This was a point confirmed to me by leading analyst Ayesha Siddiqua, who told me she thought the US will continue to depend on Pakistan’s army simply because Washington doesn’t have many other options now. The US has become ever more dependent on Pakistan since publically concluding it will set a timetable for starting to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan. But by viewing Pakistan’s military establishment as the only guarantor of stability in the AfPak region, the US has arguably stoked the very situation it now finds itself in.
Like any state, Pakistan seeks to maximise its interests. Given the influence of the Army over the state, and especially over Afghanistan policy, it’s unsurprising that it has decided to support the Taliban and its allies as the only viable future client once foreign forces leave Afghanistan. As a result, informed Pakistani observers find it odd that their country is being criticised for following its own direction in Afghanistan when NATO forces have shown little interest in providing an alternative.
Those same observers, including Islamabad-based analyst Imtiaz Gul, point to the fact that the New York Times, one of only three newspapers privy to the voluminous documents prior to their public disclosure last month, chose to focus on Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence relationship with the Taliban rather than the role of US forces in alleged atrocities in Afghanistan.
Intriguingly, the leaks haven’t been a major story in Pakistan. This may have something to do with the disastrous floods that have ravaged the country and the latest spate of violence in Karachi. But there’s also an awareness that Pakistan is again in the international spotlight for all the wrong reasons and the popular view here is that the leaks are a politically motivated attempt by foreign enemies to defame Pakistan.
Ultimately, Pakistan is again becoming the fall guy for the Western and Afghan failure to stabilise Afghanistan. The fact is that US-led efforts in Afghanistan have been poorly managed from the moment the US unilaterally invaded back in 2001 and its reliance on the intensely corrupt Karzai regime and a complex network of provincial strongmen widely resented by ordinary Afghans have been key factors in intensifying support for the insurgency.
Without that basic calculus, Pakistani support for the insurgency would count for little. While the US may seek political mileage out of the WikiLeaks revelations to put pressure on Pakistan, and especially its Army, there are no obvious signs of the special relationship between the two being irreparably damaged.
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SMJ
The article carries no substantive analysis except an already known fact that US and Pakistani Army are still not daggers drawn after the damaging revelations in the wikileaks report. US and Pakistan army have both needed each other and this is why it has been such a long marriage of convenience with one bad patch just before 9/11 and the chances are that it will continue that way. I think more views and articles are needed on how this interaction has affected the people inside Pakistan, the region and the US rather than what is obvious.
Muin Chowdhury
One (and may be the only) justifiable rationale for continuing relationship with Pakistan is that if America dumps Pakistan, it will go with China. That outcome is unacceptable to America and India (more critically to India). In the absence of that possibility, a good method to contain threats that channel to the West with the blessing of Pakistan could have been controlled by de-linking Pakistan from the West. The method worked in the case of Iran, it would have worked for Pakistan too.
SilkRouteTrader
China may not view Pakistan on the same level as India. China may get more strength by improving diplomatic and military relations with India given the state of US. China and India bilateral trade is growing stronger. Increasingly, China may view pakistan as an ally of its staunch enemy US. China-Russia relations (Energy, UN security peers, and neighbours)are also improving and Russia- an ally of India may broker more relations between China and India. Also, China instead of letting Japan and South Korea side with India may let itself. At the end of the day China will ask – Is allying with Pakistan more beneficial to China than allying with India?
Marc
A useless article with even less useful analysis. Fails to inform about anything really. Who is this Qadri guy kidding? Closest Ally? Really? I believe Mr Qadri were to ask Paks they would enlighten him that China is closest ally. Then if Pakistan is a garrison state then so is Turkey, Korea, Iran, and so many more. That Mr Qadri is an oxymoron because acts of terrorism and anti-state activities tolerated in Pakistan show it is a state in search of security. However I would like to inform you that in fact there were elections held recently with a peaceful transition of power-a hallmark of democratic state. Otherwise Iraq, Nigeria, Kenya, are all not democratic either.