All of this has made US defence analysts nervous, especially since most of the Chinese naval modernization, which will include developing the world’s first anti-ship ballistic missile (think aircraft carrier buster), appears aimed at defeating a US-style threat. Additionally, the Chinese have developed a very potent cyber warfare capability and would almost certainly bring such a capability to bear in a fight.
All this said, there are at least some glimmers of hope for peaceful resolution of problems in the region. On June 29, for example, China and Taiwan signed a historic free trade agreement that will deepen economic ties and hopefully lessen the likelihood of a military conflict. Additionally, in a White Paper published in January 2009, China talked about contributing to international security to foster ‘a security environment conducive to China’s peaceful development.’The country’s participation in anti-piracy operations off of Somalia is a positive example of what this may entail.
Arguably, the biggest challenge for the United States in trying to ensure peaceful ties with China will be to accept the simple fact that the Chinese military doesn’t necessarily think like the United States.
US analysts have expressed disbelief in Chinese claims that its military is defensive in nature. Yet seen from the Chinese perspective, this could well be the case. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union had one of the largest navies in the world, yet its mission was essentially defensive in nature with two primary missions—protecting its ballistic missile submarines so they would be able to launch nuclear ballistic missiles if a conflict went nuclear, and defending the homeland against aircraft carrier attacks. From their perspective, these were indeed defensive operations.
With this in mind, it seems quite likely that China is approaching its military modernisation with much the same kind of mindset. A miscalculation in a region so vital to each nation’s interests could easily lead to a crisis. Each side has too much to lose to allow that to happen. But an open mind on both sides would go a long way to making sure it doesn’t.
Captain Gail Harris is a former US naval officer and was the highest-ranking African American female in the United States Navy upon her retirement in December 2001. She was also the first female and African American to lead the Intelligence Department for Fleet Air Reconnaissance Squadron in Rota, Spain—the largest US Navy aviation squadron.
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Alexis
Au Yeung, MD and Executive Vice President for Oracle’s Asia Pacific Division explains that he sees IT spend deetniifly on the rise over the next 3 years. “There is a pretty obvious change of sentiment from last year to this year. Last year people
Gail Harris
All of this (the Chinese military Modernization) has made US defense analysts nervous and on edge, especially since most of the Chinese recent developments, of which includes the development of the world’s first anti-ship ballistic missile. These are aircraft carrier busters, battle ship and cruise ship busters, which appear to be aimed at defeating a US threat in Japan and South Korea. Additionally, the Chinese have developed a very potent cyber warfare capability of shutting down all of the electronics we as a military relies on so heavily almost certainly bring our army to its knees and making a war inevitable. Thus creating the more likely than not circumstantial outcome of regional or global nuclear war.
Don
No one can see China for what it has been doing – “expansionism”. First, Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Macau, then comes the Taiwan dispute, Aksai Chin & Arunchal Pradesh (disputed with India) and here comes the South China Sea haggle. The sad fact is global strategists still can’t see things for what they are! If one can’t decipher the pacific problem, all strategies will be pacific (pun intended). China has brilliantly managed their “peaceful rise” diplomacy and made a big fool off of global strategists all over. There is no such thing. China will continue to shamelessly proliferate and do as it pleases, and even more so with its newfound financial clout. The rest of us can thumb our noses and keep deliberating on yet another pacific strategy with a looming checkmate. Given the history of superbly clever cloaking of China’s policies, my personal prediction is that China will not stop at becoming an Asian hegemon or a world hegemon, which it is destined to become anyway. The US maybe a hegemon today but it is not a true superpower, but China will become both in a real sense. Given all projections, not a single regional or world power or even an alliance of world powers will be able to contain China in the future. Once China gets there which it will eventually, one can expect China to play smart games and take over regions in the Asia-Pacific, and further expand its powers so dramatically that none would be able to challenge it in a thousand years. Now that’s what I call a strategy! I’ve already marked everything from Japan to Australia as China in my futuristic looking world map. Fareed Zakaria has feared that “No one wants to live in a Chinese world order”, and hence a multi-polar world order would be a better proposition. Perhaps that’s his Kissinger pipe dream and these folks should be prepared for rude shocks from China sooner or later and there’s nothing anyone can or would be able to do about it. Given the continued impotence of global think-tanks and ground realities, my forecasts have a high probability of coming true. All those greedy Chinese communists should be congratulated for what they have accomplished so far and what they will in the coming decades. I’m going to teach Mandarin to my children to be better prepared for the world order that is to come in the 21st century.
Michael
Indeed, and full of decent intel.
The main question (somewhat simplified) regarding China is whether or not the US chooses to approach that country as an “enemy” or as another normal country. The consequence for the “enemy” approach I feel would create another Cold War type situation with both sides trying to develop weapons to best the other. The alternative situation might recreate the historical “balance of powers” in early 20th century Europe. The difference is that the “Cold War” strategy elevates the US and China into rival superpowers which effect international relations entirely while the other approach is more multilateral.
ASEAN
One can hardly call it “defensive operation” by ramming unarmed, tiny fishing boats with warships pretended to be sea administrative ships. China’s position in the Southeast Asian Sea is quite different from the Soviet Union, which despite its strength, never intended to challenge the US Navy in order to draw the line of interests. China did just that. China has overreached by claiming nearly the entire sea that clearly belongs to most of the surrounding countries and international traffic.
By claiming that the US is butting into China’s sphere of interest is a false premise to justify China’s aggression in the SA Sea. The US Navy had been traversing that sea for most of the 20th century. Fishermen from all the surrounding countries have made a living on that sea for centuries. China has absolutely no sovereign rights in the region except for those it dreamt up in order to make the case for outright invasion. China wants the resources under that sea, first and foremost, challenging the US Navy for the ownership (which the US Navy doesn’t even claim to have) is just part of that play. The US needs to remain vigilant and protects what is its own right, as well as the rights of all those who share the sea in the region.
Tian
ASEAN,
China’s claim of South China Sea stemmed all the way back from the 1930’s pre-communist-regime days. In fact, both PRC and Taiwan are in remarkable agreement over how they view SCS sovereignty.
Other Southeast countries, on the other hand, are the real late comers to the SCS dispute, of which you accused China of. They started wading in into this issue in the 70’s and 80’s. By pure coincedence, that’s also when oil and gas were discovered there.
harry
a good and unbiased report.