Griffith University’s Paul Williams, an expert in Australian politics and public policy, says that the race is still too close to call.
‘You would have to give Labor the narrowest of leads because of their incumbency and slightly better campaigning. It’s just slightly more likely that Labor will be able to form a government with a razor-thin majority,’ he says.
Should the major parties finish level in the lower house, Gillard would have first option to form a government, yet the three current independents are conservative-leaning and would likely be more amenable to a Coalition government, Williams says.
However, Williams says Australian media watchers should be prepared for some fireworks ahead of the blackout on political advertising. Along with the advertising by the major political parties, industry groups from the mining, healthcare and other industries have also entered the fray in the current campaign with their attacks on the government, while Labor has been supported by its traditional trade union allies.
‘It’s bad for democracy, but if you were a party strategist you’d want to ramp up that negativity. Because it’s so evenly matched, you’ve really got to try and score a knockout blow,’ he says. ‘It’s like a boxing match that’s been going on for 14 rounds – in the 15th round you’re both fatigued on your feet, and you’ve really got to strike that knockout blow to bring them to their knees.’
‘Labor has tried it on economic credibility, saying that Tony Abbott is some sort of economic illiterate. The Coalition is trying to say that the Rudd/Gillard governments have been failures. They’re the only single narratives that we can really put our finger on, if any. So what they need to do is drive that home with a knockout blow or a single powerful ad or something, which we might yet see from the Labor launch coming on Monday.’
According to Sydney Morning Herald political editor Peter Hartcher, Abbott’s official campaign launch marked the beginning of the slide in voter support for the Coalition and back towards Labor.
‘Just when the Liberals needed their launch to give a burst of energy to their campaign, Abbott offered a return to Howardism, without the spending,’ he wrote in an August 14 article. ‘Abbott is positioning as an ascetic monk in a hair shirt, offering the voter a hair shirt of her own.’
Gillard, by contrast, was offering voters major projects including the national broadband network, infrastructure and school spending, ‘a lush set of offerings more becoming a temptress than an ascetic.’
Abbott defended his campaign strategy when questioned Saturday, saying, ‘I’m pleased and proud to be leading a team which wants a better style of politics in Australia and certainly we'll keep running the kind of campaign you've seen over the past few weeks.’
Do nice guys finish last? Abbott may well rue his decision not to ramp up the attack ads. But there’s still time for a final attempt at a knockout blow.
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Douglas
If the Coalition gets pushed over the line, it will be a one-term government.
First Advisor
Apparently there’s some island somewhere where a bunch of primitive farmers and miners are having an election. It’s conceivable some colony of ants or termites are having an election on some alien planet of the galaxy, as well. Does anyone in the universe care?
There is no difference among any of the parties or politicians. Some are stark, staring, raving mad communists, who make submissive, bootlicking house pets look tough and manly, and some are foaming-at-the-mouth socialists, who burst into tears when single mothers can’t afford to take more than one day off a week to go to the beach. None of them are worth a single vote from anyone in the world.
People get the government they deserve.
D Bryant
Silly people make silly comments, someone has to save this country from DEBT.
Lyn
(Quote)Enough to deliver the government an extra two seats and increase its margin in the lower house. Unquote. The numbers don’t add up. Wishful thinking on someone’s behalf.
Ray
This must be a joke. The very same day as this article is posted, the biggest poll in another media of (4,000 poled) puts the coalition in front.
Someone is very wrong here. The media of course !!