By Andy Sharp
While Kan can rely on support from about 110 lawmakers (40 from his group, and 40 and 30, respectively, from anti-Ozawa groups led by Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Minister Seiji Maehara and Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda), Ozawa leads the largest group in the party (about 150 members) and will be backed by a group of about 50 lawmakers in Hatoyama’s group.
Much attention will therefore be focused on the voting intentions of the remaining 100 or so lawmakers, including a grouping of about 30 left-leaning lawmakers who moved to the DPJ from the Social Democratic Party and 30 affiliated with the defunct Democratic Socialist Party.
When the DPJ swept to power last summer, many had hoped for an end to the factionalism of old school LDP politics. But the internal loyalties on display now betray the DPJ’s much-trumpeted battle cry of ‘change.’
Yet no matter who prevails in the leadership contest, the DPJ will struggle to recover from this gaping schism in loyalties. While Kan has publicly welcomed Ozawa’s decision to run, even if Kan prevails his mandate to lead the country would be diminished. This would especially be the case if Ozawa, like an old dog playing a long-practiced trick (he has previously formed and dissolved two other political parties), quit the DPJ and formed a new party with his backers. Such a scenario would leave the DPJ struggling to find the necessary numbers to govern and would likely force a general election to be called.
If Ozawa wins, he would become the nation’s third prime minister in less than six months and he would come under intense pressure to go to the ballot box, where he would face a frosty public unimpressed that he has yet to fully explain his role in the alleged ‘money politics’ scandal.
Whatever the outcome (and no doubt there’ll be more speculation about a ‘grand coalition’ between the LDP and DPJ), the only real winner of the leadership election seems to be LDP leader Sadakazu Tanigaki.
All the LDP hierarchy need do now is put their feet up and hope the DPJ implodes.
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Nice photo. The ultimate self-serving politician saying he places the citizens’ livelihoods first. Sure he’s a great power broker, but I have to wonder why he still has so many backers at this point. His public approval rating and depiction in the media could hardly be worse.
I’m not so sure that “even if Kan prevails his mandate to lead the country would be diminished”. It’s certainly a possibility, but it may depend on how he wins and other factors such as what happens with Ozawa’s funding scandal, the economy, and public opinion.