project in Herat Province; building the new Afghan parliament house in Kabul; and constructing a power line that will use 600 transmission towers to bring electricity from Uzbekistan, over the Hindu Kush, to Pol-i-Khumri, and thence to Kabul. These and other projects now employ up to 4000 Indian nationals in Afghanistan. In addition, Indian firms are investing in Afghan agriculture and mining, and New Delhi is providing student scholarships, medical aid programs and training for Afghan police and civil servants.

Clearly, Afghanistan’s battered infrastructure needs this help and much more. Like all foreign aid, however, India’s aid has come with accompaniments the Hamid Karzai regime fully accepts, but which tend to drive Pakistan’s government—and especially its general officers—to distraction and deep strategic worry. New Delhi, for example, has built one of its biggest embassies in the world in Kabul, and with it has built four consulates—some media reports say as many as seven—two of which, in Jalalabad and Kandahar, face Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan. In addition, New Delhi has deployed nearly 500 men from the Indian Army’s Border Roads Organization to assist in highway construction, and as many or more paramilitary soldiers from its Indo-Tibetan Police force to guard Indian diplomatic facilities and construction projects.

Photo Credit: Olof Werngren

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    1. roxtggub

      I’m not sure where you are getting your info, but good topic. I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more. Thanks for wonderful info I was looking for this info for my mission.

      Reply
    2. John Smith

      Here is a different approach India can take to win them all. Since Muslim nations are never at ease with each other when the external threat is absent. India can leave Afghan with NATO at the same time. After a while the quarrel about who is a good Muslim will break out between different branches of Islam, India can return to Afghan as a good mediator. This strategy will avoid the danger of nuclear flash point between India and Pakistan, as well as establish India as a good partner to all Muslim nations.

      Reply
    3. Fuzair

      So the Pakistanis are paranoid, are we? How come there is no mention of Ayni Farkhor Air Base in this article? The only IAF base outside India? And the recent military training exercises carried out by the IA and IAF there?

      And I’ve heard reports of a second IAF base being planned outside India as well.

      Reply
      • Singh

        Read the following link at pakistan defence forums of all places, for an answer on the Ayni airbase. Your information seems to be slightly outdated.

        http://www.defence.pk/forums/india-defence/65021-why-indian-air-force-tajikistans-ayni-air-base-idle.html

        As for India planning a second airbase outside India, without any concrete proof, you may as well say India is planning a thousand airbases. I sense a hint of paranoia here, what do you think?

        Reply
        • Linda

          It?s rlelay helpful for me which I have ever seen.Its presented well and nicely written which easy to understand.Thank you very much for the information

          Reply
    4. Anon

      Michael Scheuer: “A good deal of the Indian media portrays India’s activities in Afghanistan as successfully winning Afghan hearts and minds and building a long-term welcome for India. This is unlikely.”

      India is interested in preventing Pakistan, its longtime enemy, from gaining too much influence here.

      Fortunately for India, that interest actually appeals to nearly three-quarters of the population, which has a somewhat unfavorable or worse view of Pakistan and tend to blame it for their country’s problems.

      These Afghans tend to view India’s aid work here as motivated primarily to curb the interests of Pakistan, something they strongly support, further bolstering India’ s reputation as a benevolent neighbor.

      India has managed to become one of the most-liked foreign countries in Afghanistan — with almost three-quarters of the population finding India somewhat favorable or better — after committing just $1.2 billion to the country.

      Though some of India’s success in winning over Afghans has to do with historical ties between the two countries, when it comes to administering aid, India is often simply better than the U.S. at developing projects that locals find more tangible and effective.

      Nine years into the war, the U.S. has now begun shifting toward an Indian aid model, focusing on projects that produce brick-and-mortar results.

      India outdoes U.S. aid efforts in Afghanistan
      Tom A. Peter GLOBALPOST 9 September 2010
      http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/afghanistan/100908/india-outdoes-us-aid-efforts-afghanistan

      Reply
    5. Harry

      Right solution for elimination of terrorism worldwide is for West to create a stable Afghanistan. To do this they need the support of Pashtuns or Pathans, as bulk of Taliban and Al-qaeda are hiding in Pakistani Pashtun area. Pakistan, in spite of receiving largess from the West, is unwilling or unable to do West’s bidding. So the solution is public support of Western government for self -determination of Pakistani tribal areas to create groundswell of good will among Pashtuns, in order to create an Asian Kosovo. Once this is done Pashtuns will eliminate Taliban and Al-qaeda in their area in their own way and it would be much more cost effective than current one done with help of Pakistanis. This area along with Afghanistan should be protected by presence of some western troops, so that bulk of Western troops are able to return home far away from harms way.. Many in CIA does not want solution to the problem, because then they will not be able to take taxpayers for a ride and so the status quo will persist. Pakistani government and Military will continue to bleed western taxpayers dry in this tough economic times. It is Pakistanis and not Western taxpayers that created this problem, and so it is unfair to Western taxpayer that they, rather than Pakistanis, should shoulder the brunt of expenses and part with their hard-earned money.

      Reply
      • Zakir

        Fantastic iiotrmafnon. This exactly what I’ve been in search of. I know further individuals who’ll find this helpful as well so, I make sure you pass this along to them as well. A lot of thanks.

        Reply
    6. Andrew Murray

      I read this article three times but did not figure out what Mike is trying to say. Pakistan does not like India in Afghanistan and so it will start a nuclear war to drive India away!!!

      Pakistan army ever too hungry for hegemony of course does not want India (or the West for that matter) in Afghanistan and is backing friendly Afghan Taliban against both the allied forces and India, while at the same time drawing on its credit lines with the West. No wonder the Allied forces are losing.

      India on the other hand is fighting Pakistan on its Eastern boundaries and is happy to see Pakistan engaged on its Western boundaries (also from within its tribal boundaries). Men and material costs of propping up Hamid Karzai government which India-friendly (and hostile to Pakistan) are lower than the cost of facing a Pakistan army and intelligence that is care-free on its Western boundaries and focuses all its attention on waging a “war of thousand cuts” on India. Development activities might not win India too many heart or even ensure a enduring friendly rule in Kabul. In a fragmented frontier state like Afghanistan, India gets a toehold, which will keep Pakistan and its running dogs Afghan Taliban engaged.

      Reply
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